Political Violence and the Illicit Economies of West Africa

This comparative analysis draws on field research in several West African countries to illustrate the dynamic relationships between political violence and organized crime in this sub-region. These relationships are often transactional, and almost always on a temporary basis. While some alliances of convenience may be forged, in other cases an adversarial relationship exists between organized crime and terrorist networks. In some cases, key actors within West African governments have benefited from these relationships. We then examine recent policies and strategies pursued by the U.S. and the international community that, in the name of combating terrorism, seek to constrain the illicit economies of the region, but in doing so may do more harm than good. The article concludes with some policy recommendations based on this analysis.     

卢梭国际政治思想辨正

卢梭关于国际政治的思想比较容易引起误解,一方面,他的论述虽然深刻,却散见于各种著作与残篇;另一方面,其理论立场复杂,既洞察政治现实,又致力于探讨这些现实背后更深层次的人的自然本性及政治权利原理。把卢梭归入现实主义者或理想主义者之列,都是失之简单的做法。对于作为国际政治最大痼疾的战争状态,卢梭没有轻易设想应当如何完全摆脱,但对何为合法战争则尝试加以探讨,这可看作是一种旨在缓解战争紧张状态的理论努力。     

政治文化视阈下的俄罗斯与欧洲关系

俄罗斯与欧洲关系深受政治文化的影响和制约.政治文化可分为观念性文化和结构性文化,观念性文化在政治文化中处于核心地位,决定结构性文化发展的方向.俄罗斯与欧洲政治文化中,结构性文化存在着相似之处,但是观念性文化具有较大的冲突,这也决定了俄罗斯不可能真正融入到欧洲,唯一现实的战略目标就是做一个与西方平等的伙伴.     

Labelling and Legitimization: Justifying Political Violence in the Basque Country

This article focuses on the role of labelling in the discourse employed by the Left-Wing Nationalist movement in the Basque Country to legitimize the use of violence for political ends. The approach in this article goes beyond classic labelling theory. I demonstrate that radical Nationalists do not passively undergo their being labelled as deviants (fanatics, terrorists) by society, but develop counter-labels instead to define their opponents and re-label themselves.     

Rethinking Ethical Journalism in the Worsening Socio-Economic and Political Crisis in Zimbabwe

Abstract

This article reviews the practice of ethical journalism in Zimbabwe. It reports on a study that engaged with both public and private journalists through in-depth interviews, to rethink ethical journalism in the worsening socio-economic and political situation in Zimbabwe. The study used thematic analysis informed by the communal approach or sociology of journalism ethics to analyse journalists’ perspectives. Several factors were found to be causes for unethical journalism practice, namely, political interference; poor economy; corruption; biased editorial policies; political activism; and interests of media owners or funders. The findings of the study reflect parallelism or antagonism between the public and private media in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the article calls for a common view based on the communal approach. It argues that social responsibility must be the norm in the face of corruption and economic challenges. An independent media body should be appointed by the Zimbabwean government to preside over the public media as the first step towards ethical journalism.     

东欧国家经济转轨与政治转轨关系

1989年后,东欧国家同时进行的经济和政治转轨之间的关系错综复杂.一方面,经济转轨的沉重代价不利于政治转轨的顺利进行,政治转轨期内的动荡局面妨碍、甚至延缓了经济转轨的开展;另一方面,随着双重转轨的推进,经济和政治转轨间又越来越多地表现为一种相互促进的关系,经济的私有化为多党议会民主制提供了日益广泛的社会基础,政治制度的改变则强化了私有化和市场化的选择,多少缓冲了经济转轨的负面影响.因此,总的来看,经济转轨与政治转轨进程间往往存在着一致性.     

Domestic Political Institutions and Exchange Rate Commitments in the Developing World

Policymakers use a fixed exchange rate regime to signal their commitment to low inflation and to exchange rate stability. Increasing economic integration and the rise of democratic institutions make it more difficult for policymakers to maintain the credibility of this commitment. We use binary probit (with a variety of corrections for autocorrelated and heteroscedastic disturbances) to test hypotheses relating democratic institutions to exchange rate regime choice on a sample of 76 developing countries over the period 1973–1994. The empirical analysis indicates that domestic political preferences—as measured by the structure of domestic political institutions and the fractionalization of the party system—influence exchange rate regime choice. We find that floating exchange rate regimes are more likely in democratic than in nondemocratic polities and that democratic politieswith majoritarian electoral systems are more likely to fix their exchange rates than those with systems of proportional representation.     

Globalisation,Transnational Political Mobilisation,and Networks of Violence

This article examines how globalisation processes provide new incentives and opportunities for non-state political entrepreneurs to build transnational political movements. Drawing on the literatures on non-violent social movements and transnational networks, the article examines terrorism and political violence as components of the ‘repertoires of contention’ used by radical transnational groups seeking political change. Examples from both the pre- and post-9/11 periods are provided, and the implications for traditional models of state security are discussed. The article concludes by contending that the combination of increased levels of globalisation and the emergence of new networks of violence is creating a fundamental shift in the international security environment, in which the distinction between internal and external security threats is increasingly blurred. While state security strategies are reflecting these changes, less attention has been paid to the political implications of these changes. New security responses need to also be matched by new sets of political strategies at the global level.     

2008年初肯尼亚政治危机反思

2008年初,肯尼亚政治危机的导火线是奥廷加及其领导的"橙色民主运动"对总统选举结果强烈不满.当年的"全国彩色同盟"解体,分裂为"全国团结党"和"橙运"两大派,是双方矛盾不可调和的结果.奥廷加的崛起除得益于肯尼亚盛行的族性政治外,同他的改革派面貌和建立小族--地区联合阵线的主张与宣传活动有关.这次危机的解决和大联合政府的成立归因于来自国内外的巨大压力.非盟和前联合国秘书长科菲·安南发挥了关键性的调停作用.大联合政府面临宪法改革、土改等诸多问题,但双方为了各自的既得利益,取得进一步的妥协是可能的.     

埃厄纷争何时了——对埃厄1998～2000年战争的反思

埃厄冲突源于1885年《柏林条约》之后欧洲列强对非洲的瓜分.双方的武装冲突从1962年开始,时断时续,一直延续到本世纪.文章认为,双方在2000年6月15日签订的和平协议不仅远未阻止混乱和暴力,而且可能导致该地区发生新的冲突.     

Political Violence and Regime Change in Argentina: 1965-1976

Argentina, from 1965 to 1976, experienced three major changes of power, two of which were regime changes. What caused all the instability in such a short period of time? The tranquility of the early sixties was shattered by political violence. In 1965, there were fewer than ten incidents per month. By June 1976, before the last military coup, there were over 300 incidents per month. With historical and quantitative data, this analysis will show how political violence can undermine regime stability. Original data were generated to study the consequences of political violence during this period, based on Argentine news sources.     

论偏好和国际制度的关系

理性主义认为,行为体的物质收益是客观存在和固定不变的;偏好只是行为体在追求收益最大化过程中可能出现的结果排列出来的一种方式,是对结果的一种等级排列,因此是外生给定的。建构主义不否认收益的物质性和客观性,但同时强调收益与理念的关系,认为理念根植于社会互动,并在社会互动中得以塑造,具有主体间性,所以收益需要预先的主体间性的承认;偏好是理念的一种外显形式,在互动中会发生变化,不能先于互动而存在;在一个给定环境中,行为体偏好所有可能结果的一个特殊等级排序,是因为他们相信这将满足某个更深层的目标;偏好通过形塑行为体的收益,促使他们重设目标,并据此调整行为,最终影响国际制度安排。     

Public Support for Political Violence and Paramilitarism in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

Most of the research on paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland has concentrated on either the historical origins of paramilitary organizations or the background characteristics of individuals who engage in this activity. Less attention has been given to analyzing public attitudes in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland toward the use of paramilitary violence as a political tool within this society. In this paper we argue that one of the reasons for the intractability of the conflict and the current impasse over the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons is the widespread latent support for paramilitary activity among the civilian population in both these societies. Overall, the results suggest that only a lengthy period without political violence in Northern Ireland will undermine support for paramilitarism and result in the decommissioning of weapons.     

Global Credit Markets,Political Violence,and Politically Sustainable Risk Premia

How do international financial conditions affect civil unrest? Existing studies examine the domestic economic roots of political violence but say little about the role of external financial conditions. We explore the interactions between international lending, government policy, and domestic unrest. In particular, we note that because of sovereign risk and defensive lending dynamics, credit ratings and interest rate premia are endogenous to expectations about civil violence. We test these claims using instrumental variables techniques and daily data on sovereign bond yield spreads, credit ratings, and episodes of civil violence in 59 developing countries from 1990 through 2004. After correcting for endogeneity, we find that exogenous increases in the price of foreign capital are robustly associated with increased odds of civil conflict. Primary commodity dependence, low economic growth, and poverty can also increase the odds of civil conflict by reducing access to foreign capital.     

Political Freedom, Political Instability, and Policy Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries

This paper examines whether democracy and other major characteristics of political institutions have any significant consequences for private investment. I isolate three political determinants that may affect property rights and private investment: political freedom, political instability, and policy uncertainty. The major findings in this paper can be characterized as follows: Political freedom promotes private investment, particularly through the channel of improving human capital formation. Political instability, as measured by the variability of political freedom, has a negative effect on private investment. Finally, policy uncertainty, as measured by the variability of government capacity, adversely affects private investment. These findings have been tested rigorously through using variables controlling for both domestic and international conditions.