Madagascar between peace and conflict—domestic capabilities for peaceful conflict management

Despite severe political instability and many political crises since independence, Madagascar has experienced peace for nearly four decades. Unlike the dominant research on causes of armed conflict, this article focuses on the causes of peace. It introduces a new concept—domestic capabilities for peaceful conflict management—to identify factors related to conflict fault lines, civil–military relations and a culture of constructive conflict management, that facilitate the prevalence of peace. The domestic capabilities for peaceful conflict management perspective draws attention away from preventive diplomacy and external intervention and places the focus on internal capabilities for peace. On this basis, the article also analyses the severe crisis in 2009 and how it was handled.     

Research note: Hypotheses about political terrorism during the gulf conflict, 1990–1991

Based on a review of the literature and a logical deductive approach, the author develops 12 testable research hypotheses in connection with the possibility of oppositional political terrorism during the 1990–91 Gulf Crisis and War. The article represents the foundation of future research on one of most important anomalies of this political crisis.     

The Imia/Kardak affair, 1995–96: A case of inadvertent conflict

On Christmas Day 1995, a Turkish freighter ran aground on a rocky islet in the northern Dodecanese islands, setting off a chain of events that would lead Greece and Turkey to the brink of war. Senior officials in Washington later admitted that the countries were literally hours from conflict over an issue of which decision makers in America and Europe were completely unaware prior to military forces being deployed. The Imia/Kardak affair raised significant questions on all sides about how relations between two NATO countries with well‐known, ongoing tensions could have deteriorated so rapidly without drawing international attention till the last moment. The conflict highlighted problems in both Athens and Ankara related to the exchange of information between civilian and military leadership. It also revealed that strategic warning in emerging conflicts might not appear when the cause of the incident remains unknown until after the commitment of forces or when the pace of conflict moves too quickly. In such a situation, decision‐making architecture within a coalition or alliance may prove too cumbersome to react to unexpected problems.     

Conflict regulation or conflict resolution: Third‐party intervention in the Northern Ireland conflict – prospects for peace

This article evaluates previous third‐party efforts to broker a consociational power‐sharing solution on the peoples of Northern Ireland. Instead, an original and dynamic community‐based problem‐solving linkage system proposes co‐operation between Northern Ireland's grassroots constituents, paramilitary groups and political elites. The process would be facilitated by a quasi‐mediator comprising the three Northern Irish Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and four MEPs – two each from the Netherlands and Belgium. This is a vision of how to create a mutually beneficial process linking psychocultural and structural dimensions by promoting dialogue, understanding, tolerance and the sharing of commonalities in beliefs, identity, and behaviors among groups involved in intercommunal conflict situations.     

Third party monitoring in the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict

The 2014 elections brought a record number of xenophobic populist parties into the European Parliament (EP). They have a strong incentive to be more united and active than in previous terms, and they could use the Parliament to shape voter attitudes, pressure mainstream parties to adopt more xenophobic rhetoric, fragment the mainstream right, and obstruct parliamentary proceedings. The rise of xenophobic populism could affect the open society through the EU’s policies and budget if it alters EP debates on issues that split left and right, particularly Roma exclusion, migration and asylum, and EU external policies and development aid.     

Security and discourse: the Israeli–Palestinian water conflict

When conflictive viewpoints are discursively strengthened, they develop into a ‘conflict discourse’ with a specific discursive structure which perpetuates conflict, like the discursive securitisation of an issue for varying audiences. When they are weakened, however, societal discourse can potentially change so that agreement becomes possible again, thus achieving discursive conflict transformation. This article analyses the Israeli and the Palestinian water discourse. On both sides, the dominant discourse structures underscore the conflictive issues regarding the distribution of water between Israelis and Palestinians, thus making communication, let alone negotiation, downright impossible. While Palestinians regard the natural water resources as sufficient in principle and the existing scarcity as entirely politically induced, Israelis perceive the natural water resources as absolutely scarce while receiving major de-securitisation impulses from the possibility of desalination. In the respective (minor) counter-discourses, however, possible starting points for dialogue and conflict resolution are visible.     

Saving the league: V.K. Wellington Koo,the league of nations and Sino‐Japanese conflict, 1931–39

In 1919, VK. Wellington Koo, the most famous Chinese diplomat of the early twentieth century, participated in the creation of the League of Nations at the Paris Peace Conference. Little over a decade later, as Japanese forces expanded into Manchuria and North China, Koo struggled to save the League he had helped found. He argued that inability or refusal to brand Japan as an aggressor would sound the League's death knell. In vain, Koo tried to convince European statesmen that the Far Eastern Crisis was a litmus test of the League's viability as a collective security organization. From 1936 on, League inaction in the face of Japanese, German and Italian expansion left Koo thoroughly disillusioned. The lessons of the League were not forgotten during World War II, when Koo argued that a more effective collective security organization, in the form of the United Nations, be created on a basis similar to Franklin D. Roosevelt's Four Policemen concept.     

Does accountability matter? How electoral systems affect conflict initiation

Recent work on conflict suggests that electoral systems impact foreign policy-making in important ways; however, the discipline has reached different conclusions regarding how different types of electoral systems affect conflict initiation. In this study we contend that legislators are more accountable individually in candidate-centred electoral systems which impacts a state’s decision to initiate interstate conflict. We test our argument using a time-series cross-sectional analysis of 54 democracies from 1975 to 2001. The results provide strong support for the hypothesis that candidate-centred electoral systems result in less conflict initiation than party-centric systems due to higher levels of individual accountability for legislative members.     

‘Walking the tightrope’: The Kosovo conflict and Russia in European security, 1998–August 1999

This article argues that Russia has pursued a policy of inclusive multipolarity towards European security after Primakov's appointment as Foreign Minister in 1996. This policy focused on three dimensions to constrain NATO and ensure a Russian voice in Europe. First, ties with NATO; second, the pursuit of OSCE reform and a European ‘Security Charter'; third, the primacy of the UN Security Council in international affairs. NATO actions in the Kosovo crisis deeply undermined all dimensions of this policy. However, inclusive multipolarity was not discarded by the Russian leadership. The tortuous path of Russian accommodation after May 1999 highlighted Russian attempts to reinstate this policy and restore a Russian voice in European security affairs — with limited success. This article examines the evolution of Russian shifts in this crisis until Vladimir Putin's appointment as Prime Minister in August 1999.     

Preventing radicalisation through dialogue? Self-securitising narratives versus reflexive conflict dynamics

Critical scholarship has warned against basing the prevention of terrorism on a concept of ‘radicalisation’ which implies that violence is inherent to Islam, but various approaches disagree on how to base the critique. This article argues for reading counter-radicalisation policies as narratives in order to identify their potential in terms of conflict escalation. Analysis of the official Danish counter-radicalisation action plan, reactions to it, and reactions to the reactions finds that criticism from the targets of the policy and engaged scholars based on attention to conflict dynamics has had some success in modifying policy from securitising to governing risk. Nevertheless, the potential for re-securitisation remains.     

Measuring international conflict: Developing cross‐country time‐series data

This paper develops a new time series of conflict data from 1948 to the present through statistical estimation of a pooled time‐series of the two most frequently used dyadic events data sets: Conflict and Cooperation Data Bank (COPDAB) (1948–1978) and World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) (1966‐present). The resulting data series is the longest possible time‐series annual data of dyadic interaction based on daily events. The paper also provides an example of performing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis of conflict and trade in a three‐country setting, utilizing the integrated data. Compared to the COPDAB and WEIS data, the integrated data have a large degree of variation and produce forecasting results that are more complex than those from the COPDAB and WEIS separately.     

How do international development agencies approach peacebuilding in a sub-national conflict?

International development agencies often promote approaches that link aid and peacebuilding. However, the gap between what agencies say and what they actually do is demonstrated by the mixed response to subnational conflict in Thailand's Far South between 2007 and 2012. Over this period, numerous agencies demonstrated little interest in addressing the conflict. Some agencies did over time try to support peacebuilding, although domestic government resistance and practical barriers generated obstacles. Conflict guidelines and toolkits were rarely used, while only a few agencies implemented the context-driven and knowledge-based approaches to local partnerships that peace promotion in a complex and politically sensitive environment demands.

Comment les agences de développement internationales abordent-elles la construction de la paix lors d'un conflit infranational ?

Les agences de développement internationales promeuvent souvent des approches qui relient l'aide et la construction de la paix. Cependant, le fossé entre les dires des agences et leurs actions est démontré par la riposte peu constante au conflit infranational dans l'extrême sud thaïlandais entre 2007 et 2012. Durant cette période, de nombreuses agences n'ont guère fait preuve d'intérêt concernant la résolution du conflit. Certaines agences, au fil du temps, ont tenté de soutenir la construction de la paix, mais la résistance gouvernementale au sein même du pays et les barrières d'ordre pratique ont engendré des obstacles. Les lignes directrices et les trousses à outils pour remédier aux conflits ont été rarement utilisés, et rares ont été les agences qui ont mis en ?uvre les approches impulsées par les contextes et basées sur les connaissances concernant les partenariats locaux que requiert la promotion de la paix dans un environnement complexe et politiquement sensible.

¿De qué manera las agencias de desarrollo internacionales abordan la construcción de paz en un conflicto subnacional?

Frecuentemente, las agencias de desarrollo internacionales promueven enfoques que vinculan la ayuda con la construcción de paz. Sin embargo, la brecha entre lo que dicen las agencias y lo que en realidad hacen queda demostrada por la respuesta matizada ante el conflicto subnacional que tuvo lugar en el Extremo Sur de Tailandia entre 2007 y 2012. Durante este periodo, numerosas agencias demostraron poco interés en abordar el conflicto. A pesar de los obstáculos que representaron la resistencia del gobierno nacional y las barreras prácticas, con el transcurso del tiempo algunas agencias intentaron apoyar la construcción de paz. Sin embargo, en pocas ocasiones usaron las normas y los manuales existentes en torno a conflictos. Sólo unas pocas agencias implementaron los enfoques basados en el contexto y en el conocimiento para crear alianzas locales, las cuales resultan imprescindibles para promover la paz en un entorno complejo y políticamente sensible.

Como as agências internacionais de desenvolvimento abordam a construção da paz em um conflito subnacional?

As agências internacionais de desenvolvimento frequentemente promovem abordagens que fazem a conexão entre ajuda e construção da paz. Porém, a variação entre o que as agências afirmam e o que elas realmente fazem é demonstrada pela resposta mesclada a um conflito subnacional no extremo sul da Tailândia entre 2007 e 2012. Durante esse período, várias agências demonstraram pouco interesse em abordar o conflito. Algumas agências realmente tentaram, no decorrer do tempo, apoiar a construção da paz, embora a resistência do governo local e barreiras práticas geraram obstáculos. Orientações e kits de ferramentas sobre o conflito foram raramente utilizados, enquanto que apenas algumas poucas agências implementaram abordagens direcionadas ao conflito e baseadas no conhecimento de parcerias locais que a promoção da paz demanda em um ambiente complexo e politicamente delicado.     

Does political inclusion of rebel parties promote peace after civil conflict?

ABSTRACT

Does the inclusion of rebel parties into the post-conflict political process help contribute to peace after the end of conflict? In this article we examine whether the transformation of rebel groups into political parties actually leads to the development of a durable peace after a civil war. Examining the likelihood of recurrence of civil wars in a country and recurrence of conflict in government–rebel group dyads after a settlement, we find that the inclusion and participation of former rebel parties in national government has an important impact on the likelihood of a durable post-settlement peace. Most importantly, not excluding major rebel parties from access to governing institutions is the most important factor in promoting post-conflict peace.     

ID with SRSG on children and armed conflict——by Ms. Niu Shuaishuai,Beijing Children's Legal Aid and Research Center

正Beijing Children's Legal Aid and Research Center expresses thanks to the Special Rapporteur(SR) for his report. The report details the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and violence on children, and provides many useful solutions.As an organization engaged in protection of children's rights, protecting children from violence is the focus of our work.     

Data development for international research—Phase I: International conflict and national characteristics

In 1986 developers and users of quantitative data in international and comparative politics organized to maintain, extend, and develop major datasets and to provide a stronger basis for coordinating data‐related activities. National Science Foundation funding established for a three‐year period Data Development for International Research. Its first phase (DDIR‐I) focused on improving datasets on both national capabilities and international conflict; and generating renewed efforts to better the data collections on internation events and international political economy. DDIR‐I's work, now virtually complete, augmented the quantity and quality of this national data resource and set the stage for another NSF‐funded project on internation event data (DDIR‐II). A final report on DDIR‐II is forthcoming in summer 1994.     

Elections and “sons of the soil” conflict dynamics in Africa and Asia

Recent research reveals that nearly one-third of ethnic civil wars since 1945 have been “sons of the soil” (SoS) conflicts that pit indigenous populations against internal migrants. Despite important differences across SoS conflicts, many share a common trait as they often escalate during elections. While scholars have examined the causal mechanisms behind electoral violence, the relationship between elections and SoS conflicts has been overlooked. By examining a wide range of cases, the article breaks with previous research that privileges in-depth case studies of SoS conflicts with high levels of violence. Using insights from recent fieldwork in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Indonesia, the article sheds light on the causal dynamics that link elections and diverging levels of SoS conflict. In so doing, it illustrates how the severing of patronage networks and the shifting balance of power towards migrants create fertile contexts for political elites to instrumentalize local grievances. Elections are thus more likely to produce violent SoS conflicts when elites (at both the national and local levels) are able to mobilize supporters by playing upon these grievances, often through the politicization of citizenship and/or the ethnicization of the local sphere.     

Building peace from below—the potential of local models of conflict prevention in Haiti

International media has established an image of Haiti as a disorganised and violent society. However, this article argues that—and reveals why—this characterisation is incorrect. The article explores how the structures and traditions of Haitian local communities react and respond to the needs of the communities and to the disputes that arise within them. It explores the causes of local conflicts and their relationship with the larger conflict picture in Haiti, and furthermore investigates the challenges faced by local models of conflict prevention and how these are affected by national policies as well as by the presence of foreign actors in the country. The analysis is based on a survey and on fieldwork carried out in different regions of Haiti during the period 2007–2013. The article concludes with recommendations to pay more attention to the challenges that local conflict prevention efforts face—as a result of the larger liberal peace-building framework.     

Politics or prejudice? Explaining individual-level hostilities in India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict

ABSTRACT

Multiple explanations have been proposed for what drives India’s Hindu–Muslim conflict. Harnessing novel approaches to data acquisition and analysis, this paper uses insights from an electronic survey with 1,414 respondents to test three prominent theories of why individuals promote conflict with out-groups. The results show that security concerns for the future are strong predictors for a hostile stance and approval of violence. Experiences of violence in the past do not seem to systematically perpetuate hostility. Personal experiences with out-groups strongly correlate with hostile sentiments. These results hold across model specifications, post-stratified estimation based on census data, and a benchmark relying on Finite Mixture Models.     

The “Culture Wars” go global: Three cases of religious conflict in foreign policy

Religious identities based on both religious tradition and religious commitment have been increasingly influential in domestic U.S. politics for several decades, but the assumption remains that such identities are mostly unrelated to foreign policy. The authors suggest that domestic political incentives to expand the culture wars have combined with other trends, including the increasing use of unilateral executive power in foreign policy, to create an environment in which policymakers increasingly are tempted to make foreign policy based on domestic political incentives. Three case studies are highlighted: the “Mexico City” policy requiring foreign non-governmental organizations (NGOs) receiving U.S. aid money to pledge not to provide or educate about abortion, moving the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and efforts in the Trump administration to ban travel to the United States from majority-Muslim nations.