伊斯兰国在阿富汗的现状与前景

伊斯兰国已正式在阿富汗活动,但是阿富汗塔利班反对伊斯兰国在阿富汗的扩张。伊斯兰国在阿富汗招募人员、筹措资金、发动恐怖袭击,并与塔利班展开争夺,这些活动主要依靠阿富汗和巴基斯坦的本地势力。尽管伊斯兰国在阿富汗展开了相关活动并在2015年达到高潮,但是伊拉克和叙利亚地区仍然是目前伊斯兰国活动的重点区域。此外,由于受到阿富汗塔利班和阿富汗政府军的打击,目前伊斯兰国在阿富汗的实力遭到严重削弱,活动区域基本局限于阿富汗的东部地区。未来,伊斯兰国仍将保持在阿富汗的活动,但难以有更大作为。     

试析阿富汗民族国家建构的阶段和特征

阿富汗的民族国家建构从11世纪开始,可以分为5个历史阶段:中古(阿富汗统一国家基础的形成)、近代(阿富汗国家的形成及其早期发展)、现代(阿富汗的独立及民族国家的初步形成)、当代(阿富汗民族国家在曲折中发展)和1978年"四月革命"以后(阿富汗民族国家走向解构).这里面有4个问题值得注意:阿富汗作为欧亚弧型地带多民族国家进行民族国家建构典型之一的意义;第三世界弱小国家的安全保障和中立问题;君主制在第三世界现代化中的作用;阿富汗与伊斯兰世界的密切联系.     

孟加拉国的伊斯兰化及其影响

孟加拉国是穆斯林为主体的国家，穆斯林人口占80％以上。这个国家曾在很短时间内实行过世俗主义，但很快转向了伊斯兰主义。1991年以来，其民主体制运转较平稳，但近年伊斯兰原教旨主义势力和极端势力发展也较快，恐怖活动在增加。于是国际上不断出现孟加拉国将成为“下一个阿富汗”的论调。孟加拉国伊斯兰化是客观事实，但“下一个阿富汗”的论断言之过早。     

20世纪印度尼西亚伊斯兰教育变迁

作为印尼穆斯林社会的重要构成，伊斯兰教育在20世纪经历了深刻变化。一方面，伊斯兰现代主义推动印尼伊斯兰教育现代性的发展，另一方面，独立后印尼政府去伊斯兰化政策促进了伊斯兰教育的世俗化与非政治化发展。在后苏哈托时期，伊斯兰教育面临伊斯兰多元主义的挑战，尤其如何应对伊斯兰激进主义成为印尼伊斯兰教育改革不可回避的问题。     

阿富汗的伊斯兰教

伊斯兰教进入阿富汗已有一千多年的历史,是大多数阿富汗居民的信仰。然而,由于极为复杂的原因,伊斯兰教又不得不与一些前伊斯兰和非伊斯兰的信仰体系分享阿富汗人的精神世界。阿富汗的宗教阶层主要包括毛拉、圣族或圣门的后裔及苏菲派皮尔,由于阿富汗的部落社会特征,宗教阶层或高踞社会之上,或处于社会之外,从而形成阿富汗极为特殊的社会群体。与阿富汗分散、落后的部落社会结构相适应,阿富汗的宗教设施也有自己的特征。苏菲教团是阿富汗伊斯兰教的重要组成部分,不仅影响阿富汗人的精神世界,而且是阿富汗政治与社会生活中的重要角色。     

孟加拉国极端化思潮的缘起、发展及去极端化措施

南亚地区由于伊朗伊斯兰革命和苏联入侵阿富汗等诱因而走向伊斯兰化和极端化,该地区的孟加拉国独立后的两位领导人采取的宗教政策是导致该国走向伊斯兰化和极端化的直接原因。极端化催生的恐怖主义给孟加拉国的国家安全带来了极大的危害,该国政府采取通过教育和发挥妇女的作用等多项措施打击极端化,取得了一定的成效,值得其他国家借鉴。     

阿卜杜·拉赫曼、伊斯兰教与阿富汗国家的形成

阿卜杜·拉赫曼是阿富汗近代史上最有远见卓识的领袖人物之一,在长达21年中,他不仅以军事手段削平了地方割据势力,建立起了一套比较完整的中央与地方管理体系,尤为重要的是,他试图以伊斯兰教构建政治合法性和国家认同,以超越因地域、民族、部落等因素造成的分裂。正是在阿卜杜·拉赫曼统治时期,阿富汗作为现代民族国家才渐具雏形。     

阿富汗伊斯兰化进程刍议

公元7世纪中期,伊斯兰教进入阿富汗及其周边地区,由于特殊的地理与人文环境,阿富汗的伊斯兰化经历了一个曲折而漫长的过程,与伊斯兰世界的核心地区相比,阿富汗地区的伊斯兰教更多地容忍了当地的各种信仰体系。然而,阿富汗的伊斯兰化却是伊斯兰发展史上的一个重要环节,它不仅为伊斯兰教进入中亚、南亚和中国提供了通道,而且抵御了什叶派向东伊朗的扩张,同时,突厥人的伊斯兰化也与阿富汗地方王朝的努力有密切关系。     

南亚主要伊斯兰极端组织现状

南亚（包括阿富汗）穆斯林人口约4．2亿，其中巴基斯坦、孟加拉、阿富汗、马尔代夫为穆斯林主体国家，四国穆斯林人口比例均在80％以上。南亚是受伊斯兰极端主义威胁最早、最严重的地区之一：极端组织较多，恐怖事件频发。“9·11”事件后各国都援引相关法律打击取缔极端组织。巴基斯坦取缔了15个伊斯兰极端组织及其变体。孟加拉被印度及西方称为恐怖组织新“天堂”，据称境内的极端组织不少于15个，政府已取缔3个。阿富汗是伊斯兰圣战运动的策源地之一，塔利班时期极端势力达到巅峰，目前还活跃着塔利班、“基地”和伊斯兰党等组织。印度以查谟和克什米尔地区及东北几邦较为集中，政府已公布12个恐怖组织的名单。     

“伊斯兰国”在阿富汗的渗透及其前景

“伊斯兰国”在阿富汗的渗透经历了悄然崛起、迅速扩张和扩张停滞三个阶段.其活动特点也随之调整,从和平宣传招募转向暴力控制威慑.阿富汗政府治理缺失、安全力量不足、经济落后是“伊斯兰国”势力在其境内蔓延、扩张的根本原因.当然,“伊斯兰国”在阿富汗扩张的制约因素很多,主要有意识形态上的抵制、部落传统文化的对立以及阿富汗塔利班的牵制.目前,“伊斯兰国”呼罗珊分支已无力恢复到全盛期的规模,但其圣战萨拉菲思想的影响不容忽视,不能排除其可能进行战略北移,从阿富汗北部向中亚渗透.     

Afghanistan's parliamentary election: towards the path of democracy

The parliamentary election in Afghanistan in September 2005, seen as the last step towards the establishment of a broad-based government based on democracy, depicts the overall political situation and power struggle among the involved parties, mainly the Islamic parties, the international community (mainly the USA) and the administration of President Karzai, all with different agendas. The immediate winners of the election were the Islamic parties, who not only used their wealth and power but also the ‘ethic card’. But they also had backing from the Afghan government and the Americans. This paper investigates what this election mean to different parties active in Afganistan's politics; the people of Afghanistan, its government and the USA. Will this election lead to the establishment of a democratic society or enhance the power of Islamic extremists and warlords?     

From Cottage Industry to International Organisation: The Evolution of Salafi-Jihadism and the Emergence of the Al Qaeda Ideology

Al Qaeda after the invasion of Afghanistan can now be understood as not only an international terror organisation but an ideology which inspires groups with similar goals of a supranational caliphate. The Al Qaeda ideology draws from long standing historical Islamic concepts that date to the time of Muhammad. The ideologues of the organisation, most notably Ayman al Zawahiri, have cleverly used these ideas and the works of other Islamists to create not just a terror organisation but an ideology designed to unite disparate groups of Islamic radicals around the world.     

How Many Lives Do the Taliban Have?

After having participated in the civil war and later ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s, the current Taliban have a third life as insurgents against the Afghan government and its foreign supporters. Their aim is to return to power and establish an Islamic system. Pakistani shelter and support, guerrilla warfare, and terrorist tactics allowed the Neo-Taliban to extend their influence, particularly to the south and east of Afghanistan. They used the weakness of the Hamid Karzai regime to set up shadow governments. Since even the coalition forces have abandoned the aim of defeating them, the Taliban are guaranteed survival after foreign combat troops leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014. Due to the different interests of the main stakeholders—the Afghan government, the Taliban, the United States, and Pakistan—it is unlikely that the conflict will end by negotiations any time soon. Thus, the civil war will continue. When the Taliban try to extend their reach beyond rural areas and into non-Pashtun districts, they will meet tough resistance. Therefore, it is likely that the fragmentation of Afghanistan will persist and that the Taliban will not return as rulers of a united Afghanistan.     

Pakistan: An Unsettled Nation

Pakistan faces many problems. The struggle over the country's Islamic dimension is undecided. Pakistan continues to be a hotbed of Islamic fervor. As evidenced by the frequent interruptions of civilian rule by military regimes the country is not sure which course to follow. Violence has become Pakistan's trademark. The jihadi culture is frightening. Poverty and underdevelopment are wide spread. The educational system is a mess. Integration of the different ethnicities has not been completed. Enmity characterizes the relationship to India, mistrust that to Afghanistan. Its nuclear weapons capability is looked upon with suspicion by Western countries. Fundamental changes will only be possible if Pakistan finds its way to democracy.     

Engaging with the post-secular moment in post-9/11 Afghanistan: the search for a ‘humanist’ political discourse

9/11 and the subsequent war on terror in Afghanistan have severely challenged the idea of a world politics based on secular modernity. While the post-9/11 Afghan society remains troubled with the post-secular conflict between the so-called Islamic-terrorist and secular-democratic forces, the need for a ‘humanist’ political discourse that could pave the way for peace has become paramount. This paper explores the viability of ‘post-Islamism’ as an alternative humanist political discourse. It sets out to demonstrate how a post-Islamic humanist discourse, which is defined by the dialogic process of developing a hermeneutical understanding of Islamic philosophy, has the potential to not only carve the way for peace amidst perilous entanglement between politics and religion in post-secular Afghanistan, but also vindicate Islam of its unjustified denigration in the contemporary world.     

失去的十年：美国中东战略失败的理论探讨

十年前的“9·11”事件极大地改变了美国国际关系理论的走向,以“文明冲突论”为外交政策的理论指导,推行“武力反恐”和“民主改造”政策,引发伊斯兰世界反美情绪高涨。美国与伊斯兰世界的矛盾原本是二战后美国主导的世界经济秩序造成南北贫富悬殊的政治经济矛盾,而美国新保守主义却从唯心主义的思维方式出发,过高估计自身力量推行“大中东民主”,使得美在冷战后本有可能进一步巩固中东地位变得影响力大不如前。奥巴马上台后,虽然明确放弃布什时期“文明冲突”理念,努力缓解伊斯兰的反美情绪,但已很难超越中东已有的现实,十年错误路线导致的“外交后遗症”不是“灵巧外交”短期内所能挽救的。     

The Taliban and Islam

This paper examines the aims, motives and methods of the Taliban, the present rulers of most of Afghanistan. In accordance with their fundamentalist views the Taliban have established an Islamic system which focuses on the implementation of Shariah. This paper argues that the Taliban apply directly the divine injunctions which they have drastically sharpened - that means without being sanctioned by act of law of men. The government which the Taliban have set up has so far reached only a low level of institutionalization; the real power emanates from their leader, Mullah Omar.     

The Taliban and Islam

This paper examines the aims, motives and methods of the Taliban, the present rulers of most of Afghanistan. In accordance with their fundamentalist views the Taliban have established an Islamic system which focuses on the implementation of Shariah. This paper argues that the Taliban apply directly the divine injunctions which they have drastically sharpened ‐ that means without being sanctioned by act of law of men. The government which the Taliban have set up has so far reached only a low level of institutionalization; the real power emanates from their leader, Mullah Omar.     

Why Foreign Fighters?: Historical Perspectives and Solutions

Insurgencies that recruit foreign nationals to join rebel groups in various civil wars around the globe are a source of growing concern to policymakers. Despite attention focused on recent Islamist groups, foreign fighters are a phenomenon that is neither new nor uniquely Islamic. In conflicts from the Spanish Civil War to the Afghanistan War, insurgencies consistently recruited foreigners by framing the local war as one that threatened a shared transnational identity group and necessitated a defensive mobilization. It is therefore possible to draw lessons about combating their flow through counter-recruitment from a wide array of historical cases.