Public Opinion as a Domestic Constraint in International Negotiations: Two-Level Games in the Anglo-Irish Peace Process

This article aims to broaden the theoretical foundations of the two-level games approach to understanding international negotiations by considering the conditions under which public opinion can act as a domestic constraint on the ability of international negotiators to reach agreement. In determining the role that public opinion plays, three factors are of central importance: (1) the preferences of the public relative to those of decision makers and other domestic constituents; (2) the intensity of the issue under negotiation; and (3) the power of the public to ratify a potential agreement. Evidence from the last decade of Anglo-Irish negotiations over the future and status of Northern Ireland shows that public opinion acts as a constraint on negotiators when the public has the power to directly ratify an international agreement. When the public's power to ratify an agreement is indirect, the intensity of the issue under negotiation will play a critical role in determining whether public preferences serve as a constraint on decision makers.     

Negotiations for Refugee Repatriation or Local Settlement: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

This paper uses a model developed by Brams and Doherty (1993) to examine negotiations among a country of origin, a country of asylum, and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in a refugee crisis. A unique feature of the paper is its treatment of the country of asylum as a separate player in the negotiations, which makes the choice to permit or deny settlement in the asylum country endogenous.
The model is applied to two groups of Rwandese refugees: Tutsis living in exile in Burundi for three decades and Hutus in Zaire during the 1990s. The contrasting circumstances surrounding these two refugee crises provide an opportunity to study asylum countries that were sympathetic and unsympathetic, and to model changing attitudes in the country of origin and the international community toward the refugees. For both crises, the predictions of the model are broadly consistent with the unfolding of the negotiation process and the opportunities that eventually became available to the refugees.     

美印民用核合作谈判中首席谈判者角色分析

本文借用双层博弈理论为分析工具对美印民用核能谈判进行了剖析,认定美印谈判的第一层次是美印双方代表为落实达成核协议彼此进行讨价还价,力求双方获胜集合互相重合;第二层次就是美印两国领导人与各自国内的选民就美印核协议的批准与生效进行协商的过程。两个层次的谈判交互进行,互相影响,共同决定美印谈判的结果。     

建立美洲自由贸易区的构想和最新发展

20世纪90年代,在世界经济全球化日益加强的同时区域经济集团化的趋势也进一步发展。除了欧洲和亚太地区的区域经济合作取得较大进展之外,西半球的美洲自由贸易区谈判也空前活跃。但是,由于以美国为首的和以巴西为首的南共市国家在市场准入、农业和知识产权等方面存在较大分歧,错过了建立FTAA的最终期限。而在刚刚结束的第四届美洲国家首脑会议上,针对重新启动FTAA谈判问题,与会各方仍未达成一致意见。     

Building Momentum in Negotiations: Time-Related Costs and Action-Forcing Events

Using the negotiations over the future of Northern Ireland and other case examples, the author develops a conceptual framework for analyzing how negotiators seek to build momentum and overcome stalemate. The framework focuses on the choices negotiators face between taking action and waiting in the hope that counterparts will make concessions, exploring the importance of perceptions of time-related costs and action-forcing events in shaping decision making. The framework highlights the uneven, nonlinear nature of the flow of negotiation processes from initiation to agreement or breakdown, and focuses on the ways negotiators seek to influence the flow by shaping perceptions of time-related costs, structuring action-forcing events, and creating linkages among sets of negotiations.     

浅析沙特阿拉伯在国际气候变化谈判中的立场与策略

在应对气候变化的谈判中,作为世界上最大的产油国,沙特阿拉伯的立场十分引人注目。应对气候变化的措施对石油生产构成了制约,对沙特的经济发展也产生了负面影响。基于此,沙特确定了它在应对气候变化国际谈判中的基本立场。但由于自身的影响难以左右谈判的发展方向,因此该国时常采用同步前进、反复宣传负面影响、推迟谈判、对程序性规则作出自己的解释等杯葛策略,来表达和维护自己在气候谈判中的利益和诉求。     

Immovable Positions: Public Acknowledgment and Bargaining in Military Basing Negotiations

Why might public acknowledgment of cooperative security negotiations generate bargaining constraints that provoke stalemate? Previous scholarship points to aroused public opinion. Yet in many cases where hard-line bargaining stances develop and talks collapse following public acknowledgment, it is not domestic political pressures that tie leaders’ hands. This article examines instead an international constraint attendant to publicity: opposition by third-party states. I argue that international power position shapes the balance of vulnerability between the negotiating parties to abandonment and entanglement. The act of official acknowledgment can constrain the more vulnerable partner by enabling third-party states to credibly scrutinize its intentions. By threatening strained relations, such scrutiny can create a security dilemma that reduces the weaker partner's bargaining range to a choice between cooperation on its terms and noncooperation. I evaluate this argument by studying foreign military basing negotiations. Statistical analyses and a comparative case study produce strong support for my argument.     

Sports Games:Medals and Friendship

正In 1987,wearing a sport suit with the mark of national flag for the first time,I arrived in Pyongyang,the capital of DPRK in a train,to participate in the annual sports exchanges between China and DPRK.At that time,as a young athlete who just began her professional training,I was curious about everything in Pyongyang:streets,buildings,statues,clothes with     

Strategic Moral Diplomacy: Mandela, Qaddafi, and the Lockerbie Negotiations

Understanding and mitigating the consequences of clashing moral perceptions should be a primary goal of diplomacy and foreign policy analysis. Personal interviews and primary documents about the Lockerbie negotiations are used to illustrate the dangerous collision of different moral claims in the international arena, the mistakes made by the United States and United Kingdom in handling this aspect of the negotiations, and South African President Nelson Mandela's use of strategic moral diplomacy to resolve the stalemate between Libya, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Mandela's strategy in these negotiations is an example of how an intelligent and pragmatic moral position, rather than the conventional image of an enemy as evil, can produce the desired strategic results—in this case, Colonel Qaddafi's handover of the two Libyan citizens accused of the Lockerbie bombing.     

美伊核博弈的建构主义分析

伊朗核危机是伊拉克战争后世界最热门的话题之一。对于美国和伊朗双方在核问题上的激烈对抗和争斗,国内外学者见仁见智,作出了种种不同解释。本文借用建构主义的有关概念和原理来解读美伊在这场核危机中的博弈思维和心态,认为伊朗核危机产生的关键在于美伊对彼此的“敌人”角色认知和身份建构,进而揭示美伊20多年来长期敌视和对抗的原因,并据此分析伊朗核危机的根源、实质及未来走向。     

Book Review International Environmental Negotiations: The Current State of Empirical and Analytic Study

Negotiation Journal -     

Pre-Settlement Settlement (PreSS): A Simple Technique for Initiating Complex Negotiations

Pre-setttement settlement, or PreSS, is a negotiation technique that precedes and potentially facilitates a final settlement. A PreSS is distinguished by three characteristics. It is: formal (being a binding agreement), initial (being the first step of a longer process), and partial (covering only a subset of issues). PreSS provides a conceptual umbrella for several existing concepts in the negotiation literature. The what, when, and why of PreSS are delineated and examples of pre-settlement settlement are provided.     

Why Not Invade North Korea? Threats, Language Games, and U.S. Foreign Policy

International relations theory has difficulty explaining how similar policies produce different outcomes. Iraq and North Korea have been identified as members of the "axis of evil" with weapons of mass destruction programs that threaten the United States. Yet in late 2002, the United States prepared to attack Iraq whereas it chose to negotiate with North Korea, even after North Korea admitted to a secret nuclear program in direct violation of its 1994 agreement with the United States. Moreover, a direct comparison with Iraq shows North Korea to possess the greater material capability to threaten the United States. I argue that a language-based constructivist approach can explain these differences in U.S. foreign policy where other theoretical approaches cannot. By examining the U.S. entanglement in intersected language games—the implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea and the enforcement of United Nations Resolutions in Iraq—it becomes possible to show how the United States could construct North Korea's nuclear program as a manageable threat that could be dealt with diplomatically.     

Kaiser Permanente: Using Interest-Based Negotiations to Craft a New Collective Bargaining Agreement

Building on a new labor–management partnership, Kaiser Permanente and its nearly seventy thousand union employees negotiated a five-year contract agreement in 2000 based on the principles of "interest-based negotiations." The people who made this remarkable achievement happen as well as the historic background of the case are described and analyzed. A key element to the success of this initiative was the back-and-forth work of many different groups, including joint labor–management committee, coalitions of unions, bargaining task groups focused on particular subject areas, and local and national leaders of the company and its unions. Using illustrative comments from actual participants in this complex, nearly year-long negotiation process, the authors explore how the parties crafted their agreement.     

美洲自由贸易协定谈判中主要谈判方的博弈

由于美国和一些拉美国家(南共市成员国)对建立美洲自由贸易区的预期有着根本的不同,因此在农业、环境、知识产权、劳工标准、服务贸易等关键性问题的谈判中相持不下。自2004年以来,美洲自由贸易协定的谈判一直陷于停滞状态。本文从主要谈判方的立场和方式的变化来分析美洲自由贸易协定谈判的博弈过程,并着重分析主要谈判方在农业和环境领域的谈判中为何陷入僵局以及打破僵局的可能性。     

Breaking Deadlocks in International Institutional Negotiations: The WTO, Seattle, and Doha

Negotiations among members of international institutions often stalemate yet the outcomes vary. Sometimes talks end in impasse and other times in agreement. Several familiar theories are unable to explain the contrast between two prominent outcomes in the World Trade Organization—its 1999 deadlock in Seattle and its 2001 agreement in Doha, Qatar, on an agenda for a new round. Extensive original evidence from these cases documents mechanisms that can tip the negotiation process between impasse and agreement in any institution, not only economic ones. The study illustrates benefits for international relations research of building on the relatively neglected tradition of negotiation analysis, a substantial part of which is outside political science.     

The Possibility and Impact of Japan's Participation in TPP Negotiations

In March 2010,eight APEC countries,namely the U.S.,Australia,New Zealand,Singapore,Brunei,Chile,Peru and Vietnam officially launched the inter-governmental negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement(TPP).This new FTA in the Asia-Pacific region,featuring comprehensive and high demands for liberalisation,rapid advancement and strict negotiation timetable     

语言、文化与经济--从东北亚的经济发展看语言与文化的作用

同在东北亚文化圈中的日、韩、俄、蒙、中5个国家有着相同的儒学文化和相近的地理文化这种宏观文化氛围,而各国间不同的语言所引起的文化因素的微观差异使这一地区呈现出国家和区域特色。文化背景不同,其价值观、道德观就不一样,而由此所产生的不同发展理念,决定了不同的经济发展模式。东北亚5国由于地理上的接近以及汉字文化和儒学、佛教的影响,使各方在沟通和理解上比较容易,这种文化同质性是东北亚各民族进一步发展固有文化传统,建设和平共处、文化交融、互利互助、经济合作、繁荣共享的区域构架的基础。     

The Negotiator and the Bomber: Analyzing the Critical Role of Active Listening in Crisis Negotiations

This article extends Michael R. Hammer and Randall G. Rogan's communication-based, interactive model of crisis negotiation by examining the role of active listening by a police negotiator in New South Wales, Australia in the process of serving a "high-risk warrant" on an armed and dangerous man who was expected to resist. Through an analysis of the interaction between the perpetrator and the negotiator, this paper demonstrates that the use of active listening in the early stages of the negotiation was a critical factor in the resolution of this crisis and is an essential skill for any hostage negotiator.