加快建立中韩自由贸易区推动东亚经济一体化

随着全球竞争的加剧,各国均把区域经济合作作为促进本国经济发展及提高本国在国际中地位的一种有效途径,而目前东亚区域经济合作却处于较低水平,特别是东亚的几个最有影响力的国家仍没有消除障碍而进行合作,使得东亚经济一体化困难重重,不利于东亚经济的发展,不利于提高东亚在世界经济中的地位。本文主要探讨如何通过加快中韩自由贸易区的建立,对东亚经济一体化起一个重要推动作用。一、东亚经济合作取得的进展及问题(一)新的进展东亚在这里主要是指东盟10国、中国、日本和韩国,20世纪90年代以来,随着国际经济环境的新变化,东亚地区不同形式…     

东亚产业发展的新变化及其影响

一、东亚产业发展的新变化及原因 20世纪90年代以来,东亚产业发展出现新变化,雁行发展模式已式微,新的发展模式正在酝酿之中。在新模式下,国家经济发展水平不再是地区产业布局的决定性因素。东亚区域内产业水平性分工增加。随着中国在从劳动密集型到技术密集型诸多领域的产业的迅速扩大,中国在东亚产业体系中的地位有所提高。     

泰国产业竞争力现状及中国与泰国贸易拓展潜力研究

本文使用产业竞争力指数、贸易强度指数、贸易竞争和互补指数对泰国的产业发展进行分析,结果表明:总体上看,2000~2015年,泰国的产业总体竞争力有所增强,但优势产品的数量有所减少。从出口看,泰国与美国、欧盟、日本和中国的贸易紧密程度均有所降低,与日本的贸易合作最为密切;从进口看,泰国与美国、欧盟的贸易紧密程度降低,与中国、日本的贸易紧密程度上升,与日本的贸易合作最为密切。2000年以来,泰国与欧盟、美国和日本的竞争强度都有所提高,而与中国竞争强度有所下降,双方出口产品在国际市场的竞争趋缓。从双边互补性看,泰国出口与中国的互补性减弱,泰国进口与中国的互补性增强。从产业内贸易看,泰国对中国在48类产品上的产业内贸易处于优势,低于与美国、欧盟和日本具有优势的产品数量。     

日本参与东亚国际分工战略目标、形式的调整与影响

日本作为东亚地区唯一完成工业化现代化的国家 ,在东亚的经济发展与既有东亚国际分工体系中 ,扮演着十分重要的角色。但是 ,日本所倡导的东亚“雁行模式”国际分工 ,是一把“双刃剑” ,对日本来说已在长期发展中显露了双重效果 ,90年代以后 ,其负效果日益突出起来 ,这不仅对日本经济发展不利 ,更重要的是影响了东亚国际分工的发展 ,因此 ,调整参与东亚国际分工的形式与目标 ,建立双向开放的国际化经济 ,就成为日本参与东亚国际分工的新课题。     

巴西工业竞争力分析

巴西是拉美工业发展水平最高的国家。经过90年代的经济改革,一方面,巴西原有的工业基本都保存下来,但新增的产业部门和生产能力很少;另一方面,私有化和外资并购导致工业企业产权发生大变动,工业品出口所占世界市场份额明显下降,但在微观层面,工业企业的生产效率普遍有所提高。文章对巴西四大工业部门当前的竞争力状况做了具体分析,并指出了巴西提高工业国际竞争力面临的几个主要问题。     

浅析拉美客户工业及其对就业的影响

20世纪70年代以来,墨西哥和一些中美洲国家通过客户工业的制成品出口迅速提升了国际贸易地位。历经40多年的发展,墨西哥的客户工业逐渐从劳动密集型产业向知识密集型产业转型。在这一过程中,它对墨西哥的出口和就业作出了重要贡献。但客户工业就业也受到美国经济周期、激烈的外部竞争、客户工业与国内经济二元分割和人力资本投资不平衡等不利因素的严重影响。客户工业以前仅被当作就业政策的一部分,后被视为国家创汇的"机器",将来应把其纳入国家的经济发展战略。     

美国与东亚之间的经济失衡及其成因探析

美国与东亚之间的经济失衡及摩擦由来已久,经历了20 世纪60 年代至70 年代美国 与日本经济失衡及摩擦为主的阶段、80 年代至90 年代中期亚洲“四小龙”和日本与美国经济失衡 及摩擦为主的阶段,以及其后中国与美国经济失衡及摩擦为主的阶段。美国与东亚经济失衡是世 界经济发展不平衡规律起作用的结果,主要表现在二战后东亚经济的迅速崛起以及美国经济的相 对衰落。战后加速和维持东亚与美国发展不平衡的具体原因是：东亚与美国经济发展模式的差异、 东亚与美国储蓄和投资率差异、国际产业转移与国际分工的变化以及美元全球霸权体系的确立。 我们认为这种失衡局面是难以长期维持的     

外商投资与我国同东亚地区的经贸合作

９０年代以来，中国大陆与日本、韩国、香港、台湾两省（以下简称东亚地区）的经贸关系发展十分迅速，特别是东亚地区外商在我国投资设厂与合资办厂的势头旺盛，我国由此发展了出口导向的制造业与加工装配业，并与东亚形成了较为密切的产业分工格局。随着外商在我国开展投资竞争，我国与东亚地区产业分工格局正面临新的变化和重构。东北亚地区未来的国际分工格局将是垂直分工与水平分工交叉的多元化分工格局，从而有利于各国各地区依据各自要素禀赋优势和市场优势进行分工合作。     

东亚悖论:经济依存与安全戒备

目前对东亚安全起重要作用的中美日三大国在经济上处于一定程度的依存状态。一般来说,经济依存是政治与安全合作的基础。然而目前美国及其战略伙伴日本却"倒行逆施"加强对中国的围堵,使得目前东亚的地缘政治竞争反而变得愈加紧张。为什么造成这样的悖论?本文认为,东亚的安全局势受两个结构性因素的影响:一是由相互经济依存带来的国家间合作的要求;二是传统的国际政治结构带来的国家间地缘政治竞争。之所以出现这种受双重结构影响的状态,原因在于经济依存关系没有彻底克服传统的国际政治结构性影响,是"不平衡与综合发展"规律的作用。"不平衡与综合发展"规律使得各国融入全球经济的程度不同,各国彼此之间在经济上相互依存程度不同,不同的国家在经济全球化进程中所发挥的作用不同。这三者在国际政治中产生的结果是,地缘政治的竞争仍在一定程度上在一些国家间发挥着结构性作用。这样,在这种双重结构性因素共同的作用下,东亚安全局势处于一种"悖论"状态。     

能源要素禀赋与俄罗斯产业结构初级化倾向研究

具有能源要素禀赋的俄罗斯借助国际油价大幅度上升的有利时机,扭转了经济长期衰退的颓势,并实现了经济的快速增长。但是由于能源产业在宏观经济中的地位不断提高,导致工业结构中产生了竞争力强的能源部门与竞争力弱的制造业部门并存的双重结构。同时,能源产品的出口具有绝对贸易比较优势。俄罗斯工业结构和出口产品结构过度倚重能源产业的局面,将可能使俄罗斯产业结构出现初级化特征,进而不利于俄罗斯提高产业结构水平。     

The “Japan Card” in the United States Rapprochement with China, 1969–1972

United States rapprochement with China should be re-examined by taking into consideration the American negotiating approach towards Beijing regarding the role of Japan, the United States' major Asian ally and China's long-term rival in East Asia. Whilst announcing the Nixon Doctrine, which increased pressure on Japan to strengthen its defense and regional responsibilities, Nixon and Kissinger used the so-called “Japan Card,” Japan's possible military resurgence and China's long-term fear of it, as a tacit negotiating tool to justify to Chinese leaders the continued United States military presence in East Asia. This article examines the impact of the United States rapprochement with China on the American negotiating process with Chinese leaders for the continuation of the United States–Japan Security Treaty and to what extent it changed China's policy toward American relations with Japan.     

中日韩东亚共同体构想指导思想比较

中日韩对建立东亚共同体达成共识后,各界对东亚共同体的前景并不乐观。从各国关于东亚共同体构想的指导思想上看,日本是为了摆脱对美国的依赖,应对中国崛起,提高本国在东亚的竞争力和影响力;韩国是为了摆脱夹在中国和日本之间的"三明治"地位;而中国更多地从"和谐世界"理念出发,为本国的发展创造和平的环境。尽管中日韩对东亚共同体的意义和作用有深刻认识,但三国指导思想的相互矛盾影响了三国的切实合作,同时,现存的领土问题、主导权之争、美国因素等都是现实障碍。因此,处理好中日韩与美日韩的关系,加强中日韩合作是推动东亚共同体获得进展的关键。     

中国、美国、东盟三边关系略论

中国、美国、东盟三边关系自形成至今,经历了几个不同的发展阶段,每个阶段都有不同的内涵。当前的中国、美国、东盟三边关系较为典型地反映了当今国际社会国家间矛盾与共同利益并存的复杂局面,因而形成于冷战时期的传统三边关系理论无法对其进行合理的解释。未来中国、美国、东盟三边关系的发展将受中美关系的走势、东亚区域一体化、中国的发展及其对外战略的选择3个关键因素的影响,其走势较为乐观。     

Immigration and economic development in Eastern Asia

This work describes recent trends in East Asian migration and their economic effects. The great waves of emigration of the past have largely ceased from Japan and the "dragons" of East Asia, and all have become countries of illegal immigration, return of emigrants, and legal entry of professionals. All the countries except Hong Kong have maintained strict immigration policies in order to protect their traditional and homogeneous societies and the employment and income of their own citizens. But despite active encouragement of industrial displacement to countries with cheap and abundant manpower, the labor shortages in these countries have become so severe that they have had to tolerate increased immigration. There is little evidence that immigrants have taken the jobs of natives or caused their incomes to decrease. They appear to complement shrinking local labor forces in these countries of drastically reduced fertility. The annual growth of the active population is predicted to decline from 523,000 in the 1980s to 227,000 in the 1990s in Japan, from 231,000 to 149,000 in Taiwan, and from 400,000 to 300,000 in Korea. Full employment was achieved in Japan in the early 1960s, in Taiwan in the late 1960s, in Hong Kong in the early 1970s, and in Korea in the late 1980s. Full employment was the major factor prompting relaxed immigration controls in these countries. The foreign workers are concentrated in less skilled jobs in dirty or dangerous industries that are shunned by the local population. Opponents of liberalized immigration policies cite the supplementary expenditures for infrastructure and services necessitated by the workers as well as for integration of workers desiring longterm settlement, especially if they are of different ethnicity. No definitive conclusions can be drawn about the overall positive or negative impact of immigration in East Asia without specifying the perspective from which the analysis is made--economic or social, short or long term, from the employee's viewpoint or the employer's. The consequences of importing manpower must be studied in relation to possible alternatives.     

Britain and Japan: Long-Range Images, 1900–52

The Anglo–Japanese Alliance signed in 1902 was revised substantially in 1905 and 1911. It survived the First World War and did not lapse until 1923. For two decades, it enabled Britain to withdraw its navy from East Asia, leaving its commercial interests to the protection of Japan. Meanwhile it enabled Japan to expand its influence in Korea and China. There was not an immediate breach of the alliance, but interests clashed in China in the difficult world of economic collapse in the 1930s. When they failed to come to an accommodation, Japan declared war on Britain in 1941. After the war, Britain shared with the United States the task of policing the military occupation of Japan. But when that occupation came to an end in 1952 during the anxious days of the Korean war, the vast majority of Japanese believed that their country's future rested with Washington.     

Britain and Japan: Long-Range Images, 1900-52

The Anglo-Japanese Alliance signed in 1902 was revised substantially in 1905 and 1911. It survived the First World War and did not lapse until 1923. For two decades, it enabled Britain to withdraw its navy from East Asia, leaving its commercial interests to the protection of Japan. Meanwhile it enabled Japan to expand its influence in Korea and China. There was not an immediate breach of the alliance, but interests clashed in China in the difficult world of economic collapse in the 1930s. When they failed to come to an accommodation, Japan declared war on Britain in 1941. After the war, Britain shared with the United States the task of policing the military occupation of Japan. But when that occupation came to an end in 1952 during the anxious days of the Korean war, the vast majority of Japanese believed that their country's future rested with Washington.     

Contesting soft power: Japanese popular culture in East and Southeast Asia

During the last two decades, Japanese popular culture industrieshave massively penetrated East Asia's markets and their productshave been widely disseminated and consumed. In this region,Japan has recently emerged as a cultural power, in additionto representing an industrial forerunner and model. The aimof this article is to explore the connection between popularculture and soft power by analyzing the activities of the Japanesepopular culture industries in East Asia, and by examining theimages their products disseminates. This study is based on exportdata, market surveys, and interviews with media industry personneland consumers in five cities in East Asia, arguing that theimpact of the Japanese popular culture lies in shaping thisregion's cultural markets and in disseminating new images ofJapan, but not in exerting local influence or in creating Japanese-dominated‘spheres of influence’. Received for publication December 18, 2006. Accepted for publication May 10, 2007.     

Why Japan Could Revise Its Constitution and What It Would Mean for Japanese Security Policy

This article seeks to make sense of the policy debate on constitutional revision underway in Japan, to consider what international and domestic factors are driving the debate forward, to assess the range of proposals currently on the table, and to gauge the likelihood of actual constitutional change. Additionally, it considers how various forms of constitutional revision, if actually implemented, might affect Japan's military doctrines and capabilities; the extent of its alliance cooperation with the United States; its devotion of military capabilities to un operations; and the repercussions for Japan's regional relations in East Asia.     

Japanese diplomacy towards Korea in multipolarity: history and trend

This article shows that in situations of multipolarity Japan has been active and adroit in dealing with the developments on the Korean peninsula, which is a microcosm of the strategic situation in Northeast Asia. It shows such a dynamic by examining two periods of multipolarity in East Asia: the era of the Russo-Japanese War and the détente era of the early 1970s. Japanese diplomacy in the 1970s was carried out under the constraints of its peace constitution and under United States protection. But, even subject to such conditions, Japan actively worked to diplomatically promote its position on the Korean question. Though mainly a historical review, this article provides evidence that supports a realist explanation for Japan's activist foreign policy. This trend also helps to explain the recent activist initiatives in Japanese diplomacy towards Korea in the post-Cold-War era.     

Japan, Australia and the United States: little NATO or shadow alliance?

In a rapidly changing geopolitical and strategic environmentin which the current US administration is willing to demonstrateto the world that the pursuit of its national interest willnot be encumbered by multilateral forums, what role will USbilateral alliance partners such as Japan and Australia playin redefining the international order, especially in their areaof primary interest – East Asia? This paper examines anAustralian proposal for establishing an informal security dialogueat the ministerial level comprising the United States and twoof its bilateral allies in the Asia-Pacific. While the dialogueprocess has begun, the success of any such structure, however,will be largely coloured by accommodating the very differenthistories and strategic cultures that have developed withinthese countries, and the very different expectations other regionalstates have of them. Through the examples of the war on terrorand the war against Iraq, this paper argues that there is littleevidence of structured co-operation at the ministerial levelin place. Further, any exclusive high-level security dialoguewhich forms around this troika will incur the suspicion of manyEast Asian nations, as it may be seen as a platform for unrestrainedUS unilateralism and exceptionalism, which may in turn havenegative implications for Japan and Australia's continuing rolein Asia.