丝绸之路经济带在中亚的推进:成就与前景

中亚地处欧亚大陆的中心地带,紧邻中国西北地区,是丝绸之路经济带陆上要冲,也是丝绸之路经济带的核心利益区。自中国在中亚地区首次提出共建丝绸之路经济带倡议以来,在中国与中亚国家共同努力下,丝绸之路经济带建设在"五通"领域收获了一些早期成果,同时也面临着中亚国家政局变数较多、贸易投资环境不佳、安全形势严峻以及大国竞争等一系列挑战。因此,在肯定成绩、正视问题的基础上,中国应秉持奋发有为、积极塑造的方针,遵循多方合意的多元化路径逐步推进中亚地区丝绸之路经济带建设。     

浅析21世纪中亚地区的安全格局

本文对21世纪中亚地区地缘政治形势和国际安全格局的变化做出了基本的判断,对可能影响中亚地区格局走向的各种因素进行了分析,并预测了新世纪中亚安全形势的前景.中亚地区的稳定是比较脆弱的,容易受到不利环境和外部因素的影响和冲击.因此,积极、有效的国际合作是避免冲突的重要方式之一.中国必须重视与中亚国家在安全和经济领域内的合作,参与该地区的国际竞争,明确本国在中亚的战略.     

浅析美国对中亚政治体制评价的历史演变

苏联解体以来,随着国际形势的变化,美国不断调整在中亚地区的国家利益,并形成了4个不同历史时期的中亚政策:支持中亚国家独立时期(1991～1996)、全面介入中亚事务的阶段(1997～2000)、九一一事件后中亚成为美国新全球战略支点的时期(2001～2005)和推进"颜色革命"及其失败后的阶段(2005～).在这4个历史阶段,虽然推进中亚国家实现政治民主化始终是美国对中亚的政策目标之一,但由于美国对中亚的政策内容在不同历史阶段变化较大,所以该目标在美国对中亚政策的重点排序上也有明显变化.伴随着这一变化,美国对中亚的政治体制评价也出现了阶段性的历史演变.     

中国中亚外交的理论和实践

和平发展与和谐世界理论是中国中亚外交的基础.中亚地区形势复杂,各种矛盾和利益交织一起.中国充分认识到中亚地区的特点,提出要把这一地区建设成"持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐地区.由于中国在中亚地区有较大的影响力,与所有中亚国家都保持着良好的关系,而且有上海合作组织的平台,中国推动中亚和谐地区建设的构想,基本具备了实现的条件.     

中亚五国民族关系问题

本文主要论述了中亚国家独立后复杂的民族结构和民族矛盾,即突出主体民族地位,与其他民族特别是俄罗斯人的矛盾,历史上遗传下来的跨界民族使中亚地区民族关系复杂化;中亚国家对民族政策的调整和变化,即奉行民族复兴政策,以巩固新独立国家的主权和统一;否定民族自决权,倡导文化多元化;强化"人权和公民权",淡化民族观念;反对极端民族主义,建立和谐民族关系;采取措施缓和与俄罗斯人的矛盾;恪守历史形成的边界,维护中亚国家稳定与民族关系和谐.文章还论述了中亚与中国西北地区的跨界民族问题.     

阿富汗安全局势的走向及其对中亚的影响

美国启动从阿富汗撤军的进程,不仅对阿富汗安全局势将带来重要的影响,也将影响到相关国家特别是中亚国家。阿富汗的安全、稳定与重建直接关系到它所在地区以及相邻地区的安全、稳定与发展。因此,必须准确判断阿富汗自身安全形势的变化,把握阿富汗局势走向对相邻的中亚国家以及对中国的作用。     

大国对中亚能源政策的演变及其发展趋势

自中亚国家独立以来，大国对中亚的能源政策经历了不断调整与演变。与此相应，中亚国家为保障本国的利益和安全，也在不断修改本国的能源发展战略，建立和完善与本国经济发展战略相适应的能源合作方面的法律法规和政策措施。未来中亚地区能源发展趋势仍然是大国之间、大国与中亚国家之间的竞争与合作，并拓展到中亚政治、经济、文化等领域，形成相对均衡的多元化、多模式、互利共赢的局面。     

从规则治理到关系治理——三十年来中亚地区治理模式的变迁

2021年是中亚国家独立三十周年的特殊年份。回顾中亚地区的治理历程可发现,该地区的治理模式大体经历了规则治理为主到关系治理为主的演进。中亚国家独立后的优先任务在于学习并接受国际规范与规则,提升自身的国际生存能力,而国际规则在很大程度上指引着中亚国家间的互动及其对国际事务的参与。这种态势,导致中亚地区治理具有浓郁的规范治理的特征。而“9·11”事件后,尤其是当2003～2005年间“颜色革命”波及后苏联空间时,中亚国家意识到处理好与域外大国的关系极为重要,因其直接影响到各国的政权生存,由此导致各国将实现对各种关系的大致平衡视为国家优先任务,这使中亚地区治理的关系治理特征凸显。中亚地区治理模式的转型,反映了参与中亚地区治理的行为体逐渐增多、地区治理议题日益繁杂、治理主体间关系日益复杂等现实。中亚地区治理模式的转型有多重影响,如中亚国家自主性得到显著提高,地区治理成效好坏参半,各国寻求关系平衡增大了大国主导中亚事务的难度,使中亚地区逐渐形成了后自由主义的地区秩序类型。     

当前中亚五国安全形势评析

中亚五国安全形势主要面临三方面威胁：俄美地缘政治角逐加剧可能冲击中亚稳定；中亚国家在自然资源和边界上的争端、地区“三股势力”以及民族矛盾等问题可能引发国家间冲突；中亚五国长期总统集权、换届不畅，吉、塔两国面临政治动荡危险。目前，维护中亚局势稳定的因素暂居上风：俄美基于战略考虑，希望维持中亚地区稳定；中亚区域合作致力于缓解地区性矛盾；中亚五国威权主义政体仍有助于维护国内政局稳定。但从长期看，中亚安全隐忧难以消除。     

俄罗斯中亚地区军事安全战略与军事政策解析

俄罗斯一向把中亚地区视为本国的“战略后院”,不容其他大国挑战其在中亚地区的主导地位。本文通过对俄与中亚国家双边与多边军事合作的分析,揭示了俄罗斯中亚地区军事安全战略与军事政策的主要内容与存在的问题,并对在深入实施西部大开发战略条件下我国如何在与中亚国家开展全方位合作中不损害中俄战略协作伙伴关系等问题进行了思考。     

One Belt One Road,New Diplomacy and Public Diplomacy

正President Xi Jinping put forward the term "Silk Road Economic Belt" on September 7th,2013 in Kazakhstan when he proposed in his speech "to forge closer economic ties,deepen cooperation and expand development space in the Eurasian region,we should take an innovative approach and jointly     

防止海上事件与中美海上军事互信机制建设(英文)

This paper seeks to analyze the deficiencies, underlying flaws, and prospects of the Sino-US military maritime safety consultation mechanism, based on maritime incident prevention theories and typical cases. It also on also offers suggestions on the future development of the Sino-US maritime offers maritime confidence-building mechanism.     

乌克兰政局突变原因及影响(英文)

As a geopolitical pivot in the Eurasian grand chess game, Ukraine has As has been vacillating between the West and East, eking out a living amid fierce contest between Europe and the US as one side and Russia as the opposite. The impact of the geopolitical rivalry on Ukrainian domestic politics, The politics,coupled by economic, social and ethnic factors, resulted in the sudden coupled sudden change in the Ukrainian political situation.     

TTCSP Director James G. McGann Visits CIIS

正On October 27,2014,James G.McGann,director of University of Pennsylvania's Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program(TTCSP),paid a visit to the China Institute of International Studies and delivered a speech titled"The Trend of Global Development and Its Influences on China's Think Tanks".CIIS Vice-President Ruan Zongze chaired     

重新认识战略机遇期(英文)

The Eighteenth Party Congress pointed out that China is still in an The an important period of strategic opportunity. Many people cast doubt on important on how to perceive and grasp the future period of strategic opportunity, and there has been a significant increase in controversial issues that need to be discussed. The purpose and focus of this article is to discuss these questions.     

Speech by President Yan Junqi at the 11~(th) Execu tive Council Meeting of CAFIU (Excerpt)

正The meeting of the 11th Executive Council of CAFIU is convened successfully today.We have reviewed the achievements of the 10thExecutive Council,approved the amended Constitution and elected the new leadership.It is a great honor for me to serve as the President of CAFIU.Therefore,I would like to express my thanks for the trust given by all Council members and the colleagues present     

My Thirty-year Friendship with China

正China and My Family History In a gathering of friends who are all devoted to advancing Japan-China friendship,I told a story about my childhood."I went to China for the first time in 1943…"As soon as I uttered those words,others present looked quite surprised and thought I must have been wrong.Actually I wasn’t wrong.I was just 2 or 3 years old when I first came to China,so I was too young to remember everything.     

Promoting People-to-people Exchanges and Building a Favorable Atmosphere——Sidelights on CAFIU Delegation's Visit to Japan and the Philippines

正At the invitation of Japan NPO "the World" and Philippine Center of Young Leaders in Governance(PCYL),a 6-member CAFIU delegation headed by Secretary-General Ni Jian paid a friendly visit to Japan and the Philippines from November 1 to November 8.During the visit,the delegation had extensive contacts and exchanges with politicians,NGOs and ordinary     

China-Europe Cooperation Embraces New Development Opportunities

正Located in the ends of Eurasian Continent,China and Europe have rather far distance but timehonored relationship.China was a heated topic among enlightenment thinkers in the 18thcentury,let alone in the age of Marco Polo.Afterwards,China’s civil service system became the model pursued by European countries,which made Europe step onto the road of modernization.     

Strategic Significance of the 21~(st) Century Maritime Silk Road and Tactics in its Development

正In a speech delivered at the Indonesian Parliament in October 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping said:"we should further strengthen our maritime partnerships and jointly build the 21st century Maritime Silk Road",articulating China’s willingness to beef up maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries.The Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on