试论中韩战略合作伙伴关系中的美国因素

中韩关系的发展已进入战略合作伙伴关系的高层次阶段,对整个东亚战略新格局的形成起着至关重要的作用。然而,韩国的对华外交却承受着美韩同盟关系的制约,韩国夹在中美之间,左右为难,面临着严重困境。2010年发生的"天安舰事件"和"延坪岛事件"以及2012年发生的"脱北者事件"等,将中韩战略合作伙伴关系中原本隐蔽着的问题暴露在世人的面前,其中之一即是美韩同盟关系与中韩战略合作伙伴关系的内在结构性矛盾。李明博执政期间,美韩同盟有趋强的趋势,导致中韩关系面临着重大考验。韩国外交的根本出路:"须在中美间找准外交平衡点","中美韩‘三国演义’演不好,半岛南北就永无宁日"。为此,韩国需要有更多的独立决策能力,保持自身在两者间的平衡,既与美国保持同盟关系,又与中国发展战略合作伙伴关系。任何倒向美国一边的政策,都会使韩国的战略决策失衡,使中韩战略合作伙伴关系受损。可以期待2012年大选后韩国政府的对美、对华政策会有新的调整,自主性、多元性、平衡性将成为韩国外交的发展方向,将有利于推动中韩战略合作伙伴关系的深化与发展。     

西方“技术联盟”组建的战略背景、目标与困境

美国因战略背景变化不断进行战略工具调试,其主导的西方"技术联盟"作为关键的战略遏制工具,曾经成功地限制了战略竞争对手的经济与技术进步。面对新历史环境下的战略博弈,美国再次谋求联合西方盟友组建新的排他性"技术联盟",并加大与战略对手在新技术维度的战略竞争与博弈力度。目前的全球技术结构特征、全球价值链的结构制约、欧美技术治理结构等多重矛盾因素,给"技术联盟"的建立及其战略有效性带来了新困境,但"技术联盟"作为一种战略工具,依旧可能是未来美国政府在"战略安全"语境下的优先战略选项。"技术联盟"扩散的"战略安全"逻辑阻碍了全球技术进步,并将催生全球技术格局的"隔离"状态,同时其外溢效应还可能包括瓦解全球价值链的潜在风险。     

联盟困境、理性选择与澳美同盟的有限升级

任何联盟内部都存在联盟困境(即"被抛弃"与"被牵连")。在"美主澳从"的澳美同盟中,澳大利亚也面临着联盟困境:如果强调战略自主性则担心"被抛弃";如果强化澳美同盟则担心"被牵连"。在中国快速崛起、美国战略收缩和中美战略竞争不断加剧的背景下,澳大利亚认为有限升级澳美同盟——对美国欲"距"还迎——是其缓解联盟困境的理性选择。首先,有限升级澳美同盟不仅可以大大降低"被抛弃"的风险,而且有望提升地区影响力,同时有助于提升澳在中美战略布局中的重要性。其次,由于中美两国仍将长期维持"斗而不破"的状态,澳大利亚"被牵连"至中美军事冲突中的可能性很小,而当下澳美同盟的有限强化对成熟稳定的中澳关系冲击总体有限。澳大利亚为了缓解联盟困境、提升外交地位,有限升级澳美同盟,不仅使澳大利亚收益颇丰、成本可控,收益大于成本,而且中澳关系保持有限紧张是符合澳大利亚国家利益的理性选择。     

拜登政府对华网络空间政策与中国应对

拜登政府执政以来,为了保持美国的网络空间技术优势和掌握其规则制定权,在网络空间领域仍对中国持强硬态度。拜登政府的对华网络空间政策具体举措,包括增强技术能力、强化供应链安全、炒作中国网络威胁、强化联盟关系、制定国际网络规则五个方面。拜登政府此举主要基于四方面考量:将中国视为最为强劲的竞争对手;重视网络安全;以网络空间合作为抓手修复联盟关系;重视国际制度领导权,谋求掌握制定网络空间国际规则的权力。拜登政府的对华网络空间政策,将会增加中美网络空间"技术脱钩"风险,也会导致中美战略竞争难以缓解,致使美国的盟国在网络空间领域的战略选择更加困难,进而影响全球网络空间治理。因此,中国需要在增强自身网络空间实力的基础上,化解美国在国际上的对华联合施压,缓解中美在网络空间领域的竞争,破解美国对华网络空间的污名化,增强中国在网络空间治理方面的话语权。     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

安倍治下的日本对华政策:从战略制衡到战术避险

日本的对华外交深受国际体系和中美日三角关系的影响。由于中美两个大国在全球层面的战略竞争加剧,以2017年为分水岭,第二次安倍内阁领导下的日本的整体对华外交政策经历了从"战略制衡"向"战术避险"方向的转变。在2017年以前,日本为了联美对华实施"战略制衡",在外交方面,以"印太战略"孤立中国;在安全方面,加强岛屿防卫能力和强化日美同盟;在经济方面,大力支持"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"和对"一带一路"倡议持冷淡态度。在2017年以后,在中美关系的不确定性增大的情况下,安倍领导下的日本对华实施"战术避险"。在外交方面,加强印太战略的开放性、领导人互访和对华自制;在安全方面,继续强化国防上的内部制衡;在经济方面,有条件地认同"一带一路"倡议并对华展开第三方市场合作。展望未来,令和时代的日本将是一个拥有部分战略自主的中等强国,在日美同盟框架下维持与中国有距离的交往,力图在瞬息万变的国际政治角力中实现日本国家利益的最大化。     

中美不对称核稳定与美国战略机会主义论析

中美两国安全关系在两国总体关系中扮演着重要的角色,研究中美之间的战略稳定关系,对于维护两国安全关系的稳定具有重要意义。中国的核威慑实力弱于美国,中美之间呈现出不同于传统战略稳定关系的不对称核稳定态势。中国对美国存在一定的核威慑能力,但有效性仍有差距和不足。这一差距容易使美国产生压制和削弱中国核报复能力的机会主义思想。实施限制损伤战略、发展导弹防御能力、进行战略反潜是美国对中国实施战略机会主义的主要行动。美国谋求削弱中国核报复能力、打破中美不对称核稳定的企图,与中国努力维持核威慑能力、维持中美不对称核稳定的行为形成了两股力量相持的态势。中国应重点提升核武器的质量,提高威慑信号的传递效能,以可信可靠的核威慑和核反击能力打消美国战略机会主义心态,维持两国间的战略稳定,特别是危机稳定性,筑牢遏制战争爆发的基础。     

The Biden Administration's Policy Toward Southeast Asia: Momentum,Motivation and Challenges

After Biden took office,the United States,on the basis of inheriting the main framework of the Trump administration's Southeast Asia policy,has gradually increased its strategic input in Southeast Asia to expand the depth and breadth of cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.First,consolidate its diplomatic influence.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

US and India: Emerging offshore balancing in Asia

ABSTRACT

The US and India have become closer in recent times. Compared with the last century, the relationship between the two countries is in steady growth. Under both the Bush and Obama administrations, and now the Trump administration too, India is receiving significant importance in US’ strategic policy toward the Indo–Pacific. India’s emergence as a credible power in the Indian Ocean region has brought both countries much closer. The relationship has also steadily progressed as result of China’s emergence as a potential hegemon in Asia. The US faces difficulty in maintaining its preponderant position across the Indo–Pacific and requires strong allies in the region to help share the burden. In this regard, India could be the offshore balancer in Asia to counter China’s emergence as a potential hegemon in the region.