俄罗斯对外政策的政治文化背景及其影响

俄罗斯拥有十分独特的政治文化 ,这种政治文化不仅决定了俄罗斯人与他国人民不同的处世哲学和社会价值观 ,而且直接影响着俄罗斯对外政策的制定和实施。冷战结束后 ,俄罗斯的传统政治文化受到了国际形势和俄战略环境剧变的强烈冲击 ,受其影响 ,俄罗斯的对外政策也发生了重大变化。     

布什政府对俄罗斯政策成因分析

美国对俄罗斯政策主要由美国在国际体系中的实力地位、国内因素、美对俄认知等因 素决定。冷战后, 由于国力差距悬殊, 美国掌握着美俄关系的主动权;21 世纪初, 美国共和党政府 上台后, 凭借“一超”的实力地位, 追求主导世界秩序的“单极”战略, 在对外政策中奉行美国利益至 上的“单边主义” , 强调地缘政治利益、重视传统安全, 以实力和对抗解决问题;俄罗斯大国倾向、外 交战略、国家的“非民主”特征导致美对俄非良性认知等使得布什政府视俄为战略竞争对手, 实行弱 俄、防俄政策。     

上海合作组织对俄罗斯的战略意义

由于中亚地区在地缘政治、地缘经济（战略性能源）和国际安全方面具有重大战略价值，冷战后，特别是“九一一”事件后，美俄加剧了在中亚地区的争夺。面对美国咄咄逼人的攻势，俄罗斯艰难应对。在维护俄罗斯的中亚战略利益、打击中亚“三股势力”、缔造俄南部和东部稳定周边环境、构建区域经济一体化等方面，上海合作组织对于俄罗斯而言具有不可替代的战略意义。     

乌克兰政局动荡背后的俄美利益博弈

冷战结束后,随着俄罗斯对外政策的调整,俄美关系的"蜜月期"很快结束,矛盾和分歧不断加深,这突出体现在双方对独联体地区特别是乌克兰的争夺上.九一一事件后,美国以反恐为契机在中亚实现战略突破,并通过支持"颜色革命"在独联体地区推进全球"民主"战略,使俄罗斯在地缘政治上面临强大压力;同时,随着国际市场能源价格的持续走高,俄罗斯经济得以全面复苏,自信心日益增强,进而在独联体地区对美国展开全面回击.乌克兰由于其重要的战略地位及在后苏联地区仅次于俄罗斯的影响力,自然成为俄美争夺的"桥头堡",这也是造成乌政局动荡的重要原因.     

俄罗斯国家安全战略的变化及影响——基于新旧两版《俄联邦国家安全战略》的对比

国家安全战略是俄罗斯整体国家战略的重中之重.近年来,随着国际格局的变迁和地区局势的动荡,俄罗斯地缘政治环境、军事安全形势和经济发展状况均有一定程度的恶化,俄罗斯正面临着自冷战以来前所未有的安全压力.本文分析了俄罗斯新版《国家安全战略》提出的背景,对比了其国家安全战略的变化.本文认为,俄罗斯国家安全战略的更新和升级是对当前困境的重新认知和有力回应,未来俄将会根据新版《国家安全战略》对国家政治、经济、军事和对外战略进行调整,以谋求国家安全和利益的最大化.这一系列战略的调整决定了未来俄罗斯的发展方向和重点,也将对欧亚地缘政治环境和国际关系走向产生深远影响.     

后苏联空间:俄罗斯的战略依托及大国博弈

后苏联空间是伴随苏联解体出现的一个单独的地缘政治区域,呈现出"一大多小""一强多弱"结构.在俄罗斯主导下,各国在政治、经济、人文和军事上建立了紧密联系.该地区构成了俄罗斯的战略安全和战略发展空间,是俄罗斯的"战略利益区""传统利益区"和"切身利益区",对俄具有重要的地缘政治意义.同时美欧对后苏联空间的介入与影响日益增强,极大恶化了俄罗斯的地缘战略环境,使俄在该地区的政策实施受到掣肘.俄罗斯在后苏联空间积极发展以俄罗斯为主导的依靠独联体、俄白联盟国家、集体安全条约及欧亚经济联盟等组织框架内的合作,积极推动地区一体化建设.尽管国际形势瞬息万变,后苏联空间在俄罗斯对外战略中的重要地位和优先方向这一原则不会改变.后苏联空间是俄罗斯重振大国地位的重要依托.     

俄罗斯与欧盟关系的机制构建及前景

冷战结束后,俄罗斯和欧盟都面临着艰难的内部转型和对外关系的重建问题.在这一进程中,俄罗斯与欧盟关系的发展无论对于后冷战时期欧洲格局的重建,还是对于俄罗斯国内的转型和欧盟的深化与扩大,在很大程度上都具有决定意义.自独立以来,相对于同其他大国及地区的关系,俄罗斯与欧盟关系的发展可以说是较为稳定和深入的.而这种积极态势的出现,与俄欧在地缘、经济、政治和安全等领域的相互依赖的基础上所形成的机制构建有很大的关联性.     

略论俄美在乌克兰的竞争态势

乌克兰地处欧洲地缘政治中心 ,历来是大国争夺的对象。“冷战”结束以后 ,乌克兰成为俄美两国进行地缘政治角逐的主战场。俄罗斯和美国围绕乌克兰社会、政治、经济、外交的发展方向展开激烈竞争。俄美两国在乌克兰既有相近的共同利益 ,也有难以调解的尖锐矛盾。当前 ,乌克兰对于俄罗斯的重要性在普京实施的强国战略中日益突出。与此同时 ,美国也加大了影响乌克兰的力度。     

地缘政治与美国东欧反导计划

苏联解体后,美国和俄罗斯的地缘政治角力依然存在,有时还很激烈.美国在东欧计划部署反导系统是其推行遏俄政策的产物和新发展,引起俄的强烈反弹,将双方之间的地缘政治角逐推到一个新高点.双方虽然因此矛盾加剧,但不会爆发新冷战.     

地缘政治视角下的俄罗斯对外战略与中俄关系冷思考

俄罗斯地缘政治的变迁与其外交战略是息息相关的,这也直接影响到俄对中俄关系的定位。随着俄地缘政治安全环境的恶化和实力的相对下降,在未来一段时期内,由于俄仍处于社会转型之中,其主要注意力仍将集中在国内经济建设和社会发展上,为尽量避免与其他大国发生摩擦和对立,其对华战略将有实用主义的特征。从长远来看,中俄关系隐含着不确定因素。     

Dual engagement: France and the Persian Gulf

With the end of the Cold War international relations began anew without the bipolar constraints of two ideologically opposed superpowers. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on 2 August 1990 represented the first challenge to the nascent post‐Cold War Persian Gulf security environment. Within the region, France is once again increasingly active in the economic, political and military fields. The re‐evaluation of Washington's ability to remain engaged at its current levels within the Gulf may be attributed in large part to a growing sensitivity in Riyadh and other Arab capitals to the visible US presence coupled with an American foreign policy which is, at times, inconsistent. The net future effect of contemporary trends may be one in which the Gulf Sheikhdoms welcome French ascendancy and US decline. France has experienced its own foreign policy transformation marked by the leadership of President Chirac. Where President Mitterrand sought the role of power broker in regional affairs, President Chirac seeks increased influence and importance.     

American diplomatic realism: A tradition practised and preached by George F. Kennan

George F. Kennan's work remains pertinent to the contemporary debate over American foreign policy in which voices calling for a realistic conduct of American diplomacy have been faint. Kennan's thought contains a framework that can be used to examine critically the drift in American diplomacy from the realist assumptions held by the American Founding Fathers towards the liberal or Wilsonian school of international relations. Wilsonianism has seized the world view of contemporary American diplomats and statesmen, particularly during the Clinton administration. Kennan's analysis provides a salutary word in the debate over the course of post‐Cold War American foreign policy that takes Wilsonian assumptions for granted.     

The Anglo-American “Special Relationship”: The Lazarus of International Relations

Scholars have variously queried the existence of the Anglo-American “special relationship,” consigned it to history as “special no more,” or demanded that Britain choose between its European and American relationships. These critiques have become increasingly prevalent since the Cold War. Yet the current British government, like many before it, continues to portray a choice between America and Europe as a “false choice,” and the “special relationship” has arguably deepened in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. This article contends that international diplomatic history can contribute much to understanding the “Lazarus-like” quality of the “special relationship.” Specifically it argues that a number of critical continuities in post–World War II British foreign policy survived the end of the Cold War and have since contributed heavily to the determination of the British foreign policymaking elite to maintain the “special relationship” at the same time that Britain pursues a leadership role within Europe.     

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy was dominated by the strategic goal to contain Communism. Human rights and democracy were of secondary importance. In the post-Cold War period, the promotion of human rights and democracy as foreign policy concerns rose in prominence. In the spirit of Andrew Pierre, who once characterized arms transfers as "foreign policy writ large ," this study questions whether the transfer of U.S. arms mirrors America's foreign policy goals. To what extent do U.S. arms transfers reflect a concern for human rights and democracy? As a foreign policy instrument, do U.S. arms transfer patterns mark a transition between Cold War and post-Cold War worlds? To address these questions, I examine the empirical linkage between U.S. foreign policy goals and arms export agreements with developing countries for the years 1981–2002. I use a two-stage model to evaluate the decision-making process. The first-stage addresses whether a country is eligible to receive U.S. arms. If a country successfully passes through the selection stage, it progresses to the second stage where a decision is made about the amount of arms transferred. I use a Heckman model to estimate empirically the determinants of arms at both the initial selection stage and the subsequent amount stage. The findings indicate that during the Cold War years, human rights were not a significant determinant of arms transfers—although democracy was positively linked to U.S. arms in the selection stage. In the post-Cold War period, both human rights and democracy had a meaningful impact in determining the eligibility of a country to receive arms.     

Setting a Course: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs In Post-World War II U.S. Foreign Policy

"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time.     

Bridging the Realist/Constructivist Divide: The Case of the Counterrevolution in Soviet Foreign Policy at the End of the Cold War

The surprising end of the Cold War has led to a debate within international relations (IR) theory. Constructivists have argued that the end of the Cold War is best explained in terms of ideas and agency—specifically Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev's new thinking. A few realists have countered that Soviet material decline was "endogenous" to the new ideas. Can these two theoretical perspectives be reconciled with respect to this case? They can be partially integrated with a path-dependent strategy that places an emphasis on "institutions." Nevertheless, explaining the end of the Cold War largely requires a theory of Soviet foreign policy and its relation to the state. As a former or ossified revolutionary state, Soviet foreign policy for at least several years was largely based on the principle of externalization: outside threats were used to rationalize radical centralization, repression, and the dominance of the Party. In using the USSR's institutionalized legacy as a revolutionary state, Gorbachev acted as a counterrevolutionary and reversed this process with his revolution in foreign policy. In creating a new peaceful international order, he sought—through the "second image reversed"—to promote radical decentralization, liberalization, and the emergence of a new coalition. The case examines how Gorbachev's domestic goals drove his foreign policy from 1985 to 1991.     

Point of Departure: A Reassessment of Charles de Gaulle and the Paris Summit of May 1960

This article argues that the Franco–American antagonism of the 1960s, which culminated with France's partial withdrawal from NATO in 1966, stems from French president Charles de Gaulle's decision in the aftermath of the failed May 1960 Paris Summit to radically redirect French foreign policy away from its post-World War Two Atlantic orientation to a more European one. By linking the failed summit to de Gaulle's new perception of the Cold War, this article moves de Gaulle scholarship away from interpretations of his foreign policy as the product of anti-Americanism or an anachronistic vision of French power to an understanding rooted in his recognition that the changing dynamics of the Cold War required the Western Europeans to reduce their military dependence on the United States. Since American leaders would never willingly relinquish their dominant position in European security affairs, de Gaulle's new design almost ensured a rising Franco–American tension.     

“The Most Sophisticated Intervention We Have Seen”: The Carter Administration and the Nicaraguan Crisis, 1978–1979

In May 1977, in a public forum, President Jimmy Carter laid out the foundations of a distinctive foreign policy programme for the United States. He offered a striking shift away from the Cold War realpolitik of previous American administrations. Human rights, he declared, would be a central component of United States foreign policy. The growing instability in Central America, especially in Nicaragua, during Carter's term of office provided a major test of his Administration's new programme. And its ultimate response to Nicaraguan instability thus provides key insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the thirty-ninth President's attempt to move beyond traditional, hard-line Cold War diplomacy.     

有关中国与发展中国家关系的几点思考

冷战后，“和平与发展”已经成为国际关系的新主题。巩固并推进我同发展中国家的关系是我国外交全局的基础。在新的国际形势下，发展中国家面临的国际环境和要完成的基本任务都发生了重大变化。因此，我国对发展中国家的外交需要有新思路。包括利用好新的技术成果、寻找新的经济增长点、重视新机制的作用和清醒认识中国新的定位。对发展中国家的外交应注意不同情况具体分析，也应强调“韬光养晦”的政策。