美国气候战略及中美气候合作北大核心

当前全球气候危机加速演进,气候变化与国际战略深度融合,全球气候治理进入大变局和秩序重塑的关键时期。美国拜登政府重启气候新议程,将气候变化议题提升至美国国家安全与外交政策的中心地位,其战略目标是在全球气候权力重组、气候安全体系重构、气候治理秩序重塑中争夺主导权,拜登政府的气候战略框架已基本成型。统筹应对美国气候战略竞争风险和深入推进COP26后中美气候外交,关系到国际安全体系与全球气候治理新秩序的构建。中美唯有良性互动、拓展合作空间才能维护国际安全及人类在21世纪的可持续发展。     

The Major Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics in the Transition of International Order

The early 21st century finds great change in international order.China's foreign relations have entered a new phase where its driving force is rapidly rising for the emerging countries and new global economic governance mechanism is gradually established.To follow the trend of the times,China has actively participated in global economic governance and supply of public goods.China' s foreign relations present a new vision,idea and strategy under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.It is a new starting point for China to further integrate itself into the world and open itself wider to the world.China takes an active part to participate in global governance and plays an important role in the issues of economic integration,environmental governance,climate change,nuclear nonproliferation,energy crisis,internet security and anti-terrorism,especially anti-terrorism.This article explains the performance of international relations in current transition order and tries to tackle prior (and in some ways more intractable) issues and to analyze the internal logics and external environment of impact of multi-polarization on China's major power diplomacy with its characteristics in the transition of International order.     

美国全球卫生安全战略及其对世界卫生安全体系的挑战

进入21世纪以来,新型冠状病毒、埃博拉、重症急性呼吸综合征以及甲流感等新发和复发传染病危机对全球卫生安全构成严重威胁,因此,如何促进全球卫生安全治理是当今国际社会亟待解决的问题。尽管美国曾经在全球卫生安全治理中发挥了重要作用,但尚未形成清晰的全球卫生安全治理政策。美国于2019年5月首次发布《全球卫生安全战略》,标志着特朗普政府全球卫生安全政策正式出台。该《全球卫生安全战略》以应对传染病威胁为核心,呈现出了以国家安全为导向和"全政府"路径的特点,充分体现了特朗普政府的"负担分担""美国优先"和反多边主义的思维。在全球卫生安全领域,各国已成为"因病相依"的全球命运共同体。有效的全球卫生安全治理需要全球多边主义,特朗普政府以国家安全为导向和以"美国优先"为原则的《全球卫生安全战略》与全球卫生安全的实现之间存在张力。特朗普政府的上述思维不仅侵蚀了全球卫生安全体系建构所必需的国际政治合作基础,也恶化了全球卫生安全的融资体系,因此对全球卫生安全体系构成了挑战。     

深海安全治理:问题缘起、国际合作与中国策略

深海区域是重要的全球公域,其丰富的资源储备和巨大的军事战略价值成为吸引世界各国深度参与深海开发的重要诱因。近年来,各国深海力量投送的不断加强,也在国际深海领域造成了如生态安全、军事安全、经济与资源安全以及人身安全等各种传统及非传统安全问题。国际深海安全问题的出现,会对深海开发的良性发展产生严重的影响。因此,重视和加强对国际深海安全问题的治理迫在眉睫。现阶段,国际社会在相关国际法和国际机制的基础上,已经初步形成了以国际海底管理局等国际组织和主权国家共同参与的总体治理架构。但是,现阶段的国际深海安全治理还存在着治理主体层次不够多元、军事等传统安全领域的治理相对乏力等亟须解决的问题。近年来,中国在和平利用国际深海资源方面,发展迅猛。进一步关注国际深海安全问题、有效参与国际深海安全治理,对于中国而言意义重大。在此背景下,中国可以在进一步有效感知深海安全问题、夯实参与国际深海安全治理的实力基础以及打造深海“人类命运共同体”等方面进一步着力。     

数字经济时代的全球数据安全治理与中国策略

进入数字经济时代以来,日益严峻的数据安全风险与变幻莫测的国际形势交织叠加,各国围绕数据安全治理规则博弈呈现加剧态势,引发全球数据安全治理问题。各国际行为体虽然已经意识到数据安全治理的重要性,但对全球数据安全治理并未形成统一的治理框架。全球数据安全治理仅仅由单边、双边和多边框架以及贸易规则拼凑而成,相关治理议题在公民个人、社会、经济以及国家安全等多个层面相继涌现。多领域多维度的数据安全问题难免造成治理主体利益诉求的差异,也导致全球数据安全治理出现了规则碎片化、机制效用不足、治理乏力等问题。与此同时,个别国家的数据霸权主义行为更是使得国际行为体难以凝聚共识,全球数据安全治理步履蹒跚,重视和加强对全球数据安全问题的治理迫在眉睫。中国高度重视数据安全的相关议题,由于中国在数据治理领域起步较晚,仍存在立法不完善、技术创新能力薄弱、国际合作不足、治理乏力等问题。中国需要全面、系统地分析影响数据安全的各种重大风险因素,准确把握全球数据安全趋势,进一步优化中国在全球数据安全治理中的策略选择。     

疫情冲击下的世界经济与中国对策

新冠肺炎疫情的急剧扩散正在对世界经济产生严重冲击,使得任何国家都无法独善其身。本文探讨了疫情对世界经济增长、深层次结构以及全球经济治理等领域可能造成的冲击,认为世界经济秩序和国际经济关系都将受到重大影响,全球化进程可能呈现出现碎片化发展趋势,全球治理赤字更加凸显且内容更加广域化,跨国公司的产业链重构进程将有所加快并更加注重安全因素。在这种严峻形势下,中国应采取更加系统的应对措施,短期内宏观经济政策重心应该从“保增长”调整为“保就业”,并努力确保外向型产业链稳定;中长期应该更加注重扩大内需,进一步扩大金融业开放和积极推进国际经济协调。     

生物多样性议题安全建构的碎片化

1992年,《生物多样性公约》与《联合国气候变化框架公约》《联合国防治荒漠化公约》一并成为全球环境治理与合作的重要制度性框架文件。目前,生物多样性的国际合作程度、社会认知深度、治理行动速度等都明显逊色。生物多样性治理的迫切程度不亚于其他的全球性环境议题,但其议题安全化的分散性却不利于建构整体性的安全认知。生物多样性议题安全建构的碎片化体现在生态、治理目标、谈判、国家及其他行为体四个层面。生态层面是指生物多样性的安全认知;治理目标层面是指全球生物多样性治理的"爱知目标"与安全的联系;谈判层面包括资金机制、资源动员、遗传资源获取和惠益分享、保护区以及主流化等议题;各缔约方及其他行为体层面不仅在各项议题上表达各自关切,同时也将生物多样性问题建构为粮食安全、水安全、公共卫生安全、经济安全等多元安全关注。生物多样性议题安全建构的碎片化导致了该问题虽然在话语上进入了安全领域,但是缺乏共同的安全认知,难以提供简明和清晰的治理目标和路径,不利于推动全球有效治理。     

核安全全球治理:历史、现实与挑战

核安全风险超越国界,可能跨越地区,甚至影响全球,因而核安全的治理必然是全球治理。各国对核安全风险的评估、核安全意识的养成是一个演进的过程,与此同步的是核安全全球治理。核安全全球治理经历了冷战、冷战结束和九一一事件以来的三个发展阶段,治理的主要内容随着国际安全形势的变化而调整。冷战期间的核安全全球治理主要体现为建立国际原子能机构以管理核能的和平利用,防范无核国家以发展民用核能为由发展核武器,签署和履行与核安全密切相关的国际公约、培育核安全的意识;冷战结束初期,国际原子能机构强化了保障监督能力,多边出口管制机制加强了对涉核物项出口的管控,国家间展开了实质性的核安全合作;九一一恐怖袭击之后,核安全全球治理呈现加速度的趋势,国际社会日益形成核安全共识,全球性制度建设加速,多边合作加强。经过多年努力,核安全全球治理的制度建设取得了显著成就,双边和多边国际合作得到实质性推动,但核安全全球治理仍然面临如何有效减少核材料存量、如何推动相关国家切实履行国家责任等挑战。     

金融全球化、全球金融治理改革与国际金融安全*——基于信息科技革命的视角JP〗*

从本质上说,金融业是一种“信息密集性”或“信息敏感性”产业,对于金融全球化而言,信息技术进步具有特殊重要的意义。在信息科技革命引领和推动下,互联网与金融业相互融合,掀起了人类历史上第二次大规模的金融全球化浪潮。当代金融全球化迅猛发展对国际金融安全产生了重大而深远的影响,新一轮大规模金融全球化、国际金融体系的巨大变化以及由此而形成的新的国际金融格局与既有的全球金融治理框架之间的均衡逐渐被打破,既有的全球金融治理框架越来越难以适应信息科技革命条件下金融全球化发展和维护国际金融安全的要求。为更好地适应当代金融全球化条件下建立新的国际金融公共秩序,更好地维护国际金融安全的需要,以2008年全球金融危机爆发为契机,国际社会揭开了全球金融治理改革的大幕。在国际金融体系和全球金融治理框架处于大变动和寻求新均衡的背景下,中国应抓住有利时机,以更加积极、主动的姿态参与和推动全球金融治理改革,坚持命运共同体理念,遵循责任、权力相一致和平衡的原则,倡导在全球金融治理中加强互联网的运用,为维护国际金融安全做出更大贡献。     

The Complexity of Global Security Governance: An Analytical Overview

By suggesting predictable and controllable patterns of development, the literature on global governance seems to simplify the world for decision-making tractability. In this respect, security narratives often remain analytically frozen, while the dynamics of global life are not. Relying on complexity thinking, this article both comments on the construction and potential reconstruction of the concept of security as it relates to the question of global governance and engages with the cognitive multiplicity of the notion of global security governance. Such an exploration suggests the need for the complexification of the discourses and practices of security governance through the adaptive contingency of “security as resilience”, which rejects the detachment between human and natural systems and the ability of the former to control the latter. The argument is that the logic of “security as resilience” is more appropriate than the conventional logic of “security as control”. In policy terms, therefore, the complexity of global security governance intimates an ability to cope with vulnerabilities, defy adversity and construct a new proficiency in response to the uncertainty, cognitive challenges, complex unbounded risks and the need for continuing adaptation prompted by the alterations in global life.     

Human Security and Constructivism

This article explores the concept of "human security" as an academic and fledgling policy movement that seeks to place the individual—or people collectively—as the referent of security. It does this against a background of evolving transnational norms relating to security and governance, and the development of scientific understanding that challenges orthodox conceptions of security. It suggests that human security is not a coherent or objective school of thought. Rather, there are different, and sometimes competing, conceptions of human security that may reflect different sociological/cultural and geostrategic orientations. The article argues that the emergence of the concept of human security—as a broad, multifaceted, and evolving conception of security—rreflects the impact of values and norms on international relations. It also embraces a range of alliances, actors, and agendas that have taken us beyond the traditional scope of international politics and diplomacy. As a demonstration of change in international relations, of evolving identities and interests, this is best explained with reference to "social constructivist" thought, in contradistinction with the structural realist mainstream of international relations. In a constructivist vein, the article suggests that empirical research is already building a case in support of human security thinking that is, slowly, being acknowledged by decision-makers, against the logic of realist determinism.     

Regionalisation, inter-regional cooperation and global governance

The contradiction between trans-boundary issues largely driven by globalisation and conventional authority based on sovereign state leads to the problem of global governance. Regionalisation emerges as a process in which nation states within geographic proximity take collective measures to cope with problems of global governance. With the increasing tendencies of regional cooperation, a new issue thus arises as to the interaction among regions. In fact, the more regionalized the world, the more necessary, enabled and willing for regions to construct connections with each other. Inter-regionalism and trans-regionalism therefore become a further step which regional blocks take to build one layer in the hierarchy of global governance. The paper takes the Asia–Europe Meeting as the case to analyze the above thesis. In the first section, it presents the observation that the global system is characterized with regionalisation, then analyzes the coordination problems facing regions interdependent upon one another and then formulates a modified framework for analysis of the Asia–Europe Meeting. In the second section of rational design, it analyzes the process in which Europe and Asia rationally establish the cooperation structure of ASEM as a means to tackle the coordination issues between the two regions. In the third section of governing globalisation, it discusses the effects and implications of ASEM’s contribution towards global governance mainly in ways of rationalizing international relations and strengthening regional identity in the era of globalisation.

---

Re-conceptualizing State Responsibility: Human Security Protection, Confl icts and Governance

Different from the perspective of traditional national security, human security is an essential component of non-traditional security. Human security is influenced by multi-dimensional factors. Human security will be threatened if one or more of these dimensional factors get twisted. Such threats, once accumulated to a certain level, may trigger a confl ict. While some factors may have a low correlation with confl ict, some other factors may have a multiplying effect in triggering the confl ict. Further, confl ict may be triggered by a single factor or multiple factors. Poor governance may lead to escalation of confl icts. Deep understanding of triggering effects and their correlation with confl icts is essential to addressing the root causes and the management of conflicts effectively. Concepts of human security, state responsibility of protection and neo-interventionism have been developed in succession. Though the people-centered security framework draws global attention, it should be recognized that there is no international consensus on an optimal type of governance. However, according to the Charter of the United Nations, the primary responsibilities of human security protection should be rested on the government of a state. The principle of sovereignty remains the fundamental principle of international relations, which should be the guiding principle for addressing human security issues.     

印度战略崛起与中印关系：问题、趋势与应对

印度的战略崛起在对地区及全球战略格局产生深远意义的同时，也将对中国和中印战略关系产生不可忽视的重大影响。中印建交60周年再次突出了一个双方共同关心的连贯话题：中印两国能否以可信的方式建立并发展稳固、健康的伙伴关系，协调各自利益冲突，增进共同利益，促进地区及全球的安全与发展。向这一目标努力，首先需增强战略互信和扩大合作领域，真正实现战略互动的机制化，提高相互政策的可预测性，积极应对包括边界争端与地缘战略目标冲突在内的主要问题。     

中美摩擦的国际规则之争与全球可持续治理的中国方案

中美之争是全球治理陷入当前困境的外在表现。全球化发展至今,军事等传统安全问题已经不是全球治理最大的困扰,如何在全球权力结构变化之下调整治理思路、模式以应对资源枯竭、环境恶化等具有跨界特征的问题才是当务之急。现有的全球治理具备了奥兰·扬所提出的国际制度变迁的内部矛盾、权力结构变化、外部压力等要素,已处于明显变革之中。与全球治理并行推进的《变革我们的世界:2030年可持续发展议程》(简称"2030议程"),以新型伙伴关系合作、多元化等核心理念获得了全球最大范围的支持,并由于具有显著的外部性而承载着全球治理的责任。"2030议程"在理念普适性和目标务实性方面的优势,为全球治理以可持续治理为新内涵实现理念的转换和相关实践提供了机会。但不可忽视的是,目前主导力量不足以及公共产品匮乏的现状,将严重制约全球可持续治理的落实。中国提出的"一带一路"倡议,以"人类命运共同体"的理念指导,沿着可持续发展的道路推进相关国家、地区的有效发展和治理。~①中国在主动提供治理公共产品的同时,不断以"共商、共建、共享"原则和多方参与分享的创新理念提高相关国家的参与能力,为国际可持续治理培育和储备支持力量,并推动解决治理变革的关键制约因素。随着"一带一路"倡议不断得到全球认可和支持,全球可持续治理将不断从中获得现实和潜在的改革动力。因此中国可以更多的担当,从全球可持续治理的角度,通过理论的完善和实践的充实,将"一带一路"倡议定位于全球可持续治理的中国方案。     

The international politics of air disasters: lessons for aviation disaster governance from Asia, 2014–2015

Abstract

Through a qualitative analysis of three air disasters from Asia in recent years—MH370, MH17 and QZ8501—this article investigates the puzzle of how aviation disasters open up a sovereign state’s domestic governance and foreign policy to international questioning within an anarchic international system. This enquiry thereby highlights the gaps in the global governance of aviation, particularly in the areas of safety and recovery in the wake of aviation disasters. Three linked literatures demonstrate this dynamic. First, aligned with the ‘emotional turn’ in international relations, we show that the portrayal of air disasters and grieving next of kin in global media highlights the politics of grief and trauma. Second, aviation disasters surface the politics of disaster diplomacy in the guise of ‘security competition by proxy’ in the recovery process. Third, we emphasize that these shortfalls in domestic governance and international cooperation demonstrated by the attention-grabbing spectacle of aviation disasters consequently underscore important knowledge, norms and compliance gaps in global aviation governance. Aviation disasters and their aftermath thus shine an international spotlight on the state’s domestic governance and foreign policies in these three manners.     

重塑国家之责：人的安全保护、冲突与治理

与传统的“国家安全”观相比，“人的安全”观是非传统安全领域中的重要内容。人的安全受多维度影响。其中一个或几个维度出现问题，人的安全就受到威胁；威胁达到一定程度，就可能导致冲突。这些维度构成冲突诱因。冲突诱因呈现多元化。有的诱因与冲突相关度较低，有的诱因对诱发冲突具有乘数效应。就触发状态而言，冲突可能由单一因素诱发，亦可由多种因素叠加引发。如果治理失当，会导致冲突恶化。一个国家要有效地治理冲突，就应当对导致冲突的诱因及相关度有深刻理解，如此方可对症下药。人的安全概念、国家保护责任与新干预主义是相继形成的三个概念。应当说，尽管以人为中心的安全框架日益被全球关注，但应当采取何种治理形式，何种治理形式属于最优方案，在国际社会中并未达成共识。但是，根据《联合国宪章》的精神，保护人的安全的责任首先在于当事国政府。主权原则仍是国际关系的基本原则，是解决人的安全问题必须遵守的根本准则。     

Political Science in China： the Domestic Scene and a World Vision

Since the reforms of 1979, the subjects of China＇s political science studies have seen remarkable development. The article attempts a qualitative analysis of the progress made in the main fields of China＇s political science studies during the last decade. It deals with theories of international relations, research into strategy and security, international political economics, theories of comparative politics, China＇s local governance etc. There is still a wide gap between the subjects of China＇s political science studies and those in the rest of the world. China＇s academic circles should do more to air domestic issues and questions in the international academic arena.     

International Strategy and Security in 2011

The world economic recovery is still fraught with multiple risks.Political,economic and social transformations at the global level,and changes in patterns of international relations will require short-...     

习近平国际公平正义观的理论内涵与实践路径

面对当今国际社会多边主义和单边主义、公道和霸道之争,中国国家主席习近平统筹国内国际两个大局,统合国内社会与国际社会公平正义,创新发展马克思主义的公平正义观、中华优秀传统文化的公平正义思想、中国百年外交实践的公平正义观,提出以世界人民为主体的习近平国际公平正义观,积极倡导国际社会推动权利平等、机会平等、国际规则平等,争取全球治理体系更加符合国际形势的变化需要,更加满足应对后疫情时代全球挑战的现实需要,更加顺应和平发展合作共赢的历史趋势,为增进各国政治互信、促进共同发展、引领全球治理、维护世界和平提供了中国智慧和中国方案。