东北老工业基地的制度“解锁”与制度创新——兼评关于老工业基地落后成因争鸣的各家观点

关于东北老工业基地落后原因,国内观点不一,但归纳起来制度落后应为主要原因。因此,通过实证分析老工业基地制度落后现状及对中国国有企业改革的实际对制度变迁的诺思模型进行修正的分析,可以充分说明导致老工业基地落后的根本原因是围绕制度“锁定”原因的多因素综合作用的结果。     

越南对私人经济的法律保护

第二次世界大战以后,许多发展中国家都在寻求摆脱经济落后状态并争取经济独立的道路,经济学家也为此做出了不懈的努力。他们曾把希望寄托在“国有化”的战略上,试图通过强有力的政府来振兴民族经济,从而走向繁荣富强。然而由于国际、国内各种社会政治、经济因素的影响,大多数发展中国家经过数十年的努力,仍未彻底摆脱贫困与落后。80年代世界经济的相对衰退给各国的经济发展笼罩了阴影,无论发达国家还是发展中国家都在力图摆脱     

加快吉林省老工业基地调整改造推进国有企业改革的对策

十六大做出“支持东北地区等老工业基地加快调整与改造”的重大决策 ,给吉林老工业基地的发展提供了历史性的机遇。国有企业改革是吉林老工业基地改造的重要组成部分。多年来 ,吉林省国有企业改革经历了让权放利 ,承包经营责任制 ,制度创新、机制转换 ,完成 3年两大目标任务的改革阶段 ,取得了一定进展 ,但同时也出现了诸多深层次的问题。吉林省要以振兴东北老工业基地为契机 ,进一步加快国有企业改革 ,全面建立现代企业制度 ,科学实施“有进有退 ,有所为有所不为”的改革措施 ,不断推进国有企业改革。     

东北经济三题

对目前东北经济的现状如何估计 ,笔者认为 ,东北尽管面临着诸多难题 ,但可以说 ,东北人已经告别了“东北现象” ;作为东北重化学工基地与发达国家的经验相比 ,在重化学工业阶段向后化工业阶段转变的过程中 ,呈现出来的衰退表现为早熟性衰退 ,并且具有相对性。东北依然很有希望 ,在走出“东北现象”之后 ,振兴东北应提倡赶超战略 ,而不是“比较优势”战略。     

振兴东北的社会学思考:加快社会信用体系建设

“东北金融问题”的解决、东北地区进一步市场化改革以及东北地区吸引大量外资、积极参与国际竞争是振兴东北的前提,而这些都需要以完善的社会信用体系作为基础和保障。因此,完善的社会信用体系是振兴东北的一个非常重要的社会基础。为此,东北地区必须加强法制和道德建设,加快社会信用体系的建设与完善,积极营造良好的社会信用环境,为振兴东北奠定坚实的社会基础。     

东北国企职工社会资本与人力资本和谐发展的社会学研究

东北国有企业职工的人力资本与社会资本及其相互关系,是东北国有企业和谐发展的微观社会基础。实证分析表明,东北国企职工人力资本的衰落与提升滞后,同时表明职工的社会资本贫乏与社会资源匮乏。这种微观社会基础上的变化对东北国企的发展形成了负面作用,从微观层面影响了东北老工业基地的改革振兴战略。只有正确认识东北国企职工人力资本、社会资本及其互动对国企微观社会基础的重要作用,才能充分发挥人力资本与社会资本的创新能力,并最终促进东北国企的全面和谐发展。     

“英国病”与撒切尔政府的对策

论述了“英国病”的主要表现及其产生的原因,指出撒切尔政府上台后针对“英国病”所实行的改革,已取得一定成效,但要在几年内扭转英国的衰落趋势,改变其落后地位,很难。     

亚洲地区的经济互补发展与直接资本投资

以下我们简要回顾一下亚洲地区发展到以互补经济关系带动相互经济发展的历史经过。60年代以后,亚洲地区的许多国家与地区相继地实现了高速经济增长,处于所谓“雁行经济发展形态”。过去的亚洲曾经是“贫困”、“经济落后”的代名词,但现在却发展成为被称为“发展的亚洲”、“世界经济增长中心”。推动亚洲地区如此迅速经济发展的经济动力波澜是从美国、日本等旧的经济增长中心推向周边的韩国、台湾、香港、新加坡等NIES(亚洲地区新兴工业化经济群体),然后又推向东南亚国家联盟各国。此外,中国与越南等国也实施了经济改革与     

吉林省民营经济症结分析与发展路径研究

吉林省民营经济发展起步晚、规模小、效益不高、结构不合理,与发达地区相比还明显处于落后状态。而市场的约束、融资瓶颈的制约、发展环境差、缺少优秀企业家队伍等都是吉林省民营经济发展落后的症结;从振兴东北老工业基地出发,民营经济的发展对吉林省经济社会的发展将起到不可或缺的作用。因此,全社会应达成共识,积极营造民营经济健康、公平、快速、持续发展的社会环境,使之获得更大的发展。     

日本移民与伪满洲国的殖民地农业

日伪统治时期，日本帝国主义以“满蒙开拓团”的形式，将３０万左右日本农民强行移入中国东北。日本移民的大规模侵入，使日伪“国有”土地迅速膨胀，土地关系全面殖民地化。与此同时，日本移民的大量涌入，使东北水田开发有了显著的发展，使东北农业也打上了殖民地的烙印。     

韩国外交的美国情结与现实抉择——接近美国并不会疏远中国

韩国李明博新政以来,在政治外交领域有修正卢武铉时期"亲朝亲中疏美"政策,强化美韩同盟,重新亲近美国的迹象。这种现象决不是偶然的,有着深刻的远源近因。主要是由韩国的"美国情结"、"国内政治的溢出效应"以及"对中国崛起的困惑"等国内外原因造成的。但伴随着全方位中韩关系的飞速发展,韩国外交领域相对的"混乱期"的渡过,李明博政府会根据韩国的国情和民意,制定出符合中韩两国利益的对中政策。韩国接近美国只是暂时的,从长远来看,不会冷却或疏远中国,中韩友好合作符合双方的国家利益与现实需要,给两国和两国人民带来了实实在在的好处,应该共同呵护。     

普世福音与新殖民主义——20世纪初期基督教在菲律宾的传播剖析

本文考察与分析了20世纪初期基督教在菲律宾传播的政治宗教因素,指出基督教在菲律宾的迅速扩张,一方面归因于美国在菲律宾推行的带有浓厚道德理想主义色彩的新殖民主义政策,另一方面也离不开19世纪以来基督教海外传播运动所倡导与实践的“三自”传教策略与教会本色化方针。基督教会通过其积极倡导与实践的自立与本色化的传教策略,促进了基督教在菲律宾的发展,同时对维护美国在菲律宾的殖民统治发挥了不可忽视的作用。     

Questions of Research Design in Developing New Tests of the Democratic Peace

We argue that the prevailing dyad-year research design employed in quantitative tests of the theoretical literature on the democratic peace suffers from several limitations. We propose an alternative research design that focuses on three different stages or "games" that typically emerge in the evolution of international disputes over time. In this type of research design the units of observation are the policy choices of "challenger" and "target" states in each of these three games. We argue that this alternative research design has several advantages, such as requiring researchers to test a more complete and extensive set of hypotheses as well as helping them to address statistical issues related to strategic behavior and selection effects.     

印支难民与香港“第一收容港”政策

1979年日内瓦国际印支难民会议上,英国代表香港承诺作为印支难民的"第一收容港",给予出逃的印支难民以临时的庇护,等待西方国家的再安置。港英政府不折不扣地将这一政策执行了近20年。直到特区政府成立后,才于1998年1月正式取消这一政策。造成越南难民和船民问题滞留香港多年的原因是多方面的,既有国际社会层面的因素,也有英国及港英政府方面的原因。越南难民和船民问题,带给香港的最大启示是怎样在人道主义与内部利益冲突中找到一个平衡点。     

Regime Change and Foreign Policy: Portugal,Indonesia and the Self-determination of East Timor

This article argues that the nature of interim governments is not a satisfactory explanation of foreign policy initiatives, or their absence, during particular types of transition to democracy. The proposal is rejected for two main reasons. On the one hand, both the Portuguese (1974-76) and Indonesian (1998-99) transitions to democracy provide evidence that contradicts the proposal. On the other hand, the proposition does not explain which foreign policy decisions are taken and the reasons why. This article argues that we should focus instead on the new individual and corporate evaluations and strategies that come about inside a country as a result of new elite alignments, following the installation of a democratic regime, which opens a window of opportunity for making foreign policy changes. Moreover, the perceptions of the international community also influence the decision-making of individual and corporate interests and their strategies. Where the preceding authoritarian regime pursued foreign policies that the international community regarded as illegitimate, then there will be incentives to change policy. This approach sheds more light on the case studies involving Portugal, Indonesia and East Timor, by identifying correctly the foreign policy initiatives that were taken during the regime transitions to democracy and by explaining the underlying reasons.     

The future of public service broadcasting in South Africa: the need to return to basic principles

Abstract

In this article it is argued that should the South African public service broadcaster, the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), be expected to play a development and nation-building role in the South African society, as it is mandated to do, then policy makers should return to the basic principles underlying the philosophy of public service broadcasting. This needs to be done in a changed media environment characterised by privatisation, internationalisation and digitisation, all leading to increased competition and commercialisation. The argument is developed against the background of a discussion on (1) the reasons for the decline of public service broadcasting, (2) the ways in which public service broadcasters are responding, (3) an overview of the state of public service broadcasting in South Africa at the time of writing (April 2003), (4) a motivation for why South Africa needs a strong public service broadcaster and (5) what can be done to secure the future of public service broadcasting in South Africa. A return to the basic principles of public service broadcasting as the only way out, is suggested. This would require a complete revision of South African broadcasting policy.     

The Impact of Institutionalized Ideas in Coalition Foreign Policy Making: Turkey as an Example, 1991–2002

This study is an attempt to fill an important gap in three distinct yet closely related fields: international relations (IR), comparative politics (CP), and foreign policy analysis (FPA). On a more general level, the study examines the conditions under which domestic ideas influence foreign policy. More specifically, it investigates the role of institutionalized ideas that are represented at the highest levels of the decision-making structure in foreign policy decision outcomes. The theoretical framework advanced in this study calls for three interrelated steps to be taken in examining the relationship between ideas and state action: (1) a clear conceptualization of ideas, (2) a careful analysis of the institutionalization of these ideas, and (3) a methodological exploration of the discord among political actors who represent them. The framework proposes that coalition governments present a potential venue for analyzing and operationalizing how the "battles of ideas" at the decision-making level affect foreign policy choices. The study finds that institutionalized ideas are highly influential in shaping foreign policy choices in coalition government settings when several conditions are fulfilled. These conditions are categorized into three subheadings: (1) reasons to enter into coalition governments, (2) nature of coalition governments, and (3) characteristics of parties. The findings of this study contribute to general IR, CP, and FPA literatures on the role of ideas, coalition government foreign policy making, and comparative foreign policy. The study also contributes to the literature on Turkish politics by entering coalition policy making in Turkish Foreign Policy and showing that Turkish political parties are important actors in foreign policy making.     

Explaining the Awakening: Engagement,Publicity, and the Transformation of Iraqi Sunni Political Attitudes

This article explores the reasons for the dramatic change in Sunni Arab Iraqi attitudes toward the United States from 2004 to 2007, which made possible the “Awakenings,” local groups of mostly Sunni tribes and former insurgents that decided to cooperate with the United States against al Qaeda in Iraq. While there have been many studies of the military strategy, there has been little attention paid to the reasons for the underlying attitude change. This article argues that the dramatic changes in the information environment and in the nature of direct contacts across a range of Sunni society played a crucial role. It draws on a wide range of Arabic language primary sources that have generally been neglected in U.S. military-centric accounts. No single dialogue flipped the Sunnis, and the change would not likely have happened without the material changes underpinning their interests. But years of ongoing, intensive dialogues across a wide range of interlocutors reshaped the foundations of the relationship and to convince those involved individuals of the possibility of a strategic shift. American counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine and the surge helped by proliferating the points of contact with Iraqis and by transforming the relations at the individual level. This has broad implications for key debates in contemporary U.S. foreign policy, as well as for counterinsurgency and international relations (IR) theory.     

Chinese Choices: A Poliheuristic Analysis of Foreign Policy Crises, 1950–1996

This paper uses the Poliheuristic Theory (PH), developed by Mintz, which incorporates both psychological and rational choice components in a synthesis of these previously isolated approaches, to explain decision making in Chinese foreign policy crises. China is an interesting initial case for this project for two reasons. One is its importance as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and rising superpower. The other is China's reputation as a nearly unique "black box"—an especially challenging case—with regard to decision making in foreign policy crises. Taken from the authoritative compilation of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project, the nine cases (with available data) in which China is a crisis actor span the period from 1950 to 1996. A comparative analysis of Chinese decision making in times of crisis is used to test hypotheses derived from the PH. The hypotheses focus on how decisions are anticipated to occur over two stages. Principal expectations are that the non compensatory rule, which places priority on political considerations, will determine viable alternatives at the first stage, while choices more in line with expected value maximization or lexicographic ordering will characterize the second stage.     

The Rise of the Extreme Right in Europe

The rise of the extreme right in Europe in recent years is an important political and social phenomenon. On 22 July 2011, a terror attackcarded out by an extreme-right-wing Norwegian zealot shocked the...