大国中亚地区外交新态势北大核心

近年来,传统地缘竞争思维出现回归趋势,大国在全球和地区层面的地缘政治竞争明显加剧,大国在中亚地区的竞争和对抗是其典型表现之一。近年来,世界主要大国纷纷调整中亚政策,加大介入中亚事务的力度,导致中亚地区外交形势生变。大国相互之间在中亚地区的互动呈现更浓的零和博弈色彩,大国介入中亚事务刺激中亚国家寻求团结,大国在机制上热衷于建立“小多边”合作机制,纷纷致力于与中亚国家推进于己有利的互联互通。这一切对中国来说既有挑战,也有机遇。一方面,大国加大对中亚地区的关注和投入,要求中国谨慎行事,避免激化地区矛盾。另一方面,中国可充分发挥自身的经济优势,借助与中亚交往的已有基础和“中国+中亚五国”外长会晤机制,推动中国与中亚国家的互信与合作迈上新的台阶。     

中亚国家与土、伊发展关系的原因、前景及影响

前苏联中亚国家宣布独立后,把对外关系的着眼点放到周边国家,特别是土耳其、伊朗。它们频繁进行高层互访,积极开展经济交流,谋求区域性经济合作,在一些政治问题上寻找共同点。一、中亚国家与土、伊关系发展迅速的原因 1.中亚各国急于在经济发展方面寻找出路。中亚各国在独联体中属于相对贫困国家,由于原苏联中央僵化的管理方法和中亚各国的自身条件的局限,这些国家经济畸形发展,结果现在都面临严重经济困难。为摆脱困境中亚国家对拓展与土、伊的关系给予高度重视,其考虑主要有三:一是寻找适合本国经济发展的模式。中亚国家根据本国条件,认为西方发达国家许多作法不适合中亚地区,而对土耳其步子谨慎的经济政策、政教分离的政治结构和保持与西方良好关系的战略颇感兴趣。这些国家认为在现代化问题上土耳其是它们的榜样,把土耳其看成了中亚的“日本”。乌兹别克总统访问土耳其后便说,乌兹别克要借鉴土耳其经验。现在“土耳其发展道路”几乎成了整个中亚地区发展经济的口号。二是为发展贸易寻找出海口。中亚各国都是内陆国家,没有通向公海的出海口,出于同外部世界建立联系想法,     

影响中亚地区一体化的主要因素探析

中亚国家独立之初,各国领导人表达了借助原苏联时期的联系实现更高程度一体化的愿望;各国相似的历史经历以及在经济与安全领域的诸多联系,也为推进地区一体化提供了良好条件。然而,由于苏联解体给中亚国家造成冲击、各国在国家层面致力于国家建构、相互之间关系有待进一步改善以及俄美在地区层面博弈等因素影响,中亚国家在推进地区一体化方面尚未取得根本突破。中亚各国可通过转变对地区一体化问题立场,在对外经济政策和改善与其他国家关系等方面做出努力,为推动地区合作取得更大进展创造有利条件。     

中国中亚外交的理论和实践

和平发展与和谐世界理论是中国中亚外交的基础.中亚地区形势复杂,各种矛盾和利益交织一起.中国充分认识到中亚地区的特点,提出要把这一地区建设成"持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐地区.由于中国在中亚地区有较大的影响力,与所有中亚国家都保持着良好的关系,而且有上海合作组织的平台,中国推动中亚和谐地区建设的构想,基本具备了实现的条件.     

2005年的中亚形势

2005年是中亚地区形势发生重大变化的一年.政治上,受格鲁吉亚"玫瑰革命"和乌克兰"橙色革命"冲击波的影响,一些国家出现剧烈的政治动荡.3月下旬,吉尔吉斯斯坦政权更迭;5月中旬,乌兹别克斯坦发生"安集延事件".经济上,各国间发展差距进一步拉大,哈萨克斯坦发展势头强劲,成为地区经济发展的头羊;吉尔吉斯斯坦受政局动荡影响,经济出现下滑;其余国家经济继续恢复性增长.安全上,恐怖主义威胁仍十分严峻,宗教极端势力继续蔓延,并且凸显武装暴力色彩;阿富汗毒品对中亚地区的渗透有增无减,中亚国家已成为阿富汗毒品的主要流通地.地缘政治上,大国搏弈继续全面展开,美俄围绕争夺地区主导权展开新一轮激烈角逐,频繁"过招",地区力量对比此消彼长.     

中国与中亚国家共建数字丝绸之路:基础、挑战与路径

中国与中亚国家共建数字丝绸之路对“一带一路”建设和提升中亚国家现代化发展水平意义重大。中亚国家数字经济发展潜力巨大,各国纷纷出台数字经济发展战略,电子商务发展方兴未艾,电子政务能力不断提升,但各国数字经济发展差距较大。中国与中亚国家共建数字丝绸之路有着良好的基础,双方已建立起较为稳定持久的互信关系,都提出了数字经济发展战略,已有多层次合作机制,中亚国家对双方合作的内在动力较强。但双方合作也面临不少挑战,中亚国家数字基础设施建设较为薄弱、数字人才紧缺,网络安全和地缘政治风险亦不断增加。中国和中亚国家可从数字基础设施建设、数字治理、电子商务、数字人才培养等路径入手展开合作,因国施策,共建数字丝绸之路。     

中亚地区打击恐怖主义的国际合作

中亚各国独立以来,整个地区因面临各种"新挑战",如国际恐怖主义、宗教极端主义、民族分裂主义、有组织犯罪、毒品和武器非法交易以及非法移民等问题.从历史发展、地缘政治状况和社会经济文化等因素看,中亚地区所处安全环境非常脆弱且极易受到恐怖主义的威胁.中亚国家在面对国际恐怖主义、宗教极端主义和民族分裂主义运动合流的情况下,纷纷制定了相关的国内反恐政策,同时也加入到了地区和全球性反恐机制,取得了较好的效果.     

中亚各国制度变迁的政治文化动因

独立伊始,中亚五国就确立了从高度集权的政治体制向宪政民主政治体制、从高度集中的计划经济体制向自由市场经济体制、从单一僵化的传统社会向市民社会转变的目标,由此拉开了各国以制度变迁为核心的国家转型历程.截至目前,中亚各国的体制变迁经历了曲折复杂的过程,鉴于制度变迁过程中制度惯性的存在,尤其是中亚政治文化传统所具有的滞后性,无论是对于中亚国家的政治改革,还是对于经济转轨与社会转型,各国传统政治文化都扮演着极为重要的角色.总的看来,中亚以脆弱性与易变性、分裂性与断裂性、专制性与对权威的顺从性为特征的政治文化传统,成为影响各国政治、经济、社会三个领域变迁的基本因素.     

大国对中亚能源政策的演变及其发展趋势

自中亚国家独立以来，大国对中亚的能源政策经历了不断调整与演变。与此相应，中亚国家为保障本国的利益和安全，也在不断修改本国的能源发展战略，建立和完善与本国经济发展战略相适应的能源合作方面的法律法规和政策措施。未来中亚地区能源发展趋势仍然是大国之间、大国与中亚国家之间的竞争与合作，并拓展到中亚政治、经济、文化等领域，形成相对均衡的多元化、多模式、互利共赢的局面。     

从规则治理到关系治理——三十年来中亚地区治理模式的变迁

2021年是中亚国家独立三十周年的特殊年份。回顾中亚地区的治理历程可发现,该地区的治理模式大体经历了规则治理为主到关系治理为主的演进。中亚国家独立后的优先任务在于学习并接受国际规范与规则,提升自身的国际生存能力,而国际规则在很大程度上指引着中亚国家间的互动及其对国际事务的参与。这种态势,导致中亚地区治理具有浓郁的规范治理的特征。而“9·11”事件后,尤其是当2003～2005年间“颜色革命”波及后苏联空间时,中亚国家意识到处理好与域外大国的关系极为重要,因其直接影响到各国的政权生存,由此导致各国将实现对各种关系的大致平衡视为国家优先任务,这使中亚地区治理的关系治理特征凸显。中亚地区治理模式的转型,反映了参与中亚地区治理的行为体逐渐增多、地区治理议题日益繁杂、治理主体间关系日益复杂等现实。中亚地区治理模式的转型有多重影响,如中亚国家自主性得到显著提高,地区治理成效好坏参半,各国寻求关系平衡增大了大国主导中亚事务的难度,使中亚地区逐渐形成了后自由主义的地区秩序类型。     

“一带一路”倡议在中亚地区进展以及面临的挑战

中亚地区地处欧亚大陆腹地,是陆上直接与中国接壤的地区之一,也是连接亚欧大陆的交通要道和多种文化的汇集点。由于自身特殊的地理位置,中亚五国自苏联解体获得独立以来,一直是世界各大国和各种政治势力角逐的重点区域。2013年9月,习近平主席在哈萨克斯坦首次提出建设"丝绸之路经济带"倡议,得到了中亚地区国家的积极响应。6年来,中亚地区国家成为"一带一路"倡议落地成果最多、进展最快的地区之一。但是,由于这些国家复杂的内外部环境,"一带一路"倡议在中亚地区同样也面临各种复杂的局面和挑战。本文通过梳理该倡议在中亚地区国家取得的成绩,分析归纳出"一带一路"倡议在中亚地区面临着国家政治稳定性、军事安全性、国内经济民生和社会问题、国家间利益冲突、世界其他国家的影响和干扰等五方面挑战。面对这些风险和挑战,我们在中亚地区推进"一带一路"倡议时,应当兼顾各方利益,共同构建中国-中亚"利益共同体"和"命运共同体"。     

Political evolution in post‐Soviet Central Asia

This article considers the Central Asian republics in the post‐Soviet era and the fortunes of western‐style democracy to which their respective leaders have committed themselves. A dichotomy emerges between the ‘hard’ authoritarian approach adopted by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and the ‘soft’ authoritarianism of Kazakhstan and Krygystan. Explanations for the authoritarian path, and implicitly for the lack of progress in democratization, are then expanded upon. These range from cultural and religious factors, to economic pressures, and to the role of Russia and the russified administrators and the political system it left behind. Finally, the article highlights the challenges, potential and real, to the perpetuation of the authoritarian culture. The future path of political transition in Central Asia is of major significance because the peaceful and stable development of this geostrategically and economically important region has yet to be secured. The emergence of political cultures centred on democratic values is far from guaranteed. There is nothing to say that such values even have any place in these societies.     

Central Asian Countries: Learning to Live Next to the Taliban

With the withdrawal of the US and coalition forces from Afghanistan and the rapid takeover by the Taliban, most Central Asian governments recognized the Taliban in a pragmatic decision to peacefully coexist with the neighboring extremist regime that will likely remain in power for the foreseeable future. Tajikistan is, however, denying the Taliban recognition and indirectly supporting the resistance movement in Panjshir. The political and human catastrophe in Afghanistan is threatening to boost autocratic tendencies and further deepen political gaps in Central Asian societies. This article discusses the rationale behind each Central Asian government’s approach to the Talibanized Afghanistan and the looming domestic and external challenges to the region.     

International Socialization in Difficult Environments: The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Central Asia

This article explores the potential of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to be an agent of socialization in the five Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In drawing on both rationalist and constructivist approaches to international socialization it is argued that the organization's inability to provide tangible material and political incentives as well as Central Asia's indigenous culture and institutions impede successful socialization dynamics. Moreover, the power-oriented elites consider the bulk of the OSCE activities to be a threat to their grasp on power, not only making socialization almost impossible but also making OSCE–Central Asian cooperation increasingly difficult to sustain. Recommendations to increase the OSCE's influence in the region concentrate on a better understanding of the cost-benefit calculation of Central Asian governments as well as a more responsive attitude to traditional institutions in the OSCE's approach toward the region.     

The United States and central Asia: in the Steppes to stay?

11 September 2001 elevated the importance of the South Caucasus and Central Asia in US global strategy. The Central Asian republics proved crucial bases for military and intelligence operations. The South Caucasus, in turn, provided the only realistic air corridor for the deployment of Europe‐based US forces to Afghan territory. As its Central Asian footprint grows, Washington must consider the interests of key Eurasian powers and demonstrate a sustained economic and political commitment to the region.     

When actions speak louder than words: examining collective political protests in Central Asia

What explains the dynamics of contentious collective political action in post-Soviet Central Asia? How do post-Soviet Central Asian citizens negotiate the tensions between partaking in and abstaining from elite-challenging collective protests? By analysing cross-national attitudes in two Central Asian states, this article (1) systematically analyses the variation in collective protests by testing rival macro-, meso-, and micro-level theories; (2) reintroduces a conceptual and empirical distinction between low-risk and high-risk collective protests; and (3) examines the conditions under which individuals participate in two distinct types of elite-challenging collective actions. Three conclusions are reached. First, the evidence suggests that nuanced consideration of multi-level theoretical perspectives is necessary to explain contingencies of elite-challenging actions. Second, economic grievances and resource mobilization emerge as leading factors driving both low-risk and high-risk protests. Third, Islamic religiosity and social networking robustly predict participation in high-risk collective action.     

对国际社会普遍关注的中亚几个问题的看法

本文简评国际社会普遍关注的中亚几个重要问题,包括政局是否稳定、金融危机的影响有多大、大国博弈中亚有何新情况、中亚国家关系如何、中国与中亚国家的关系等,时间跨度为2008年后期至2009年。文中还对目前国际社会流行的一些说法提出不同的看法。     

Narcotics,Radicalism, and Armed Conflict in Central Asia: The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

While the academic debate on security has broadened in recent years, it has failed to cohesively include transnational organized crime and drug trafficking as a security issue. However, especially in weak states in developing and postcommunist regions, these phenomena are having an increasingly negative effect on security in the military, political, economic, and societal sense. Security issues in Central Asia are a prominentexample of the links between drug trafficking and military threats to security. This is illustrated most clearly by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has been both a major actor in the drug trade from Afghanistan to Central Asia as well as the most serious violent nonstate actor in the region. The link between the drug trade and armed conflict is of fundamental importance to understanding the challenges to Central Asian security.     

2011年中亚战略形势评估

2011年是中亚国家取得主权独立、推进社会转型的第20个年头,也是各国应对各种挑战,努力维稳定、促发展的关键一年。政治上,各国政局均未出现大动荡,但经过独立20年的发展,中亚各国大多接近历史变革临界点,大多数国家均出现自上而下的政治体制改良趋势。经济上,各国逐渐摆脱金融危机影响,实现不同程度增长,但经济危机并未改变中亚经济的增长模式和基本布局,各国发展差距进一步拉大。安全领域,涉恐等恶性案件未显著减少,极端宗教思潮利用各种渠道加紧渗透,中亚安全风险上升值得关注。外交上,中亚各国平衡外交理念更加清晰,手段更加纯熟,但中亚地区的大国博弈有所加剧,俄美两国均提出自己的新中亚战略,日本、韩国等积极介入中亚事务。与此同时,中亚各国与中国关系稳步发展,安全与务实合作得以深化。     

The European defence plans: Filling the transatlantic gaps

The geographic proximity of Central Asia to Russia, China, the Caucasus and the Caspian region, as well as to the Middle East, makes this oil and gas-producing region a crucial and ever-developing player in regional and global energy markets. The method by which Central Asian producers choose to develop their hydrocarbon resources and export infrastructure will have significant implications for the plans for diversification of oil and gas supplies of Europe, China and India, as well as for Russia's energy exports to Europe. It is still too early to tell whether the economic and political incentives are strong enough to promote cooperation between the various actors or whether the energy interests of these key external powers are so diverse as to clash in Central Asia.