From Reset to Restart: The US-Russia Cyclical Relationship in the Post-Cold War Era

ABSTRACT

After a quarter of a century of oscillating relations between Washington and Moscow, Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy named Russia as one of the main challengers to the US-led order. Power transition theory is used to explain the alternating cooperative and competitive phases during each of the first three post-Cold War US presidencies: first, initial attempts at cooperation are driven by US willingness to integrate its former rival into the liberal order; then, regression into competition follows as Washington’s influence rises in territories that Moscow considers sensitive for its national security.     

冷战后印韩关系的迅速发展及其影响

与冷战时期的相互淡漠相比,冷战后印韩关系迅速发展,21世纪以来急剧升温。促成两国关系迅速发展的因素包括两国的相互认知、两国的亚洲战略、美国的亚太战略部署以及亚太局势的变化。印韩关系的迅速发展已经并将继续影响亚洲的政治安全局势和亚洲经济共同体的构建前景。有鉴于此,中国应该将全球战略的重点转向亚洲,重新思考亚洲国际秩序的建构。     

Trump and the End of an Era? The Liberal International Order in Perspective

ABSTRACT

The liberal international economic and political order which the United States created from the ashes of World War II and has since led is in trouble. To United States President Donald Trump, the order which provided the framework under which sovereign states agreed to follow a rules-based system of economic and political cooperation and shared multilateral governance, has not only allowed other nations (in particular, China) to take advantage of US ‘magnanimity’, but also weakened the United States economically, while asymmetric alliances compromised its military advantages. Given the sustained assault this cosmopolitan order is facing, many fear that it may not survive if Trump is re-elected in November 2020. Indeed, if the United States response to the COVID-19 pandemic is any guide, an ‘America First’ agenda, especially a hard-line approach to China, will shape US policy if Trump wins a second term.     

Present at the Destruction? The Liberal Order in the Trump Era

Abstract

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 sent shock waves across political classes globally and prompted debates about whether his ‘America first’ agenda threatened the liberal international order. During his first year in office, Trump seemed determined to undermine the hallmarks of the liberal international order: democracy, liberal economics and international cooperation. So, are we witnessing the emergence of a “post-liberal” and “post-American” era? Four sources of evidence help frame – if not answer – the question: history, the crisis of liberal democracy, Trump’s world view, and the power of civil society (globally and nationally) to constrain any US President. They yield three main judgements. First, continuity often trumps change in US foreign policy. Second, the liberal international order may have been more fragile pre-Trump than was widely realised. Third, American power must be put at the service of its own democracy if the US is to become the example to the world it used to be.     

冷战后美国亚太安全护持战略行为模式——以南海外交为例

冷战后美国的战略行为模式并非完全承袭基于国际系统结构基本分析框架的霸权护持模式。美国亚太安全护持战略行为模式是基于国际系统进程基本分析框架的导出概念。厘清对安全护持的认识需要解构这一概念,找出蕴涵于其中的基本战略行为,而基本战略行为的判定须通过"基于维度"的考察。施韦勒和米尔斯海默意义上的制衡可以作为这种基本战略行为的分析基底,但制衡的概念必须重塑才能符合基本战略行为的要求,重塑制衡的方式主要是打破其指涉对象的单一维度而进行多维重构。随着冷战后亚太安全环境的变迁,美国的安全护持战略行为模式也存在转型的必要,而制衡行为的转型又是安全护持模式转型的核心。冷战后美国对南海相关声索国的外交行动验证了安全护持模式及其转型的有效性。     

亚太格局视角下俄罗斯的东南亚政策

冷战后随着俄罗斯国家定位的变化,其对外战略相应发生调整,亚太地区成为基本方向之一。进入新世纪,俄罗斯外交的平衡性和多向性不断加强;在其亚太战略中,东盟被看作参与亚太地区多边合作的重要支点。在变动的亚太格局中,东南亚是大国竞逐的重要对象;俄罗斯从自身利益出发,积极发展与东盟及其成员国的关系,以加强对亚太地区事务的参与。而在东盟的大国平衡战略中,俄罗斯被视为制约其他大国的关键性因素。     

The EU and the Global Order: Contingent Liberalism

Abstract

Politicians, diplomats and analysts commonly assume that commitment to multilateralism and liberal norms is part of the EU’s very DNA. Increasingly, however, the EU’s commitment to the liberal global order is more selective. We demonstrate the shift to a more contingent liberalism by examining the EU’s recent record in relation to four different challenges: international trade; US leadership; Russian actions in the eastern neighbourhood; and security in the Middle East. We speculate on what this may portend for the EU’s self-identity, European interests and the integrity of the prevailing global order.     

‘Unfortunate Arabia’: The United States,Great Britain and Yemen, 1955–63

As it emerged from a long, self‐imposed diplomatic isolation after 1955 and then plunged into revolution and civil war in 1962, Yemen confronted its Arab neighbours, the United States, and Great Britain with difficult political challenges. This study of Anglo‐American diplomacy concerning Yemen in the late 1950s and early 1960s reveals the very different British and American interests and priorities in Arabia at the height of the Cold War and underscores the different tactics employed by each nation in pursuit of its regional goals. It also points out the strikingly different attitudes of officials in Washington and London to the phenomenon of Arab nationalism. Further, it highlights the importance of stability in the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula to US and British strategies for ensuring the uninterrupted flow of Persian Gulf petroleum to the West. Finally, this examination of events in southwest Arabia demonstrates how traditional rivalries and animosities in the region shaped the conditions under which the United States and Britain attempted to pursue their interests there.     

The US-Japan Alliance Dilemma in the Asia-Pacific: Changing Rationales and Scope

ABSTRACT

The changes in the US-Japan alliance are taking place in times of a global power shift – a transition from unipolarity to multipolarity – and China’s challenge to the US’ security dominance in the Asia-Pacific. The alliance security dilemma now manifests itself in the rise of ‘entrapment’ concerns for Washington and ‘abandonment’ anxieties for Tokyo. The US increasingly insists on more mutuality in alliance arrangements, while seeking to maintain ambiguity in its defence commitments to Japan. The relative decline of US power and the fluid regional security architecture, however, incentivise Japan to step up preparations for abandonment. Although Tokyo’s hedging strategy contributes to enhancement of the bilateral alliance in the short term, it also paves the way for Japan’s pursuit of strategic autonomy in the medium to long term.     

超越冷战思维,构建和谐的东北亚地区新秩序

当前,东北亚地区正处于冷战后的秩序重构时期。冷战时期的苏美对抗格局结束了,地区形势总体上趋向缓和,各国相互成为重要的经贸伙伴,但是,冷战思维和安全困境仍然存在,成为建立地区新秩序的重要障碍。超越冷战思维,确立平等信任、合作共赢的理念;深化经济合作,推动地区经济一体化进程;加强政治互信,建立安全对话与合作机制,建设一个和平稳定、发展繁荣的东北亚地区和谐秩序将是各国的理性选择。     

US-Arab Gulf Relations amidst Regional and Global Changes

Abstract

The Arab Gulf has long enjoyed privileged relations with the United States. Being home to the world’s largest oil reserves, the US saw it in its strategic interest to keep Arab Gulf states in its camp during the Cold War. The relation developed over the years to include other areas of cooperation such as in the military, economic and even academic fields. However, many factors today challenge this relationship. In the face of the US’ evident retrenchment from the region, the Arab Gulf is showing more inter-GCC cooperation, and Saudi Arabia is trying to forge alliances independently from the US. At the same time, Arab Gulf countries are intensifying their lobbying efforts in the US.     

‘The Privileged Friendship’: Reassessing the Central Intelligence Agency Operation at Zaire’s Kamina Airbase

ABSTRACT

From 1986 to 1991, the United States Central Intelligence Agency funnelled arms to the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola through Zaire’s Kamina Airbase. Recently declassified documents cast new light on the ways that facilitating this operation and protecting its covert status provided invaluable bargaining leverage for Zaire’s president, Mobutu Sese Seko, who demanded political and economic concessions from Washington. As a rare Cold War precedent for the types of covert, temporary basing agreements that the United States is now establishing throughout Africa, the Kamina case thus warrants a substantive reappraisal.     

The dragon in the room: the China factor in the development of US–India ties in the Cold War

ABSTRACT

In recent years, as China has continued to rise as an economic, political and military power, there has been increasing consideration of its role in shaping US–India relations over the last two decades. However, this article, considering the period 1949–1979, shows that American and Indian perceptions of and policy toward China shaped the US–India relationship even during the Cold War. In doing so, the article seeks not just to bring China back into the story of past US–India relations, but also shed light on the China–India–US triangle of today and of tomorrow.     

The Middle East’s Troubled Relationship with the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The Middle East has had a complex relationship with the so-called liberal international order. Many peoples and elites of the region welcomed the promise, and promises, of the liberal order after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and sought to integrate into it; for other peoples and elites, there have been negative reactions and resistance to it. Today, a majority of countries are integrated, at least nominally, into the global order, while some are decidedly still in systemic challenge with it. The Middle East has also had difficulty in cohering as a region; the condition today is one of collapsed regional order and proxy conflict.     

亚太安全与中国

90年代以来 ,美、中、日、俄和东盟“四国五方”关系构成了亚太多极格局的大体框架 ,并对亚太地区安全环境的全局产生影响。中国必须在对外关系中趋利避害 ,谋求发展。冷战后 ,中国在亚太地区的国际环境和周边环境有了很大的改善 ,但同时仍存在着许多不确定和不利的因素 ,将对中国的安全构成直接或间接的不利影响。     

东南亚区域间主义的历史考察

从历史角度考察,东南亚区域间主义早于东南亚区域主义,其发展进程中存在着双区域间主义、跨区域主义和半区域间主义3种基本类型。就东南亚本地行为体在其中的地位和作用看,它经历了从冷战时期“追随”为主、“弱主导”和“弱参与”为辅,到后冷战时期“强主导”为主、“强参与”为辅的重大变化,由此实现了从“依赖”到“自主”乃至“中心”的根本性转变。这一历史演变进程表明,东南亚区域间主义与区域主义是紧密联动的,由此形成可以产生某种结果的互动关系和催生共同制度和集体认同的建构关系。     

Political terrorism in South‐East Asia

This article will provide an overview of one specific non‐military threat that is beginning to assume greater prominence on south‐east Asia's broadened security agenda: political terrorism.¹ Although by no means new to the south‐east Asian environment, for much of the twentieth century its importance was sidelined and, in a sense ‘contained’, by the more pressing concern over US‐Soviet nuclear rivalry. With the end of the Cold War, however, the ‘bottle has been uncorked’ on a variety of lower‐level threats, with issues such as terrorism now taking on greater prominence and relevance in their own right as significant regional and national security concerns.²     

The India–US–China triangle from New Delhi: overcoming the “hesitations of history”

ABSTRACT

With the focus of global politics shifting to the Indo-Pacific and the maritime domain becoming the new theater of global power politics, the triangular relationship between India, the US, and China needs a fresh evaluation. This article examines the evolution of the India-US-China triangle since the end of the Cold War from the perspective of New Delhi. It argues that a combination of structural and domestic political variables has led to a significant shift from a soft balancing approach by China and India vis-à-vis the US to a more robust limited hard balancing by India and the US vis-à-vis China.     

Gerald Fitzmaurice (1865–1939), Chief Dragoman of the British Embassy in Turkey by Berridge,G.R

Nixon was one of the first American politicians to advocate the building of a strong US‐Japan economic alliance and the Nixon administration laid the foundation for the healthy post‐Vietnam dialogue that the Carter and Reagan administrations cultivated with Tokyo. This article examines that foundation, and its contribution to the general post‐World War II US‐Japan relationship. Vietnam changed America, and it even changed the way a once arch‐cold warrior, Nixon, viewed the significance of US‐Japan relations. After years of Washington's scoffing at or ignoring Japanese interests, this American ‘discovery’ of Japan was an important development in itself. Hence, this article also examines a relationship in transition which, for Nixon's America, was an important first step in the construction of a post‐Vietnam view of Asian/Pacific cooperation.