Is Russia Sabotaging Democracy in the West?

While there may be some ideological components at stake in the Russian Federation undermining democracy in the West, the Kremlin primarily views interference as a tool to accomplish its strategic interests. Russia is less concerned about regime type (authoritarian versus democratic) and more concerned with how a foreign power advances its strategic interests. While many governments that advance Russia's interests tend to be authoritarian, this is not always the case. Russia does not view non-Western democracies as a threat because the Kremlin considers them predictable and consistent. However, the use of “sharp power” to interfere in the internal affairs of Western democracies is coupled to an assessment of how such interference either promotes Russian interests or decreases Western capabilities to interfere in Russian foreign and domestic policy.     

Russia's Attempts to Undermine Democracy in the West: Effects and Causes

By exploiting pre-existing divisions in Western societies and attempting to sway elections toward candidates palatable to the Kremlin, the Russian Federation has had some success in eroding social cohesion and confidence in the institutions of democracy. But pulling the West down has not improved Russia's position in the world. Russia today is less well-regarded, less prosperous, and less secure than it was before it began its campaign of sowing disorder. Since the Kremlin sees its actions as justified responses to the West's alleged attempts to undermine Russia, this is a price it is willing to pay. Rather than trying to convince Russia to cease its malign activities, Western societies need to look inward. We need to eliminate the societal divisions that Russia exploits rather than try to convince Russia not to exploit them, denying it fertile ground on which to scatter its seeds of disinformation and propaganda. Only then will we solve the “Russia problem.”     

俄罗斯农民的东正教信仰

俄罗斯农民的东正教,大量渗透了农民自己传统信仰的成分,有些是打着信仰东正教的名义,行的是多神教或传统信仰的诸多内容。俄罗斯农民作为一个缺少文化的下层群体,在东正教信仰上,特别迷信于俄国东正教特有的圣像崇拜,专心于神秘主义。对这个问题的研究,不仅能透视出被俄国农民改造了的拜占庭东正教文化—俄罗斯东正教文化的保守落后的实质;也能透视出俄国农民在俄国历史发展中起到的阻碍进步或阻碍改革的历史作用;更重要的是,能透视出俄国,这个革命前农民占绝大多数的国家,因文化的落后而频频引发的社会危机和政治危机。俄国落后的根本原因就是农民因素。     

Russian Intervention in Ukraine: History,Identity Politics,and National Consolidation

Abstract

This paper examines the factors influencing the support for Russia’s Ukraine policy. Western sanctions imposed on Russia have crippled its economy and the general well-being of its people. However, support for Moscow’s Ukraine policy remains firm among the Russian population, who believe that the West has malevolent intentions toward Russia. The Russian elite has skillfully utilized identity politics for national consolidation and to mobilize support for its Ukraine policy by manipulating Russian history, beliefs, and worldviews. Russians see themselves as righteous people who are highly capable of dealing with difficulties and certainly as winners in the conflict with the West.     

Russia’s Neorevisionist Challenge to the Liberal International Order

Abstract

A conventional opinion is that Russia is trying to destroy the liberal international order. Russia indeed defies it, but also justifies its foreign policy with the liberal order’s normative frameworks and reproaches the West for not standing up to these norms. Moreover, Moscow does not present any alternative vision. Russia complains about the internal contradictions of the liberal order: sovereignty vs. intervention, pluralism vs. universality, US hegemony vs. equality and democracy, although it also exploits these contradictions. In fact Russia demands an adjustment of the liberal order rather than its eradication and should, therefore, be classified as a neorevisionist power. Two elements underlie Russia’s at times aggressive foreign policy conduct. The first one, its feeling of being ill-accommodated in the present order, predefines the direction of the policy. The second, the prioritisation of foreign policy over domestic reforms, explains the intensity of Russian discontent and its occasional aggressive manifestations. Russia’s domestic consensus regarding its foreign policy, including views on the liberal international order, facilitates this aggressiveness. Three policy conclusions can be drawn: acknowledging that Russia uses the inherent contradictions of the liberal international order opens up possibilities for dialogue and an eventual overcoming of the crisis; the survival and strengthening of the liberal order depends on its embrace of all major players, including Russia, and hence, the need for some adjustments to the order itself; and finally such adjustments presuppose Russia’s readiness to shoulder responsibility for the (reformed) liberal international order.     

Is Russia Succeeding in Central Asia?

On a number of recent occasions, the top Russian leadership has expressed its special interest in the affairs of former Soviet republics, including the assertion that Russia has a “privileged” relationship with these now independent states.¹ Is this a claim of accomplished fact, of future intention, or perhaps an empty expression of nostalgia for lost status? As we see it, the record of Russian actions in the largest group of these states—the five of Central Asia—allows us to exclude the first and question whether the second is realizable. Russia must contend with the aspirations of those states themselves, as well as the determined interests of China and, to a lesser extent, the West.     

Russian Orthodox Church and Nuclear Command and Control: A Hypothesis

Abstract

The Russian Orthodox Church plays an immense role in current Russian national security policy. The intertwining of the church and the strategic community is nowhere more visible than in the nuclear-weapons complex, where the priesthood has penetrated all levels of command, been involved in operational activities, and positioned itself as a provider of meanings for, and guardian of, the state’s nuclear potential. The first work to highlight the phenomenon of the Russian church-nuclear nexus, this article focuses on the ecclesiastical impact on Russian nuclear command and control. The findings suggest that it is not inconceivable that the Russian military clergy—like the Soviet political officers and contrary to chaplains worldwide—might become future participants in decision making on matters of national security, and that de facto there might be two parallel chains of command authority emerging in Russia, with potential tensions between them. The article outlines the causes of this overlooked singularity and its implications for the theory and practice of international security.     

俄罗斯政治制度变迁与中国转型

俄罗斯的政治制度变迁有其特殊性,其当代的政治体制用“委任民主”、“可控民主”来界定有其合理性。目前,中国的转型是转型国家中成功的特例之一。虽然中国与俄罗斯在整体社会变迁的前提上具有同质性,但转型采取的路径不同,因而表现也有差异。中国应在汲取俄的教训及吸收自己阶段性成功经验的基础上进行新的尝试。     

俄国近代自由主义的历史变迁与影响探析

俄国自由主义是俄国对西方的感应和国内的变迁共同作用的混合产物,它是以欧洲自由主义的变异形态即＂不充分的自由主义＂存在并发挥作用的。从短时段看,俄国近代自由主义随着1918年立宪会议被解散而走向终结;但从长时段看,自由主义作为俄国近代化的产物,它随着俄国近代化的向前发展而逐渐融入俄国社会,成为俄国近代以来政治文化传统的重要组成部分。     

Pushing the Boundaries of the Possible at the Margins of Peacekeeping: The Promises of ESDP–Russia Co-operation for Humanitarian Intervention1

While relatively little attention has been paid to the significance of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) as a newly emerged mechanism in the domain of international peacekeeping, even less research has been undertaken on the potential benefits of its external relations and co-operation with third countries. This article sheds light on such a potential by investigating the relations of the ESDP with the Russian Federation. The current debate on humanitarian intervention tends to reduce the analysis to a single plane of reality, namely the normative one, thus ignoring the material aspects of military intervention. The enlargement of the ontological horizon of research from normative to material factors uncovers the greatest advantage of ESDP–Russia co-operation for humanitarian intervention, namely their mutually complementary peacekeeping capacities. Whilst the European Union boasts a long-standing human rights culture, Russia could offer vast material resources both in terms of manpower and logistics. Ignoring this possible synergy between the ESDP and Russian capacities would be a considerable loss for the cause of humanitarian intervention. Joint operations conducted by the European Union, Russia, and NATO against genocidal governments, the “common enemies”, would not only enhance the cause of humanitarian intervention but also enable common actions and thus mitigate current tensions between the East and West. In many respects ESDP–Russia co-operation actually lags behind NATO–Russia relations.     

当前俄罗斯的东亚政策研究

苏联解体后,俄罗斯的外交政策从向西方“一边倒”转为东西方平衡的“双头鹰外交”,东亚在其整体外交格局中的地位上升.俄罗斯东亚战略的主要目标是要成为东亚大国,其政策主要受到两方面因素的驱动和影响：一是基于对国际和地区均势的追求,二是出于本国平衡发展的需要,以及对自身面临威胁的认知.中俄关系是俄罗斯东亚政策的重心,同时它也积极发展与东亚其他行为体的关系.俄罗斯与东亚的关系在过去十多年里稳步提升,但也面临着俄远东地区开发困难重重、融入东亚经济空间进展缓慢、国内意见分歧等诸多挑战.在世界战略重心东移的背景下,在当前因乌克兰危机而使俄与欧美的地缘政治冲突激化的情势下,俄罗斯将会进一步加强其整体外交政策中的东亚维度.     

Russian Authoritarian Pluralism: a Local and Global Trend?

Russia is a country that has witnessed increasingly authoritarian governance over the last decade. Civil liberties have been curtailed; local and regional political power has been usurped by the Kremlin. Russia remains a democracy insomuch as elections are conducted, but increasingly those elections are so heavily influenced by state control over the media and fiscal elements of social power that substantive Western notions of democracy have greatly atrophied. However, the decline in substantive democracy has received solid support from the Russian electorate. As such, under the leadership of Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, Russia has become an ‘authoritarian pluralist’ state that now expresses long-standing cultural affinity for a strong authoritarian rule under an increasingly thin veneer of democratic principles. Furthermore, variations of this new Russian model seem to be spreading globally.

Democracy is the dictatorship of the law. The stronger the state is, the freer the individual.

Vladimir Putin     

The Practice and Impacts of Russian-style Hybrid Warfare

The term hybrid warfare was first coined by US military scholars and later widely adopted in the West to refer to Russian military operations in the Ukrainian and Syrian crises.In Russia,it is called "Gerasimovism".Russia adapted the idea of hybrid warfare for its military operations in Ukraine and Syria into a Russian-style hybrid warfare that has seen successful results so far.This model is likely to impact future military developments.     

俄罗斯文化的矛盾性及其形成因素

俄罗斯文化具有内在的矛盾性,这与俄罗斯独特的地理环境和历史文化紧密相关。俄罗斯的自然地理条件对其文化形成具有重要作用;俄罗斯处于东西方交界处,地理位置独特,东西方文化在这里碰撞、汇合并相互影响;亚洲生产方式的深化及东方独裁专制的强化与社会上层欧洲化的矛盾分裂;俄自身的多神教文化与拜占庭文化及斯堪的纳维亚文化的对立统一等,这些因素都对俄文化的矛盾性具有重要影响。     

The evolution of the European economy: Implications for Trans‐Atlantic relations

The Russian attitude towards the European Neighbourhood Policy constitutes a serious obstacle to the realisation of the Union's agenda in its neighbourhood. The Russian challenge takes three main forms: 1) with Russia not a part of the EU's overall approach involving the principle of conditionality, the Union's legitimacy and international actorness in general is in danger of being undermined; 2) Russia is increasingly starting to put forward its own model of operation, thus hampering the realisation of the Union's goals in the neighbourhood; 3) Russia is engaging in business activities that are in effect undoing the ENP's energy component. There are no easy fixes to these problems. What the Union must do is believe in its own values and visions: it is only by example that it can promote its ideals outside its institutional boundaries.     

The return of the empire? Russia's counteraction to transatlantic democracy promotion in its near abroad

Russia's recent actions in its neighbourhood have not only upset Western policies but have also reinvigorated arguments that Russia may be promoting autocracy to counteract democracy promotion by the European Union and the United States. They have also underlined a broader problem: that of how illiberal powers may react to democracy promotion, especially when their strategic interests are at stake. This article investigates these issues by studying Russia's interactions with the countries in its neighbourhood and democracy promoters. First, the article argues that even if Russia has contributed to the stagnation of democratization and ineffectiveness of democracy promotion in its neighbourhood, its actions do not constitute autocracy promotion and largely lack ideological underpinnings. Second, Russia's counteraction to democracy promotion stems from its ambitions of restoring its great power status, maintaining its regional influence, and perceiving Western policies as a threat to its interests. Third, when it considers its strategic interests undermined, Russia employs economic and military threats (sometimes incentives) against its neighbourhood countries to make the compliance with Western policies less preferable.     

Familiarity breeds contempt? Knowledge and understanding of democracy,support for democratization,and global city residence in Russia

Using Russian survey data from 2011 to 2012, this article examines public understanding of and support for democratization in a semi-authoritarian context. When knowledge of democracy is weak, and conceptual understanding of democracy is mixed—as in Russia—traditional measures of democratic support inadequately capture demand for democratization; that is, for more democracy than currently perceived. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Russians who adhere to “textbook” political definitions of democracy are more, not less, likely to advocate democratization. Residence in global cities increases support for democracy and democratization, while education fosters the latter but not the former. Other traditional indicators of middle-class status, such as income and urbanization, lack consistent effects. Based on these results we re-evaluate the mechanism linking modernization and support for democracy in developing, non-democratic societies. Rather than exert social-psychological or normative effects, modernization works primarily by raising exposure to global political discourses that define and promote democratic government.     

论国家民族主义对普京执政以来俄罗斯外交政策的影响

民族主义是俄罗斯在历史嬗变中形成的独特思想文化.西化改革失败后,俄罗斯国力和国际地位日趋衰弱,以追求国家利益为核心的国家民族主义迅速兴起,它压倒包括自由主义在内的各种意识形态,成为当代俄罗斯最具影响力的政治思潮.当代俄罗斯国家民族主义作为一种文化,对俄罗斯的外交政策起到了重要作用.本文主要论述了国家民族主义对普京执政以来的俄罗斯外交政策产生的影响.     

俄罗斯新版国家安全战略评析

2021年7月2日,俄出台新版《俄罗斯联邦国家安全战略》,其中有许多新变化值得关注.俄认为,当前国际形势动荡不安,地缘政治紧张局势日益加剧,武力仍是解决国家间冲突矛盾的重要手段.俄当前国家安全面临的主要威胁是美西方针对其进行的"混合战争",具体包括军事威胁、经济制裁和政治施压.为此,新战略提出的基本战略目标是维护国内、...