The structure of the international telecommunications regime in transition: A network analysis of international organizations 1

This paper examines the structure of the international telecommunications regime in terms of networks of social interaction and institutional affiliation among international actors. Social interaction and overlapping membership data of 69 international telecommunications organizations in the Yearbook of International Organizations 1994/1995 are analyzed to describe the social structure of the international telecommunications system through network analysis. The analysis reveals a center‐periphery structure with the Western industrial countries at the center and the less developed countries at the periphery. The international telecommunications system is also regionally structured suggesting influence by geopolitical and cultural proximity. The results indicate that inter‐governmental global organizations such as the ITU and UNESCO play intermediate and coordinating roles at the central linking‐pin positions (or cut‐points) in the international telecommunications regime. In summary, this research shows that transitional trends in international telecommunications have affected the interaction patterns of international actors.     

The psychological effects of state socialization: IGO membership loss and respect for human rights

We present an interdisciplinary theory that considers how loss of membership in international organizations affects states’ human rights practices. Drawing mostly from social psychology and international relations research, we argue that states are socialized into the international community through a process of social influence, whereby they are incentivized to comply with group norms by the promise (threat) of social rewards (punishments). Social influence occurs when states form social bonds through interactions with other states. When social bonds are severed, fewer opportunities for social influence occur due to lower information to both the remaining states and the state that lost those social bonds. Thus, we hypothesize that the loss of membership from IGOs reduces incentives to comply with group norms and adversely affects human rights practices at home. A combination of propensity score matching/regression and autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models on a global cross-section across the years 1978–2012 supports the theory. Specifically, losing at least one IGO membership leads to a long-run drop in human rights respect of about one quarter to one half standard deviation.     

A Small State? The Size of the Netherlands as a Focal Point in Foreign Policy Debates, 1900–1940

Do small states behave in an appreciably different fashion than their larger counterparts? Social scientists and historians have, for decades, searched for the defining features that set small states apart from larger ones and have come up empty. This analysis suggests that rather than searching for another set of membership criteria, focus should be on the explanatory power of the discourses surrounding the size of states. As this article demonstrates, based on a reading of Dutch international history from the late nineteenth century to the advent of the Second World War, the changing shape of discourses surrounding the “smallness” did historically influence foreign policy practices.     

Militarized Interstate Disputes and United States Uses of Force

Research on questions such as whether national leaders use force in the international arena to divert attention from problems at home depends on a valid and reliable list of the incidents in which various states have used military force. In the case of the United States, several data sets have been used for this purpose. This research note compares two widely used data sets, the militarized interstate disputes (MID) data, which cover disputes involving all states between 1816 and 1992, and the data originally compiled by Stephen Kaplan and Barry Blechman, which cover only the United States since World War II. This comparison indicates that, in spite of its usefulness for other conflict research, the MID data are not appropriate for analyses of U.S. decisions to use force, including tests of the diversionary hypothesis. The MID data set excludes several categories of incidents relevant to major theoretical arguments about the use of force and includes many irrelevant incidents. These problems are likely to apply to similar analyses of other states as well. The Blechman and Kaplan data set also excludes some relevant events, but its omissions are less consequential. We offer a revised list of United States uses of force between 1870 and 1995.     

A question of sovereignty?

Taiwan's efforts to take part in international organisations (IOs) have received little backing from the international community owing to Taiwan's contested sovereignty. This article investigates under what circumstances and how the European Union (EU) supported Taiwan's participation in IOs and agreements by examining the role of the EU in three success stories: the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) and the World Health Organization (WHO). The analysis of six factors that shaped the EU's approach shows that a strong EU interest in Taiwan's IO participation was a precondition for its support and that once this precondition was met, applicable membership/participation criteria and opportunities for circumventing or neutralising China's opposition then gained in importance. A supportive United States (US) stance could function as a trigger for EU support. Two counterintuitive findings are that the radicalisation of Taiwan's own strategy fostered increased EU activity in brokering compromises between Taiwan and China and that the EU's decision-making mechanisms did not play a decisive role in the formulation of its support policies.     

Nordic involvement in the Baltic states security: Needs,response and success

Since regaining their independence in 1991, the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have sought to bolster their security by applying for NATO membership. This article examines their security context and the security challenges they face. It shows the attempts by the Nordic states to address these problems by offering assistance to the three countries, by supporting them in international institutions and by introducing them to new concepts of security. Thus the Nordic states have tried to ease confrontation in the Baltic, and have created a Nordic project of some importance.     

Outside looking in: non-accession to the WTO

Since its institutional birth in 1947, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) / World Trade Organization (WTO) has mushroomed from 23 original contracting parties to 157 members as of September 2012. Another 28 countries are currently observers, each at varying stages of the accession process. WTO members and observers cover some 99 per cent of the world's population and over 99 per cent of global trade. However, there are still 13 states outside the multilateral rules-based trading system. This paper argues that existing explanations of membership and accession do not fully explain why these states remain outside the WTO, with implications for membership in international institutions generally. The paper tests hypotheses of non-membership based on a lack of willingness (domestic support), ability (technical capacity) or external pressure, and augments these statistical findings with a comparative country-level narrative of WTO (non-)accession decision-making in two small island countries.     

The rise of “diminished multilateralism”: East Asian and European forum shopping in global governance

The article argues that the “principled multilateralism” of the immediate post-Cold War period is increasingly giving way to what may be called a “diminished multilateralism.” Newly emerging global and regional powers such as the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and other rising powers in the Global South are increasingly questioning the legitimacy of the existing international architecture which they regard as a vehicle of the USA and Western countries to conserve their international influence in an era of rapid change. In the process, international institutions have increasingly become arenas of power rivalries which take the form of contests over access and membership, decision-making rules and normative order. The result is an increasing paralysis of these institutions and their inability to solve global problems. One aspect of these institutional power struggles is “forum shopping.” The article shows that East Asia and Europe have both become active players in forum shopping. Three conditions facilitated forum shopping: major crises and external shocks; sentiments of frustrated entitlement in connection with exclusive and discriminatory international institutions, and extra- and intra-regional power shifts.     

NATO: The View from the East

Abstract

Relations between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and NATO have placed more emphasis on cooperation than confrontation since the Cold War, and Ukraine has begun to move towards membership. At the popular level, on the evidence of national surveys in 2004 and 2005, NATO continues to be perceived as a significant threat, but in Russia and Ukraine it comes behind the United States (in Belarus the numbers are similar). There are few socioeconomic predictors of support for NATO membership that are significant across all three countries, but there are wide differences by region, and by attitudinal variables such as support for a market economy and for EU membership. The relationship between popular attitudes and foreign policy is normally a distant one; but in Ukraine NATO membership will require public support in a referendum, and in all three cases public attitudes on foreign policy issues can influence foreign policy in other ways, including the composition of parliamentary committees. In newly independent states whose international allegiances are still evolving, the associations between public opinion and foreign and security policy may often be closer than in the established democracies.     

From Hasbara to the Palestine-Israel Sport Conflict

This analysis highlights the role of sport—particularly football—in nation-building. Using netnographic techniques, it focuses on the Palestinian struggle for self-determination and nationhood through the efforts of the Palestinian Football Association [PFA] to challenge Israeli hegemony and function independently of Israeli surveillance in a sovereign Palestinian nation-state. It explains how the PFA has attempted to harness its status, manifested in its Fédération Internationale de Football Association [FIFA] membership, to threaten Israel’s own FIFA membership and its international image. The value of this analysis stems from the way it embeds the empirical narrative within a broader international relations analytical/theoretical framework that problematises the central concept of “soft power” that has predominated the current “sports and international relations” literature.     

Measuring National Power

Power's central role in international relations theory is unsurpassed, yet considerable debate persists over the quality of its most commonly used indicator, the Correlates of War project's Composite Indicator of National Capabilities (CINC). At issue is whether CINC's main feature, its ability to measure a nation's power relative to other nations' power levels, inadvertently creates errors when membership in the comparison group fluctuates. Using mathematical proofs and an empirical investigation of the major power system, we show that Organski and Kugler (1980) and Gleditsch and Ward (1999) are correct: changes in the comparison group do create errors in CINC. In particular, CINC inadvertently mismeasures dyadic power distributions. Using power transition theory as a context within which to evaluate CINC, we find that it creates artificial power transitions, masks actual transitions, changes the timing of transitions, alters the magnitude by which one state overtakes another, and produces specious relationships between transitions and conflict. We also offer a viable alternative measure, called the Geometric Indicator of National Capabilities (GINC), and demonstrate how its use of the geometric mean retains CINC's notion of systemically-based relative power and immunizes it from the problems afflicting CINC. GINC is strongly recommended for dyadic analyses, especially when membership in the comparison group fluctuates frequently.     

Reform of International Monetary System and Construction of Global Monetary Security Mechanism: Connections and Problems

The international monetary system is the basis to establishing a comprehensive global financial safety mechanism. To understand the internal connections between the reform of the international monetary system and the global safety mechanism has important policy implications. The reform of the international monetary system and the construction of the global safety network are inherently related to each other. Risk management and crisis response are the functions of the international monetary system and serve to ensure the safety of the global fi nancial system; liquidity management and international exchange rate coordination are conducive to the maintenance of the stability of the global financial system. International exchange rate coordination, the control of spillover effect of US monetary policies and the reform of governance structures of the international monetary system contribute to global fi nancial safety. However, the reform of the international monetary system and the establishment of the global fi nancial safety mechanism are faced with problems such as Triffin Dilemma, the technical shortcomings of global financial system, the ill coordination of global and regional fi nancial security network and the growing number of political issues involved. In order to build a sound global fi nancial safety system, cooperation should be enhanced in the following fi ve aspects: to promote the reform of the Bretton Woods institutions; to build the global financial safety network; to establish the liquidity management system; to facilitate the construction of the super sovereign currency; and to deepen regional monetary cooperation.     

Preventing protectionism: International institutions and trade policy

This paper examines the role of international institutions in preventing the rise of protectionism. We analyze states?? choices in trade policy during the current global economic crisis, a situation likely to exacerbate uncertainty in the conduct of commercial relations and to push countries toward ??beggar-thy-neighbor?? trade policies. The main argument of the paper is that the numerous international institutions present in the international system during the current economic crisis serve as conveyors of information and mechanisms of commitment and socialization. They mitigate the uncertainty problem that prevails in prisoner??s dilemma settings such as trade. Economic international organizations increase the flow of information about the preferences and behaviors of its members. Non-economic organizations also have a role to play as social environments that encourage cooperation. Specialized international institutions devoted to trade, such as the WTO and preferential trade agreements (PTAs), not only provide monitoring and enforcement functions but also lock in commitments to liberal trade through legal obligations that make defections costly. We test our argument using a dataset of trade policies during the current economic crisis and of membership in international organizations. The paper finds strong support for the role of international institutions as commitment and socialization mechanisms in preventing the rise of protectionism.     

国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全机制构建:关联与问题JP〗*

国际货币体系是全球金融安全机制构建的制度基础,从国际货币体系改革分析其与全球金融安全机制构建之间的关联性具有重要的政策含义。国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全网构建具有内在的逻辑关联。国际货币体系风险处置和危机应对功能使得全球金融稳定和安全具有了基础保障;国际货币体系对于流动性管理的重视和全球流动性管理机制建设有利于保持全球流动性的稳定;国际汇率协调有利于国际收支失衡改善和汇率基本稳定;国际货币体系改革还争取通过机制安排来弱化货币中心国的政策外溢效应;国际货币体系的治理结构改革是全球金融安全体系的基础保障之一。但是,国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全机制构建面临着诸如国际货币体系安全的内生矛盾、全球金融安全体系短板、全球与区域金融安全网络的迭代以及改革泛政治化等问题。基于国际货币体系与全球金融安全的内在关联,应在促进布雷顿森林机构的改革、构建全球金融安全网、建立流动性管理机制、推进超主权货币建设、深化区域货币合作五个方面,推进全球金融安全体系的建设,保障全球金融稳定。     

Sporting Relations: Diplomacy,Small States,and Germany’s Post-war Return to International Sport

ABSTRACT

Germany’s post-war return to international sport was not uniform across all federations. The nature of each sport—summer versus winter, team versus individual—influenced the speed with which each international sport federation dealt with the issue of Germany’s return. Some federations allowed German participation even before they formally re-admitted the country to federation membership. However, sporting relations were not the only issue considered by international federations. The historical political relations between Germany and its smaller European neighbours were as important. The combination of the historical relationship amongst European states—especially memories of the Second World War—and internal sport federation dynamics affected state relations within the broader international system. The actions taken by the international sport federations provided examples—in areas that would not result in another world war or destroy Western alliances—of how Germany could return as a full member of the international community. The debates regarding Germany’s return across a number of international sport federations reveal the complex interaction among memory, politics, and practical matters.     

墨西哥加入经合组织成效初析

1994年5月墨西哥加入经济合作与发展组织,这对墨西哥具有重大意义.对于墨西哥来说,经合组织为其提供了融入发达国家的更广泛的空间,有助于墨西哥改善和制定出一些重要的公共政策,推动其今后的改革.墨西哥加入经合组织后,可以积极参与经合组织的活动,并尽可能地发挥自己的影响.在墨西哥的影响之下,经合组织正酝酿新一轮的扩大,并增加了对健康、教育等社会事务的关注.在这样的情势下,回顾墨西哥加入经合组织的成效有一定的现实意义.     

Attitudes toward Consent-Based and Non-Consent-Based International Law in a Regional Power Context

International legal scholars have identified and argued for and against new forms of non-consent-based international law. We study variation in Brazilian public opinion about adherence to international law created in three different ways: through a consent-based multilateral treaty, by the U.N. Security Council with the participation of Brazil, and by the U.N. Security Council without the participation of Brazil. Information that Brazil has participated in creating the international legal obligation through a multilateral treaty or membership on the Security Council yields levels of support for adherence to the legal obligation that are similar to those found when the origins of the legal obligation are generic. Information that the international legal obligation was created without Brazil’s participation, on the other hand, results in reduced support for compliance. This difference, which is particularly concentrated among highly educated respondents, is not driven by reduced concerns about reputational consequences or sanctions. Our results suggest that the increased use of non-consent-based forms of international law might be challenged by a lack of public support for compliance.     

Will science and technology undermine the international political system?

The framework, actors and issues of international politics havechanged as a result of the massive effects of advances in scienceand technology, but the fundamental principles and organizationof the international system have not been substantially altered.Science and technology are no more or less subversive of theinternational political system than are other pressures forchange. Rather, the nation-state structure, with all its problems,will be essential to manage this increasingly complex and interdependentworld. The policy processes within nations, in fact, rarelyallow scientific and technological factors to dominate policy,even in international issues in which those aspects are clearlycentral, might be thought to be the overwhelming considerations,and might have been expected to overturn traditional patternsin the international system. With climate change as the primaryexample, it is seen how and why economic, political and socialconsiderations dominate, not the scientific and technological.     

New Changes in the International Situation and China's Strategic Choices

The international situation is evolving more impressively than it has at any time since the end of the Cold War.Globalization has been in decline.Nations are scrambling to gain greater influence.The international strategic pattern is being adjusted.Many countries have problems with public management,and are faced with a new array of social trends and increasingly popular movements.The world is entering a new era full of chaos and anxiety.Mankind once again faces significant trade-offs and choices in peace and conflict,development and recession,openness and isolation,liberalism and conservatism.China strives to advocate win-win cooperation and lead the trend of reform and opening to maintain a favorable external environment despite world chaos,and enhance status and institutional rights in the international system.China's 30 years of development was successful in the process of integrating into the existing international system;China is a participant as well as a builder of the international system,rather than a challenger or a subversive.In the future,with a constructive attitude,China will promote the international system in a more reasonable direction together with international partners,in order to better safeguard world peace and security,and promote sustainable development throughout the world.     

Making an Administrative Trustee Agent Accountable: Reason-Based Decision Making within the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism

Decisions within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol are made by an expert body that acts as a trustee agent of the member states. Trustee agents help overcome the credible commitment problems of their principals and promise reason-based decisions. In contrast to traditional principal-agent settings, trusteeship relations are typically triadic. Beside the preferences of the principals and the trustee, decision criteria provide an external point of reference. They reflect the principals' long-term interest and define the trustee's decision rationale. The triadic structure helps protect the autonomy of trustees and allows for making them accountable for their decisions. Accountability mechanisms intend to ensure that a trustee's decisions are in line with established decision criteria. Against this backdrop, we explore the incentives created by the existing institutional arrangement for the making of CDM decisions and examine selected cases. We conclude that CDM arrangements provide a model for nonpartisan international regulation.