反恐与国际秩序

“９·１１”事件后，打恐已成世界政治中心和最大焦点。国际社会的大多数国家和美国对如何打恐和通过打恐建立什么样的国际秩序歧见颇大。是否尊重国家主权、是否应加强联合国的作用、是否在平等的基础上加强国际合作和是否遵循国际法是两种秩序观的分水岭。美国通过打恐，希冀建立单极独霸国际秩序的图谋可能有所得，但最终将是一枕黄粱。国际政治、经济新秩序终将成为时代主流。     

试论冷战后印度的国际秩序观

印度的国际秩序观是指印度独立以来对国际秩序及其发展变化的总体看法、态度和立场。其形成与发展主要基于印度的国家利益，并受国内因素和国际环境影响。冷战结束后，印度的国际秩序观相应出现新的发展与变化，着力于循序渐进地改变当前不合理的国际秩序。印度的国际秩序观在其政府制定对外政策和指导外交行为方面发挥了重要作用，并对当今国际社会产生了一定影响。总体看，其主流是积极、进步的，但由于受主观因素和客观条件限制，也存在着一定局限性。     

构建中俄战略利益共同体,促进亚太地区稳定与发展

21世纪的亚太地缘政治经济正在发生重大变化,在这一新的地缘变化格局中,中俄将发挥越来越重要作用。两国旨在共同努力建立公平的国际秩序、维护公正的国际原则、捍卫共同的国际安全、开展平等的国际关系、推进合作共赢发展的全面战略协作日益加强。构建中俄战略利益共同体不仅符合现实要求,而且符合两国关系未来发展要求。     

中国国际战略面向未来的理论观照

本文试以历史唯物主义和国际关系理论来诠释中国外交战略的发展,在国际格局多极化和经济全球化的时代背景下洞悉中国所面对的新的国际战略问题,从分析国际关系体系和国际政治秩序出发,阐述中国在新时期的国际秩序观、国家利益观、国际主义观、国家发展观等理论问题.     

大变局与中国外交的选择

当今世界处于"百年未有之大变局",经济社会文化大发展、国际秩序大变革、国家间关系大调整,世界面临的不稳定性、不确定性突出,多边主义面临危机,全球治理遭遇挑战。面对大变局,美国采取了逆全球化政策,欧盟、日本采取迂回多边主义政策,俄罗斯主张重构世界规则秩序。与之不同,中国坚持和平发展道路,践行合作共赢的开放战略,坚定维护多边主义。中国要继续加强研究世界正在发生的大变局,对外交往中保持务实、自信、低调,全面深化国内改革,顺应"大变局"塑造和延长战略机遇期,适应"大变局"构建更加公正合理的国际秩序。     

按战略协作伙伴关系对中俄产业互补性与共生性合作的规划研究

中俄经贸科技合作是实现两国战略协作伙伴关系的经济基础，把两国经贸科技合作提升到一个更高水平，不仅符合两国根本性和长远性利益，而且对建立多极化和公正合理的国际秩序，维护世界的和平、稳定与安全也是十分重要的。自８０年代末中俄（当时为苏联）两国关系正常化到现在的１０年间，应该肯定地说，两国政治关系的改善和发展是积极地。特别是江泽民主席和叶利钦总统１９９８年１１月在莫斯科举行的第一次非正式会晤极大地促进了双边关系的发展，并将按既定的战略目标继续深化实质性的合作。然而与中俄两国政治关系的发展和两国经济规模…     

国际新秩序与联合国改革

联合国的成立是国际秩序的重大进步。二战后相当长时间内,国际社会存在着两个既并行又互相交织、互相影响的国际秩序,即联合国秩序和冷战秩序,但联合国秩序代表了人类社会的发展方向,因此更有生命力。冷战后,出现了两种国际新秩序之争,双方都需要联合国,但将联合国置于不同的地位一个是要将联合国变成“制度霸权”的工具,一个是要提升联合国的地位,使之成为公正、合理的国际新秩序的核心机制。双方都提出要改革联合国。目前,联合国改革虽然涉及多方面的内容,触及国家之间复杂的利益关系,但核心问题是联合国发展方向,它将直接影响到国际新秩序的建立。     

新干涉主义对国际秩序的冲击

冷战结束，美国成为唯一超级大国之后，先是以“人道主义干预”，后来改用“保护的责任”为旗子，以武力干涉别国内政为手段实现政权更迭的新干涉主义成为美国推行霸权主义的一种思潮和模式。这种新干涉主义对国际秩序的冲击十分严重，它直接破坏了《联合国宪章》的宗旨和原则，危害地区和世界和平，遭到国际社会特别是广大发展中国家的反对。鉴于“保护的责任”已被塞进2005年纪念联合国成立60周年首脑会议的成果文件中，因此，有必要对维护国际秩序的相关内容进行详细厘清。     

新时代中国国际秩序观:认知、政策取向与实现路径

中国参与了现行国际秩序的创建,认同现行国际秩序的价值和作用,同时认为其需要进一步改革创新,这种改革创新随着百年未有之大变局的到来更显迫切。中国是现行国际秩序的受益者,主张维护其合理内核,并针对其欠缺之处和国际形势发展变化进行改革完善,以构建人类命运共同体为国际秩序变革的最终目标。为了更好地维护、推进国际秩序变革,中国坚定维护多边主义,维护《联合国宪章》的宗旨和原则,推动国际关系民主化、法治化、合理化,积极构建以合作共赢为核心的新型国际关系,推动全球治理体系朝着更加公正合理的方向发展,推动"一带一路"建设,构建经济全球化新格局。新时代中国国际秩序观继承和发扬了中国共产党人追求公平正义的思想底色与精神气质,体现了中国的文化特色与历史经验,为全球治理贡献了中国智慧。     

美国对外政策与俄美关系

冷战后特别是“9·11”以来,美国始终谋求巩固由它领导的单极秩序及其超级大国地位,导致许多国家对美作为“世界领袖”的民主性及其管理世界的方法产生了怀疑。目前,俄美之间对共同利益还缺乏一致性的评价,也没有准备好建立平等的战略伙伴关系。其中一个重要原因就是两国对全球化时代的挑战与威胁,以及两国活动中的全球性因素有不同理解。美对外政策使国际关系进一步复杂化,美国应将建立新的国际秩序和确定它在其中的作用尽快提上议事日程。新的国际秩序应该是世界大国重奏“协奏曲”,并使之成为改变当代世界和在各个领域维系平衡的基础。     

Russia’s Neorevisionist Challenge to the Liberal International Order

Abstract

A conventional opinion is that Russia is trying to destroy the liberal international order. Russia indeed defies it, but also justifies its foreign policy with the liberal order’s normative frameworks and reproaches the West for not standing up to these norms. Moreover, Moscow does not present any alternative vision. Russia complains about the internal contradictions of the liberal order: sovereignty vs. intervention, pluralism vs. universality, US hegemony vs. equality and democracy, although it also exploits these contradictions. In fact Russia demands an adjustment of the liberal order rather than its eradication and should, therefore, be classified as a neorevisionist power. Two elements underlie Russia’s at times aggressive foreign policy conduct. The first one, its feeling of being ill-accommodated in the present order, predefines the direction of the policy. The second, the prioritisation of foreign policy over domestic reforms, explains the intensity of Russian discontent and its occasional aggressive manifestations. Russia’s domestic consensus regarding its foreign policy, including views on the liberal international order, facilitates this aggressiveness. Three policy conclusions can be drawn: acknowledging that Russia uses the inherent contradictions of the liberal international order opens up possibilities for dialogue and an eventual overcoming of the crisis; the survival and strengthening of the liberal order depends on its embrace of all major players, including Russia, and hence, the need for some adjustments to the order itself; and finally such adjustments presuppose Russia’s readiness to shoulder responsibility for the (reformed) liberal international order.     

海洋话语与国际秩序转变

国际关系的演进表明,海洋话语转变是国际秩序转变的重要风向标。文章对海洋话语进行了概念分析,并将其细分成海洋硬话语与海洋软话语,明确其包涵因素和互动关系。战争、谈判、国际会议、条约及协定等是国家争取战略主导权、在国际权力格局中占据优势的重要手段,可作为海洋话语与国际秩序之间的互动机理。海洋话语与国际秩序转变主要经历了欧洲主导时期和美国主导时期,且美国主导时期延续至今。在“百年未有之大变局”时代,海洋世界多极化趋势显著,海陆联动明显,“泛海洋时代”到来;海洋话语的话语主体、结构设计、海缘范畴及议题领域等均在经历多维嬗变,国际海洋新秩序建构的可能性和必要性在不断提升。中国需把握好角色定位与策略选择,优化中国海洋战略,树立新海洋安全观,踏实构建海洋话语,在国际海洋新秩序的构建中发挥积极引领作用。     

印度对非洲的软实力外交及经验借鉴

面临着冷战后国际形势的变革,印度的外交观念、外交方式也发生了相应的调整。印度在制定对外政策时愈加重视软实力的作用,这在对非洲关系中得到了明确体现。印度通过实施经济援助、加强教育文化交流、促进与非洲国家的军事合作以及支持非洲在国际体系中的合法权益等方式极大促进了双边关系发展。非洲在中国对外战略中具有重要地位,我国应积极借鉴印度对非洲软实力外交经验以促进中非关系发展。     

The Berlin Republic,Iraq, and the Use of Force

This article holds that German security policy and attitudes towards the use of force remain framed by the distinct strategic culture that emerged during West Germany’s rearmament and international rehabilitation in the 1950’s. This strategic culture, characterised by strong anti-military sentiment and a commitment to multilateral diplomacy and international law, determined Germany’s position over Iraq and its ongoing opposition to the US-led invasion of the country. However, the strength and highly vociferous nature of Germany’s opposition to US policy also indicated that German strategic culture is itself evolving, as both elites and society reconsider aspects of German national history and the role of collective memory. Much of this new discourse relates to the notion of the ‘Berlin Republic’, which in foreign and security policy terms is synonymous with the emergence of greater self confidence, the introduction of more ‘national’ vocabulary into foregin policy statements and a less reflexive attitude to transatlantic security.     

Reputations,Perceptions, and International Economic Agreements

How do countries’ actions on the international stage affect their reputations? We propose that, particularly when evaluating countries about whom individuals may have few prior beliefs, international agreements may hold particular sway in establishing countries’ reputations. Specifically, if a relatively unknown country joins an organization with a country that has a good reputation, individuals will judge that original state to be less risky; if the better-known countries are generally perceived to have a bad reputation, the less-known state will also look more risky. This article presents evidence from a survey experiment in which individuals are asked about the weight of various factors in their perceptions of countries’ reputations. Subjects would randomly receive a prompt about a country’s domestic policy reform or its ties to other countries via economic or cultural agreements. The results show that states’ international ties play a role in assessments about country reputations. We also examine possible mechanisms underlying this finding. Lower risk associated with agreements with good countries is largely a function of anticipated economic benefits. However, the higher risk associated with agreements with bad countries seems to be more a function of anticipated political closeness between countries.     

俄罗斯海上战略通道思想与政策探析

在历史上,俄罗斯为了争夺出海口,占领和控制黑海海峡,与西方列强展开激烈的争夺。冷战结束后,俄罗斯采取更为现实的做法,积极发展海军,以加强海上战略核威慑力量为突破口,重视海上的国际合作,切实维护好与俄罗斯利益相关的海上通道的安全。研究俄罗斯海上通道安全的思想和政策,对维护国际战略通道的安全与合作,制定中国的通道战略思想具有重要意义。     

NATO: The View from the East

Abstract

Relations between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and NATO have placed more emphasis on cooperation than confrontation since the Cold War, and Ukraine has begun to move towards membership. At the popular level, on the evidence of national surveys in 2004 and 2005, NATO continues to be perceived as a significant threat, but in Russia and Ukraine it comes behind the United States (in Belarus the numbers are similar). There are few socioeconomic predictors of support for NATO membership that are significant across all three countries, but there are wide differences by region, and by attitudinal variables such as support for a market economy and for EU membership. The relationship between popular attitudes and foreign policy is normally a distant one; but in Ukraine NATO membership will require public support in a referendum, and in all three cases public attitudes on foreign policy issues can influence foreign policy in other ways, including the composition of parliamentary committees. In newly independent states whose international allegiances are still evolving, the associations between public opinion and foreign and security policy may often be closer than in the established democracies.     

New EU Members in Europe's Security Policy

What impact will the 2004 round of enlargement have on the European Union's common foreign and security policy? This article argues that the new members' arrival in theory strengthens the Euroatlantic camp within the EU. This impact has, however, been limited by the accession states' difficulty in exercising effective influence in Brussels so far, and their foreign policy is also coming under pressure at home because of the unpopularity of the Iraq War. The newcomers hold distinct views on the EU's policy toward Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union. On this point, their efforts have begun to slowly but demonstrably transform the European Union's own involvement in countries on the EU's eastern frontier. In addition, the first signs are becoming apparent of the new members' effective imprint on the EU's common foreign and security policy.     

A More Turbulent and Troubled World

The year 2016 marked the 25th anniversary of the end of the Cold War and the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 attack.Though international relations are constantly adjusted,the world is by no means more stable and orderly.International order reshaping triggered by the 2008 financial crisis is deepening,with chaos of various kinds popping up here and there.In the sociopolitical field,the "Trump phenomenon" and Brexit indicate serious weakening of the authority of traditional political systems and elites.In major country relations and international security,the world is witnessing the rise of emerging countries and the and fall of the West,fiercer US-Russia and Sino-US wrestling of strategic significance,and greater global and regional security risks.In global governance,while adjustment of UN-centered global governance is laboring along,national rivalries touch core issues,making global governance more urgent.     

不确定下的担忧：冷战后东盟国家对中国在地区安全角色的认知

冷战结束之后,东南亚地区国际局势发生了巨大的变化,然而对东盟国家来说,这种变化并没有让它们获得更多的安全感。它们一致的看法是,本地区所面临的最大威胁来自地区大国崛起所带来的地缘政治的不确定性,而这种不确定主要来自中国的稳定与未来发展的不可预测性,如何应对不确定所引发的担忧则构成了东盟国家对华政策的核心问题。