The globalization of intelligence since 9/11: frameworks and operational parameters

In the early 21^st century we are witnessing the increasing globalization of intelligence. The phenomenon of international intelligence liaison is central to this process, an area where intelligence and international relations connect. This article highlights the key themes that are currently developing within international intelligence liaison relationships. It asserts that we can identify a trend towards ‘homogenization’ of intelligence and other law enforcement and security initiatives. It even suggests we may speak of something close to ‘international standardization’ among a widening group of partners. These processes are underway to establish viable frameworks and operational parameters for the intelligence liaison arrangements, together with addressing counterintelligence and other security considerations. These convergent ‘regimes’ contribute to the important processes of trust and confidence building, as well as their subsequent maintenance over time. In short, a ‘best practice’ approach is becoming ‘normalized’ operationally, facilitating the optimization of intelligence liaison arrangements.     

中国与俄罗斯对外贸易与双边贸易发展比较分析

中国与俄罗斯在经济转型过程中,随着两国对外开放程度的不断提高,对外贸易与双边贸易都有不同程度的发展,但表现出较大的差异性;俄罗斯进出口贸易发展相对较为平稳,表现出激进式转型中的稳定性对外开放特征;虽然中国已经是俄罗斯商品的重要出口市场,但俄罗斯商品在中国市场上仍然面临着不确定性和其他国家的竞争,中俄双边贸易对俄罗斯的重要性明显高于对中国的重要性。     

Ethical Guidelines in Using Secret Intelligence for Public Security

Pre-emptive intelligence is seen as key to enabling the state to counter terrorism without alienating the minority communities from whom the terrorists hope to gain support. The international nature of jihadist terrorism is placing increasing demands on intelligence agencies to cooperate with new partners overseas and to extend their range of methods, human and technical, to acquire such intelligence. This pressure is creating ethical dilemmas for the agencies at a time when the methods of secret intelligence and their impact on individual rights are the subject of public controversy. This article discusses the implications of the requirement to produce and share actionable high-value intelligence, and suggests a set of ethical guidelines for the British intelligence community. These guidelines aim to help sustain public confidence in intelligence work and in the directions in which this work must develop in order to generate the pre-emptive intelligence needed for public security.     

Bringing Soul to International Negotiation

In this article, the author calls for a shift in training for international commercial negotiation, away from the standard Western linear, rational, fact-oriented style toward training that makes room for "soul." As used here, the term "soul" combines several concepts that integrate learning on human cognition, cultural intelligence, and effectiveness in international management. The article discusses soul in terms of three components: emotion and subjectivity, deep narratives rooted in faith and ethnic traditions, and cultural intelligence. The article presents three negotiation scenarios from around the globe, contrasting first-generation training approaches to next-generation training approaches that would value the unconscious processes of decision making.     

转型中的国际体系：中国与各主要力量的关系

国际体系正在加速转型,其主要标志是:中国和平崛起、9·11后的反恐战争、一种新的超越意识形态及战略竞争的大国双边合作关系正在全球范围内成型.但目前的国际体系仍然是西方盟国掌握主导权,在双边同盟和八国集团与中国之间有一条或明或暗的战略分界线.中国与西方大国既有广泛的合作;又有各种分歧和战略性的竞争.东亚区内多层次、多形式的多边和双边合作在加强,新的地区秩序正逐步显现,中国的繁荣与富强依赖于构建良好的周边关系.     

Neo‐nationalism and Neo‐Atlanticism in Italian foreign policy

The European Union has low expectations for the international climate regime after 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol effectively expires. The United States is not thought likely to sign up to new binding international commitments, whereas EU countries have experienced unexpected difficulties in implementing existing commitments. As a consequence, the European Union may be prepared to settle for a surprisingly weak follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol. At the same time, the European Union will pursue bilateral and regional climate agreements with like-minded countries, parallel to the UN framework and possibly independently of it. Collectively, such agreements could produce an international climate regime that is more robust than what could be agreed at the consensus-based UN level. Nevertheless, the European Union will continue to support the UN process as the only legitimate forum for international negotiations on climate change.     

美国国家安全认知的新视阈：人工智能与国家安全

人工智能作为一种革命性技术,正在从根本上变革国际社会的发展进程及方式。面对这一发展趋势,美国已将人工智能提升到国家安全的高度。人工智能对美国国家安全的影响主要存在于三个方面:首先,人工智能是影响和塑造未来美国国家安全的核心变量。人工智能能够优化美国在国际政治格局中的力量配比,弥合并纠正美国社会内部的分裂和失序状况,并助推美国军事实力实现“跨越式”发展。其次,有效克服人工智能的负面效应是确保未来美国国家安全的关键。人工智能可能引发诸多社会和道德问题,其固有的缺陷也将增加战争决策的风险成本,还可能增加武装冲突的频率和强度。最后,美国强调中国人工智能的快速发展对未来美国国家安全构成严重“威胁”。中美在人工智能领域的竞争已无法避免,美国认为中国正在试图“挑战”美国在高新技术领域的领导地位;为应对美国在人工智能领域对华遏制政策,中国应制定和形成人工智能研发以及应用规则和规范;通过制度化协调与合作来规制中美关系,努力避免“科技冷战”的发生。     

冷战后中国—东盟关系的英国学派分析

本文首先对英国学派的国际社会理论进行了梳理,详细分析了国际体系、国际社会和世界社会的关系,并用此分析冷战后的中国—东盟关系。本文认为中国—东盟之间还没有形成成熟的国际社会,主要依据有:两者缺乏共同的核心价值观,两者关系的机制化程度不高。所以,要改善中国与东盟的关系,至少做到:加强中国与东盟的跨文化交流,真正发挥双边国际制度的作用。     

国际机制在东亚货币合作中的效用性问题

在国际经济体系中,有效的国际制度安排将引起行为体的利益追求以及行为体之间的互动关系发生变化,以致国际关系行为体将在多大程度上遵守国际机制的约束。东亚区域合作具有非正规化、非制度化等特点,东亚货币合作中的机制规范并非完全以制度的形式确定下来。东亚货币合作中的机制属性主要体现在一系列双边和多边的协议中,并且是以基础的机制层次如区域性危机防范、救援机制等为发展点。由于这些发展点具备了机制属性,国际机制在东亚货币合作中的效用性便应得到更多的关注,以使得东亚货币合作能被更好地加以规范和引导。     

论东盟的国际竞争力

世界各国经济国际竞争力的研究与评价,已经受到国际机构、政府部门和企业的普遍关注,成为世界经济研究的热点问题之一。东盟是中国最主要的周边地区之一,也是我国在发展中国家中最重要的经贸伙伴。随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建成,中国与东盟区域经济一体化进程进一步加快,双边经济的互补和竞争关系日显突出。因此,对东盟经济国际竞争力的研究具有重要的现实意义。     

中国与安哥拉石油业的合作风险及规避措施

安哥拉已成为大国石油利益博弈的重要国家之一。对日益借助国际石油市场供应的中国来说,获取安哥拉优质石油同样是石油外交的重点。鉴于中国与安哥拉良好的关系,两国的石油业合作取得了很大成效,但安哥拉特殊的政治、经济环境,也使中安石油业合作面临挑战。探讨中国与安哥拉石油业合作面临的主要风险和挑战,以及进一步完善双方石油业合作的路径和方式,对中安石油业合作的长远发展乃至中国对非洲石油外交的战略构架具有重要价值,亦对中国有效规避海外石油业投资风险、保护海外石油利益意义深远。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易结构优化分析

产业内贸易是当今国际贸易发展的主要趋势,对双边贸易结构调整和优化起着重要作用.中国--东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)作为发展中国家间的最大自由贸易区,影响着东亚以及全球经济格局,产业内贸易发展必将带动双边贸易结构进一步优化.本文运用实证分析方法,对中国--东盟产业内贸易水平及贸易结构进行深入分析.研究结论表明,目前中国--东盟产业内贸易发展水平较低,并且呈现缓慢下降趋势,而以垂直异质为主的产业内贸易结构发展迅速,与产业内贸易发展水平呈现"剪刀差"趋势.     

大国双边关系的另一种记述与解读——评《中外关系鉴览1950-2005-中国与大国关系定量衡量》

《中外关系鉴览1950-2005——中国与大国关系定量衡量》一书，是清华大学国际问题研究所的学者新近出版的一部运用事件数据分析方法进行国家双边关系定量衡量的著述。该书系统梳理了建国以来中外关系的发展情况，覆盖了几乎所有对7组大国关系有影响的重要事件，根据记录绘制了中外双边关系曲线，得到一系列有意义和启发性的分析结论，并建立了一个庞大完整的中外双边关系数据库。这在中国国际问题研究领域具有开创性意义。但该书也存在一些不足和需要完善之处，有待后来者继续挖掘，不断探索。     

“No More War?” Belgian Reception of the League of Nations and Arbitration After the First World War

After the horrors of the First World War, different initiatives were taken to introduce and institutionalise principles of international organisation such as collective security and arbitration in international relations. The League of Nations was founded, and different bilateral and multilateral arbitration treaties were concluded. This article studies the reception of these internationalist principles by Belgian policymakers and diplomats. I will argue that this reception initially ranged from cautiousness to clear scepticism. Although an evolution towards increased trust in collective security and arbitration can be observed between 1919 and 1929, Belgian policymakers' and diplomats' views during this period remained predominantly based on realist premises and beliefs.     

“No More War?” Belgian Reception of the League of Nations and Arbitration After the First World War

After the horrors of the First World War, different initiatives were taken to introduce and institutionalise principles of international organisation such as collective security and arbitration in international relations. The League of Nations was founded, and different bilateral and multilateral arbitration treaties were concluded. This article studies the reception of these internationalist principles by Belgian policymakers and diplomats. I will argue that this reception initially ranged from cautiousness to clear scepticism. Although an evolution towards increased trust in collective security and arbitration can be observed between 1919 and 1929, Belgian policymakers' and diplomats' views during this period remained predominantly based on realist premises and beliefs.     

论1990年以来越南与日本的经济关系

自20世纪90年代以来，越南与日本的经济关系快速发展，其主要体现在两国的贸易、日本对越南的投资以及日对越ODA为主的经济援助等方面。两国经济关系的快速发展，反映了两国在追求各自国家利益上的一致。一方面，越南为发展国内经济，争取更大的国际市场、国外投资以及外国经济援助，积极同日本发展经济关系；另一方面，日本为逐步扩大对越的影响力，通过贸易、投资以及经济援助等方式推进对越经济外交政策。     

金砖国家经济利益的交汇与分歧

全球经济结构正在进行的重大调整和新兴经济体地位的迅速上升为金砖国家集团的出现提供了时代契机。本文深入分析了金砖国家之间的共同经济利益和利益分歧。金砖国家在经济结构互补、改革国际货币金融体系、提升国际经济地位、应对大规模资本流入和碳排放等方面拥有广泛的共同利益,但在双边贸易、大宗商品定价、人民币汇率和国际货币经济秩序改革方式等问题上存在着一些分歧和矛盾。     

CAFTE下的国际货运需求分析——首届中国-东盟博览会后的思考

一、对国际货运需求的理解 首届中国-东盟博览会已于2004年11月3日至6日在广西南宁成功举办,计划以后每年举办一次.随着中国与东盟经贸合作的深入开展,其对国际货运的需求也必将增大.为了应对这种增长情势,对中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTE)下的国际货运需求进行有针对性的分析,将有助于加强双方经贸的紧密合作.     

区域主义视阈下的日本对华外交（英文）

Amid the challenges of a changing international order and driven by a traditional geopolitical mindset, Japan has proposed its Indo-Pacific vision as a framework for regional order. Japan intends to forge a multi-level security system targeting China, while building a multilateral institutional framework economically for compatible competition with China. China should be aware of Japan's strategic intent while strengthening communication and coordination with Japan to manage the bilateral relations on the basis of mutual respect and seeking common ground.     

亚太地区的国际合作与中国-东盟经济关系

过去20年来,亚太地区经济体国际贸易和投资显著增长,经济活动相互依存日益加强。本文探讨在亚太地区各种国际合作机制下,中国与东盟的经济关系和经济互补性问题,并提出进一步促进双方经济合作的对策措施。