“双重依赖”下的战略困境——澳大利亚南海政策及其特点

美自2010年以来,随着南海问题在亚太地区的升温,澳大利亚对南海局势开始予以密切关注。其南海政策主要集中于中国的岛礁建设、航行自由以及南海仲裁案等方面。在具体实施中,澳大利亚南海政策呈现出以下基本特点:强化与争端国的合作,避免单独介入;防范中国"控制"南海的意图明显;中、澳、美三边关系的非对称性,造成澳南海政策取向表现出一定的模糊性。当前,在经济与安全利益方面,澳大利亚已经形成了对中、美两国"双重依赖"的局面。随着中美南海博弈的深入发展,澳大利亚在南海争端中逐渐陷入被动局面,其南海政策的战略抉择也变得愈发艰难。     

干涉主义视角下的美国南海政策逻辑及中国的应对策略

准确地分析美国的南海政策逻辑对于中国解决南海主权争端具有重要的意义。美国对南海争端的介入是由于其在南海地区的经济利益、安全利益、政治利益和文化传统所决定的。随着国际局势的发展,美国在南海争端上的干涉主义立场也从“多边协商体制”走向了“积极干涉主义”的道路。美国学者对美国在南海利益的界定,美国未来在政治、经济、军事等各个方面将会增强其在南海争端上的影响力,具体来说,美国将运用国际法否定中国对于南海的领土诉求,利用经济实力干涉南海争端,加强在南海的军事存在,将与中国海军实力的差距保持在一个相对安全的范围内,构建多边安全机制,提倡运用国际多边机制解决南海问题,力求将南海问题多边化和国际化,这些都是中国政府和中国学者重点关注的问题。南海争端是非常复杂的,解决南海争端也是非常困难的。中国政府在解决南海争端时需要占据道德和舆论制高点,建设强大的海上力量,同时注重为发展中国经济服务,建立制度和法律保障机制,处理好美国在南海地区的利益关切,中国和平发展的战略目标是有可能实现的。     

试论南海问题的当前发展趋势及其应对策略

南海周边有关国家不断强化和扩大在有争议海域既得利益的行为和南海对于中国战略地位的提升以及美国等区域外大国的积极介入，使得南海问题呈现出危机化的发展趋势。近些年国际战略环境的转变和南海区域环境的变化给中国应对南海问题造成了许多不利因素。对此，中国需要着眼于和平发展的战略大局，维护南海局势稳定，立足主权在我，提倡合作治理，并通过构建相关管理机制的方式推动南海争端的和平解决。     

冷战后东南亚国家南海政策的发展动向与中国的对策思考

本文主要从南海争端方国家、非南海争端方国家、东盟3个层次分析了冷战后东南亚国家南海政策的发展动向。对于南海争端方国家，重点分析了越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚的南海政策；对非南海争端方国家重点分析了新加坡和泰国的南海政策；对于东盟的南海政策，本文指出协调成员国在南海问题上的立场，发表联合声明表达对南海问题的立场，直接就南海问题与中国进行对话，通过东盟地区论坛讨论南海问题构成了东盟对南海问题施加影响的主要方式。在对策思考方面，本文指出中国未来的南海政策应该侧重以下几点：继续将“搁置争议，共同开发”作为解决南海问题的基本原则；坚持“双边协商”的具体策略，力避南海问题的国际化；保持与东盟在南海问题上的沟通，确保东盟不致形成在南海问题上对中国不利的一致立场；在南海区域安全机制的构建和海洋安全维护方面发挥更大的作用。     

南中国海：印度制衡中国的新战略牌

近年来,印度因中印边界争端和中国快速崛起而对中国的恐惧感不断上升。为反制中国战略“威胁”,印度利用南海争端日趋复杂化之机,将南海作为遏阻中国扩大战略影响、牵制中国战略布局的新战略支点,通过加强与南海争端国和域外大国关系,强化自身在南海的实际存在等方式介入南海,使中国的周边地缘政治环境变得更加复杂,增加了中国维护南海权益的难度,对中国在东南亚和印度洋的战略利益形成了挑战。     

美国介入南海问题的现状、动因及趋势

南海问题本是区域内有关声索国就岛屿主权归属和海域划分的争端,但随着美、日、印等区域外大国的介入,南海问题呈现国际化的趋势,争议议题也随之扩大。美国是对南海问题介入最深、影响最大的外部因素,它的介入对南海地区的地缘政治格局和秩序产生了重要影响,使得南海地区的地缘力量分布出现不利于中国的变化,加大了我国应对南海争端和解决南海问题的难度。美国介入南海问题主要是出于其亚太地缘战略的需要,基本目标是尽可能地阻止中国对这一战略区域的影响,含有遏制中国崛起和限制中国战略空间的意图。未来美国会持续关注和介入南海问题,但其介入将是有限度和有选择的。     

《联合国海洋法公约》的缺陷及中美日南海海权博弈对策比较分析

现行的《联合国海洋法公约》存在重大缺陷,无论从法理还是实践的视角看,都存在不公平性。南海争端的核心是领土主权争端,《联合国海洋法公约》并不适用于主权和领土争议,因此也就不适用于南海争端的处理。菲律宾对中国提出南海仲裁案的背后推手是美日等国。基于现行《联合国海洋法公约》的缺陷,为了解决南海争端,中国采取外交谈判优先的战略,美国在《联合国海洋法公约》框架外采取了以军事优势为基础的海洋威慑战略,日本则实行国际干预架构下的海洋同盟战略。采取上述不同战略的根本实质在于中美日三国围绕南海展开的海权博弈。中国应倡导南海海洋治理的两个创新性理念:以法治海、以海治海。     

印度对南海争端的介入及其影响评估

冷战后,随着国际格局的调整,印度在对外战略上实行了＂东进＂政策,试图通过发展与东南亚国家的经济、军事安全等方面的合作,为其大国理想的实现奠定基础。在＂东进＂政策下,印度逐渐以联合军演、出售武器等方式介入到南海争端中,给本来就复杂的南海争端增添了变数。本文对印度介入南海争端的原因、手段做探索研究,并对其影响做出评估,以期为我国的南海争端对策提供参考。     

“中立”抑或“遏制”:冷战后期美国南海政策研究

冷战后期,国际形势的变化让中美走近,美国改变过去咄咄逼人的南海政策,不再公开否认中国拥有南海主权,对南海主权争端采取一定的"中立"。但是,出于维护霸权目的,美国仍然看重南海的地缘战略价值,仍然在南海耀武扬威,仍然没有公开承认中国拥有南海主权,仍然侵犯中国的南海主权。这说明美国的"中立"是相对的,是一种对中国的"隐性遏制"。美国这种表面"中立"、背后仍防范中国的南海政策在1989年到1991年间逐渐了发生了变化。在对中国"和平演变"失败后,美国重新采取公开遏制中国的政策。     

中越南海争端的由来与现状

20世纪50、60年代,南越政府在美国的支持下开始不断挑战我国南海主权,同时期的北越政府因需要中国的支持,力求与中国保持良好关系,在南海问题上同中国保持一致立场。至60年代末,基于大国关系的变化及自身发展的需要,北越政府支持中国的立场开始发生动摇。进入上世纪70年代末,由于南海潜在的巨大石油资源和南海重要战略地位的吸引,加上中越关系的交恶、破裂,越南公然声称对南海拥有主权。20世纪90年代以来,以南沙群岛岛屿归属和海域划界为核心的中越南海争议,与战略资源的攫取以及地缘安全交织在一起,加之区域外大国的介入和各国海洋主权观念的增长等因素,中越南海争端日趋复杂和激烈。     

共识的国际战略效应:一项理论性探讨

共识是国际关系研究和实践中的一个重要概念,既有国际合作理论和战略理论研究等均将共识作为合作的基本条件或潜在假定之一,而在国际关系实践中将追求、落实和巩固共识作为一项基本的外交目标和合作实践。在共识的主体间认知分析基础上,国际共识的类型可以细化为真实共识与部分/虚假共识、消极共识与积极共识等范畴。基于共识的层次分析,塑造共识既成为国际合作的重要基础和条件,也是国际冲突消解的一种重要方式和途径,而部分共识或虚假共识具有重要的国际合作促进作用,同样在特定条件下它也能引发、激化和升级国际冲突。部分共识或虚假共识的国际合作与冲突辩证效应以及消极共识的冲突效应均成为共识的国际战略效应理论分析的核心内容。基于多层次的共识类型分析,共识的国际战略心理学研究包括合作与冲突的效应讨论。共识的国际战略效应分析能够重构共识与国际合作、共识与国际冲突的理论逻辑,对于分析和辨析国际关系中的共识实践具有重要的政策启示。     

Democratic reform between the extreme makeover and the reinvention of tradition: the case of the Netherlands

Democracy in the Netherlands, like in so many other Western countries, is under substantial reform pressure. The problem with the democratic system in the Netherlands, according to democratic reformers, is that it is out of step with the fast and major changes taking place in modern society. Champions of democratic reform in the Netherlands mostly look to sweeping, large-scale, and all-encompassing plans for democratic reform, achieving, however, little success. Major structural changes have been planned time and again, but eventually the institutional structure has remained largely the same. This article presents a critical analysis of the standard recipe that democratic reformers often prescribe – radical makeover – and outlines a viable alternative that can also be derived from the Dutch case – reinventing tradition. Reinventing tradition implies a mixture of change and preservation, of movement and counter-movement. It is, arguably, the only way for democratic reform to go, at least in a consensus democracy like the Netherlands. Dutch history demonstrates that large-scale blueprint reform runs a serious risk of non-implementation, and that small-scale adaptive tinkering, part of the incremental ‘reinvention of tradition’, can be significantly more successful as a reform strategy.     

Namibia: Consensus institutions and majoritarian politics

This article assesses the utility of Arend Lijphart's classification scheme of democracies by means of a case study of Namibia. In particular, the article examines whether Namibia represents a case of consensus democracy, based on institutional criteria within the power-sharing and power-division dimensions, as developed in Lijphart's Patterns of Democracy (1999). The application of the ten criteria results in a mixed outcome, with an overall modal value of ‘moderately consensus’, a modal value of strongly majoritarian for the executive-parties dimension, and moderately consensus for the federal-executive dimension. The highly varied scores for each of the criteria, particularly within the first of Lijphart's two dimensions, present several problems. It is argued that the statistical modal value represents a distorted image of Namibian politics. Namibia scores consistently on the majoritarian side for criteria which conceptually concern the essence of the consensus modal. Moreover, apparent consensus features such as tripartite institutions, bicameralism, and a rigid constitution do not ‘behave’ as such due to one-party dominance, and neither does proportional representation produce consensus politics. Lijphart's criteria are too formal, and should not receive equal weight. The article concludes that power-sharing is better investigated by focusing on just two criteria, namely the party system and the strongly related criterion of government coalitions. Moreover, it is essential to examine political behaviour, in particular of governing elites, to look for the presence of cooperation and compromise, paradoxically issues which were more prominent in Lijphart's earlier work.     

The Difficulties of Common Security: On the Need for Value Consensus as a Basis for International Security

The essence of international security is common security, which relies heavily on basic consensus on security concepts and strategies among nations. However, since the beginning of the 20 th century, such a consensus or value basis has become very “thin” as a result of the following four factors: the inception of the global international system along with its cultural diversity; the great changes in political, economic and military arenas; the rise of nationalism and popular politics; and the emergence of superpowers and their antagonistic ideologies. Within strategic culture, there is juxtaposition between confrontational culture and cooperative culture. In security concepts, people have different preferences for national, international or global security. In terms of security strategies, there exist several competing models such as hegemonic stability, balance of power and institutional cooperation. The primary aims of international security remain: avoiding major wars, maintaining the stability of the international system and safeguarding the integrity of the nations. There are two new challenges: promoting global economic justice to avoid any domestic or international conflicts caused by an imbalanced international economic order; and meeting the challenges of various non-conventional security issues affecting human life on a global scale. In an era of security interdependence, the international community must make joint efforts to rebuild the consensus on security in light of the fundamental values of common security and cooperative security, and to practice a truly “international” security strategy so as to break away from the security dilemmas inflicted by each nation’s reliance on its own self-help and competing “national” security strategy.     

Context and Content toward Consensus in Public Mediation

The mediation of public conflicts is a complex interactive, social‐psychological, and often politicized process. Because of their complexity, the literature on how to effectively mediate these conflicts remains imprecise. In this study, I have focused on the sequencing of the overall mediation process and the interplay between initial conditions, mediation styles, and process dynamics to explore predictable patterns from early stage to deadline negotiations. By undertaking a two‐step qualitative comparison of twenty‐three public mediation cases, I have attempted to identify “equifinal” pathways — that is, a variety of different ways in which the same outcome can be achieved — that can lead to mediation success (or failure). My analysis reveals that both inclusivity (i.e., including all relevant participants in the process) and mediation institutionalization (i.e., the mediation process is sufficiently embedded in the political and administrative system) correlate to greater mediation effectiveness. Furthermore, this study also suggests that such key elements of deliberative negotiations as recognition and argumentation are essential for reaching a consensual agreement.     

Enforcing consensus? The hidden bias in EU democracy promotion in Central and Eastern Europe

Democracy is a primary export norm of the European Union (EU). It has also played a key role in the conditionalities that have governed the accession processes of new member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The EU has often been accused of offering little guidance regarding the specifics of desirable democracy models and the means of their consolidation. But are these accusations justified? In the first part of this article a detailed examination of European Commission opinions and reports reveals that it has consistently promoted a specific model of democracy in future member states. It shows a strong bias in favour of Lijphart's model of consensus democracy, which is indiscriminately advocated for prospective member states. The second part of the article draws attention to the serious obstacles which exist in the region to the realization of this model. We question the wisdom of the Commission's one-size-fits-all democratic model given these obstacles and the real-life diversity of political contexts in the region.     

Chronicling the Complexification of Negotiation Theory and Practice

The essay reviews the content of twenty-five years of Negotiation Journal , identifying themes and issues explored on its pages in the past, the current issues challenging the field's scholars and practitioners, and the issues likely to confront us in the future. It argues that while we in the field hoped for simple, elegant, and universal theories of negotiation and conflict resolution, the last twenty-five years have demonstrated the increasing complexification of negotiation theory and practice, from increased numbers of parties and issues, and dilemmas of intertemporal commitments, ethics, accountability, and relationships of private action to public responsibility.     

When governments ignore public opinion in foreign policy: Poland and the Iraq invasion

This article asks why the Government of Poland participated in the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 when a large majority of the Polish public was opposed to national involvement in Iraq. The aim is to further an understanding of the circumstances under which democratic governments ignore public opinion in their foreign policy decision-making. The article argues that a combination of three circumstances increased the willingness of the government to ignore the public. First, the Iraq issue had relatively low salience among the Polish voters, which decreased the domestic political risks of pursuing the policy. Second, the government's Iraq policy was supported by a considerable consensus among the political elite. Third, the political elites were unified in their perceptions that participating in the invasion would yield essential international gains for Poland.     

Rise of China and its Implications for India

正The economic success of China in the last thirty years is the most impressive and most important story of development in human history.China has had 10 per cent growth rate over last 30 years.No other major country in the world has achieved it before.During this period,over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty.Inflation rate was moderate and growth was largely financed from domestic sources.China also had tremendous     

The Next Generation: Creating New Peace Processes in the Middle East

This essay describes how Israeli students in a course on mediation and consensus building taught in an Israeli university law department by an American law professor and an Israeli instructor analyzed and studied the conflict in the Middle East. It describes the suggestions they made for process design for the next stages of whatever peace process might emerge for the region. In light of the students' suggestions, the authors present some ideas as to how different approaches to reconciliation and peace might be used, managed, and coordinated.