Northeast Asian Security Situation & Regional Security Cooperation

For a long period of time, Northeast Asia is one of the most sensitive hot spots in the world. At the moment, a geo-strategic pattern has formed with a quadrilateral (U.S., China, Japan and Russia) and seven parties (U.S., China, Japan, Russia, DPRK, ROK and Mongolia) in the region. Both historical experience and the relations of practical strategic interests have demonstrated that North East Asia is the key to Asia-Pacific security, while the Korean Peninsula is the crux of North--…     

Sino-American-Russian Triangle at the Turn of the Century

On the verge of the new century, the renewed triangular relations between China, the United States and Russia are of significance to the international relations as the world's three big powers have readjusted their ties in recent years.rather long time to come, the state that the United States is strong, Russia re-mains weak, and China is rising will remain unchanged by and large, and so willthe triangle. Readjustments of the Triangle Since the end of the Kosovo war, China, America and Russia, with differentstrategic considerations in mind, have stepped up restoration of mutual relations     

Abstracts

1.The Korean Nuclear Issue Tests Obama＇s Asia Diplomacy,.by Shi Yongming, Senior Researcher, China Institute of International Studies and Guest Researcher of CPDS. Obama＇s Asia policy has just shown an outline of its ＂smart diplomacy＂, i.e., on the premise of sticking to the basic strategy, it attaches great importance to strengthening relationship with the newly-emerging powers and seeks to extend the U.S. influence on Asia by means of dialogue and cooperation. However, the Korean nuclear issue, which is very likely to reach a complicated and even dangerous impasse, is now testing Asia policy of the U.S. new administration. The issue is not only a strategic bottleneck that is a reflection of U.S.-DPRK relationship, but also is constrained by Japan and ROK, whose interests are closely related to the changes of the situation, as well as by some political elements in the U.S.     

U.S.Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy and China's Coping Strategy

Deterrence and coercion are two kinds of strategies,the latter being more aggressive than the former.The U.S.Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy is an important diplomatic legacy of Obama's administration.For the issues involving the Diaoyu Islands,the South China Sea,cyber security,DPRK's nuclear program,and Iran's nuclear program,the U.S.has carded out military deterrence and non-force coercion against China.But generally,these are low-level coercive measures and distinct from the severe economic sanction and diplomatic isolation imposed by the U.S.on Russia,Syria,DPRK and Iran in recent years.Concerning issues where the U.S.and China hold distinct views,there would be less strategic leeway for the two countries.If the U.S.is to strengthen deterrence and coercion towards China,China can respond more actively and effectively,but it will be more difficult to build a new model of China-U.S.major-country relationship.     

英文摘要

1.International Strategic Situation in the ＂Post-crisis Era＂ and Its Development Trend, by Gao Zugui, Senior Research Fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Studies, and Guest Researcher, CPDS. The Post-Cold War international setup feels a strong urge for change after the financial and economic crisis sweeping across the entire world. While the U.S. is still the sole world superpower in terms of its comprehensive strength, the gap between that of the As big powers and power groups are busy making U.S. and those of the other big powers is narrowing down. strategic alignments in prospect of a multi-polar world, relations between and among them are going to take on a new look. Competitions between and among them still carry the day, and are going to be even more intense in various fields.     

China-Russia Energy Cooperation: Its Present Situation and Prospect

Energy cooperation between China and Russia appears dissimilar to that between China and Kazakhstan and between China and the Sudan.Energy cooperation between China and Kazakhstan and between China and the Sudan takes the form that the Chinese corporations participate in the exploration and exploitation of local oil and gas resources,and gets back their shares the in oil and gas returns.The main form of energy cooperation between China and Russia,however,is that Russia exports oil and gas to China by way of trade.In order to     

Future U.S.-Russian Relations

Presidential changes in Russia and the U.S. may open new opportunities for improving increasingly important bilateral relations, but expectations are not high. With the elapse of the so-called Putin autocracy and the Bush unilateralism, U.S.-Russian relations are overshadowed by a new ＂Cold Word War,＂ if not a Cold War. The U.S. will continue to accuse Russia of running an autocracy in order to justify its own invasive foreign conduct and gain the moral high-ground. The two powers will be involved in a bitter struggle, alternating between offensives and defensives, containment and cooperation.     

An Analysis of the BRICs Phenomenon

In October 2003, U. S. Goldman Sachs Group. Inc. issued a research report entitled "Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to2050" that evoked huge international response. It predicts thedevelopment prospect of Brazil, Russia, India and China, believing that the four economies will continue to maintain rapid economic growth rate by 2050, and they could account for over half the size of the G6 by 2025 and could be larger than the G6 in U. S. dollar terms in 2045. No matter the prediction is righ…     

Business as Usual

In the years since 9/11, there is no doubt that the emphasis of U.S. global strategy has been on counter-terrorism and the war in Iraq. During this period of time, the U.S. investment in strategic, political and military resources in the Middle East, Iraq, and the war on terror, which are the top priorities on the list of Bush＇s foreign policy, has been far greater than in any other fields. However, there are some in the U.S. who believe that China＇s rise has been much ignored by the U.S., due to the global war on terror （GWOT）, and that America should, in fact, be focusing more on China, not the Middle East. However, as we see it, China has by no means been ignored by the U.S., neither has China＇s rise been the result of U.S. ignorance.     

U.S.-Russian Relations in the Year of General Elections

While the presidential election already drew to a close in Russia on March 2, 2008, the elections in America have not kicked offfor real yet with presidential candidates still vying with each other in the primaries. On the one hand, Vladimir Putin and the newly-elected Russian president respectively expressed the hope of improving relations with the United States and on the other hand, George W. Bush and major U.S. presidential candidates also revealed the desire of further easing up relations with Russia. With the change of president in Russia and soon in the United States, more and more people are focusing their attention on whether the stagnant bilateral relations between the United States and Russia could really take a turn for the better.