2011年新加坡大选中工人党的竞选策略探析

在2011年国会大选中,新加坡工人党在保住后港单选区的基础上,在阿裕尼集选区击败外交部长杨荣文率领的人民行动党团队,共取得了6个议席。这是自新加坡1988年集选区制度实行以来,反对党第一次战胜人民行动党拿下集选区,也是1966年以来反对党取得议席最多的一次大选。这届大选被认为是新加坡的政治分水岭。工人党之所以能取得如此战绩,是由于它采取了正确的竞选策略：工人党整合人才资源,物色到了可媲美人民行动党的候选人;抓住转战时机,刘程强适时走出后港;提出了“第一世界国会”“副司机”等全国性课题;不为反对而反对,打造理智的建设性反对党形象;挟上届大选余威,综合考量历史、地理因素;准确把握竞选过程中的细节。     

90年代新加坡政党制度的特点

９０年代以来,随着新加坡民众政治参与要求的日益增加,政治多元化成为新加坡社会中的一种新趋向,政治民主化的要求在社会的每一个角落发出了不同的呐喊,与此相对应,政治舞台上反对党的力量有所增强,反对党议员重返议会,大选中反对党的得票率不断回升。在议会中,人民行动党议员对政府提出的疑问和质询的议案不断增加。人民行动党为了巩固和维护一党独大的政党政治格局,也不断作出努力和调整、政党政治己走向了制度化。１．反对党重新活跃在新加坡政治舞台上,人民行动党一统天下的局面受到不断的挑战。人民行动党是新加坡政治的核心…     

从东南亚国家政府换届看其政治社会新发展

自2010年底以来,缅甸、越南、新加坡和泰国相继举行大选。大选过程及其结果透露了非常丰富和重要的政治信息,缅甸的军人政权向民主政府转型;新加坡执政党依然一党独大,但反对党实力有突破性增长;越南继续进行政治制度改革的探索;泰国迎来了社会和解的契机。     

1997年东南亚重大事件

新加坡执政党大选全胜组成新内阁 新加坡国会大选结果于1月3日揭晓:自1968年以来一直执政的人民行动党赢得83个议席中的81席,以绝对优势继续执政。1月18日,新加坡组成新内阁,新内阁成员与上届相比变动不大,只有4名阁员的职务有变动。     

巴西大选和巴西政党格局

2010年大选是巴西在20世纪80年代中期实现再民主化以来的第6次大选。依靠卢拉政府的卓越政绩,执政联盟在大选中获胜,其候选人罗塞夫当选总统。执政联盟扩大了自身在国会众参两院的席位优势,它控制的州长职位也超越反对党联盟。本次大选进一步表明,中间和中左立场的政党成为巴西政治舞台上的主导力量。劳工党和巴西社会民主党在巴西政党格局中的作用日渐突出。     

孟加拉国大选

一、大选在反对党抵制下举行的经过 2月15日,孟加拉国第6次议会选举在3个主要反对党人民联盟、民族党和伊斯兰大会党的抵制下举行。据2月19日统计出的结果,执政的孟加拉民族主义党已获得300个席位中的201席(其中48席因无竞选对手而直接当选),已大大超过半数。由于有些选区需重新投票,     

新加坡的1997年大选

新加坡于1997年1月2日举行了大选。其结果,执政党人民行动党大获全胜。但是,就选举制度本身的特征等来看,未必绝大多数国民都支持人民行动党。本文拟基于大选,就1965年建国以来取得飞速经济增长的新加坡政治成熟问题加以探讨。 第一,通过分析大选的过程及其结果对新加坡的政治结构加以概括。第二,以最近的动向为中心就1990年以来担任总理的吴作栋的政治姿态进行探讨。最后,列举吴作栋就任总理以     

人民行动党对新加坡民主政治发展的作用分析

新加坡人民行动党为维护该党执政的合法地位,始终允许反对党参与国会议员的竞选,保留了新加坡原有的精英式行政体系,也积极地吸收社会精英参与政治事务。人民行动党为吸收更多的人员参与政治事务,遴选非选区议员和官委议员参与国会事务,推动总统的直接选举和增加总统的实际权力,注重吸收少数族裔担任国会议员,建立吸收社会民意的政治组织,减少芳林公园民主政治活动的限制因素,为社会民众构建政治参与的网络平台。     

你好，中国!——专访柬埔寨桑兰西党主席桑兰西

在柬埔寨大选中获得24个国会议席的桑兰西党(简称桑党),被人民党(简称人党)和奉辛比克党(简称奉党)联手阻击在政府和国会之外,不得不继续充当反对党角色.这个活跃在柬埔寨政坛将近十年,正在崛起的党及其领导人桑兰西,已经越来越受到柬埔寨国内及国际上人们的广泛关注.桑兰西成为人民党最担心的政治对手.     

蒙古国国家大呼拉尔第二届大选

1996年6月30日,蒙古国举行了国家大呼拉尔(议会)第二届全国直接选举,执政的人民革命党惨败,反对党民主联盟获胜。 一、大选情况 全国121.7万选民按《选举法》以无记名投票方式,在76个选区各选出一名议员。由于蒙古国现为多党议会制国家,各种政治力量都视议会大选为至关重要的大事。参加竞选的,除人民革命党(前共产党)外,另有11个政党,其中主要反对党民族民主党、社会民主党、绿党和宗教徒民主党组成的竞选联盟“民主联盟”被认为是唯一堪与人民革命党抗衡的力量。各党共提出候选人315名,其中人革党74名,民主联盟76名,其他党派和无党派人士165名。大选前,各种政治力量一致认为,胜方仍是人革党,但选举结果民主联盟却是大赢家,获50席;人革党获25席;无党派人士1席。这宣告了人革党自1921年革命胜利后连续执政75年历史的终结。     

大选后的岸田文雄内阁:执政基础与政策取向

日本岸田文雄内阁的诞生,是执政的自民党为应对大选而"临阵换帅"的结果。执政联盟利用广大选民对新内阁的"政策期待",加之国内疫情趋缓、在野党势力孱弱以及选举对策缜密,从而赢得了大选。大选后岸田内阁的执政基础虽暂且趋稳,但在权力交接、路线调整及国政选举等层面上仍面临诸多严峻挑战,其政治稳定性不容乐观,实现长期执政的难度较大。随着岸田内阁施政渐次展开,其在防控疫情、强化日美同盟与推进印太战略上将保持较强的政策延续性,而在经济增长方式与国家安全保障上将实施政策调整。岸田内阁提出构筑"建设性且稳定的中日关系"并奉行现实主义对华外交方针,但其对外政策取向仍将保持涉华指向明显的惯性,经济安全保障、"人权外交"等政策主张或将加大中日关系摩擦几率。     

The Champion of Human Rights Meets the King of Kings: Jimmy Carter,the Shah,and Iranian Illusions and Rage

Building on the recent re-discovery of the Iranian Revolution, this analysis examines the policies of the Carter Administration and their effects on Iran and the Iranian opposition. Starting with Jimmy Carter's election and hopes for a new era in American–Iranian relations, there occurred the progressive creation and expansion of a rift between the Carter Administration and the Iranian opposition. This rift was exacerbated by stubborn American support for an increasingly weak Shah, and by the complete unwillingness, both in Washington and at the American Embassy in Tehran, to meet with opposition members, let alone with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In this sense, the horizon of the analysis of the origins of the Iran hostage crisis is expanded with a longer-term perspective. The taking of the hostages represented the final act of a troubled relationship that had probably begun before Carter took office.     

The Mahathir effect in Malaysia’s 2018 election: the role of credible personalities in regime transitions

The 14th Malaysian General Elections (Pilihanraya Umum, 14, PRU 14) in 2018 proved to be a watershed election as Barisan Nasional (National Front, BN) lost power for the first time in history. Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope, PH), led by former BN leader and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, captured the majority of parliamentary seats. This article analyses the impact of Mahathir specifically, and credible personalities in general, in unseating dominant one-party regimes. I argue that credible personalities are vital in causing transitions in dominant one-party systems. Explanations on transitions from authoritarian regimes in the literature have typically revolved around incumbent weakness and opposition strength. While dissatisfaction toward the regime is a necessary condition for transition, it is not sufficient. Personalities which can adequately appeal to the masses are important to bridge the credibility gap which the opposition may otherwise have to grapple with. Mahathir’s presence in the opposition was crucial to PH’s victory, as he provided the credibility boost which the opposition needed. This was particularly important for Malay voters. This study is situated within the literature on parties, elections and democratization.     

新加坡:2011～2012年回顾与展望

2011年5月新加坡大选,执政的人民行动党在大选中保持压倒性优势;新加坡政府推出系列措施解决高房价、物价上涨、外来移民等课题;经济增长4.9%,远低于2010年14.8%的增长率;外交上,加强与东盟各国的关系,积极参与东盟一体化进程,中国与新加坡各领域合作不断发展。     

Through the Looking Glass: The Helsinki Final Act and the 1976 Election for President

The controversy surrounding the 1975 Helsinki Final Act made it an enduring issue in the 1976 campaign, and the political backlash against President Gerald R. Ford damaged his electoral chances. Ford's signature of the agreement, his continuation of détente, and his foreign policy more broadly may not have been decisive issues in his contests with Ronald Reagan and then Jimmy Carter, but they certainly were prominent throughout the election. Examining the influence of the Final Act on Ford's election campaign illuminates the extent to which a number of candidates sought to use popular opposition to the agreement to their advantage. Furthermore, it reveals how the 1976 presidential candidates, and Ford in particular, struggled to address growing questions about détente, human rights, and morality in foreign policy. Ford's failure to defend his signature of the Final Act adequately raised concerns about his foreign policy and personal leadership with the electorate.     

The demise of Oslo and Hamas’s political engagement

Abstract

This article explores the consequences of the Oslo Accords on the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas. It shows how the movement positioned itself from the onset in opposition to the treaty and ensuing peace negotiations, rejecting the changes which took place within the Palestinian political establishment; namely, the creation of the interim self-governing Palestinian Authority. It demonstrates how Hamas’s refusal to grant the Oslo Accords any legitimacy was a primary factor in its decision to boycott the first Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections in 1996. With the failure of the peace negotiations and the subsequent eruption of the Second Palestinian Intifada, the framework for the implementation of the Oslo Accords was seen to have effectively collapsed. This article argues that it is this perceived ‘demise’ of the peace process which—to a large extent—underpinned Hamas’s decision to participate in the PLC elections a decade later, in 2006. In mapping this transition, the article explores the factors motivating Hamas’s subsequent entry into the Palestinian political establishment.     

The Contingency of Voter Learning: How Election Debates Influenced Voters’ Ability and Accuracy to Position Parties in the 2010 Dutch Election Campaign

Election campaigns are expected to inform voters about parties’ issue positions, thereby increasing voters’ ability to influence future policy and thus enhancing the practice of democratic government. We argue that campaign learning is not only contingent on voters’ characteristics and different sources of information, but also on how parties communicate their issue positions in election debates. We combine a two-wave panel survey with content analysis data of three televised election debates. In cross-classified multilevel auto-regression models we examine the influence of these debates in the 2010 Dutch parliamentary election campaign on voters’ knowledge of the positions of eight parties on three issues. The Dutch multiparty system allows us to separate voters’ ability to position parties from their accuracy in ordering these parties. We reach three main conclusions. First, this study shows that voters become more able and accurate during the campaign. However, these campaign learning effects erode after the elections. Second, whereas voters’ attention to campaigns consistently contributes to their ability to position parties, its effect on accuracy is somewhat less consistent. Third, televised election debates contribute to what voters learn. Parties that advocate their issue positions in the debates stimulate debate viewers’ ability to position these parties on these issues. In the face of the complexity of campaigns and debates in multiparty systems, campaigns are more likely to boost voters’ subjective ability to position parties than their accuracy.     

跨国佛教组织在新加坡的发展——以新加坡佛光会为例

近年来,越来越多的佛教组织在新加坡设立分支机构或成立会员组织,并在多元种族、多元宗教背景的新加坡社会产生越来越重要的影响。本文以"国际佛光会"的会员组织——新加坡佛光会为研究个案,探讨跨国佛教组织产生的背景及其特点,分析全球化背景下的新加坡佛光会如何实行本土化,从而揭示其发展成功的规律。     

Who Can Reform the Labor Market? IMF Conditionality,Partisanship, and Labor Unions

Labor market reforms are critical for economic growth. Yet, they are politically contentious, and governments, more often than not, are faced with strong opposition from interest groups. Scholarly work shows that governments often rely on external intervention to implement politically difficult reforms. This is the case with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that typically conditions its financing on the implementation of required reforms. Do borrowing governments benefit from IMF programs to overcome domestic opposition to reform by organized interests? Utilizing a unique new data set on IMF conditionality, I show that partisan and electoral concerns and domestic alliances strongly affect the implementation of labor market reforms, even when the IMF imposes them. When faced with increasing number of strikes, left-wing governments are more likely to implement labor market reforms than center/right-wing governments. However, the left is less likely than the center/right to fulfill its international commitments during election years when labor groups are militant. These findings highlight the left’s unique ability to form pro-reform coalitions and the IMF’s conditional role in removing domestic political opposition to reform. Counter-intuitively, right-wing governments still struggle to reform the labor market, even during economic crises and under IMF programs.