联合国CCW框架下致命性自主武器系统 军控辩争的焦点与趋势

在人工智能革命背景下致命性自主武器系统(LAWS)军控逐渐成为国际热点议题，联合国《特定常规武器公约》(CCW)会谈机制作为其核心平台召开了三次非正式专家会议和三次正式政府专家组会议。技术层面，主要探讨了LAWS的定义和特点，各方基本同意LAWS军控不应当妨碍民用人工智能技术创新，但对目前是否应制定及如何制定LAWS可行定义等问题存在分歧；伦理层面，讨论焦点在于LAWS对于人权和道德的冲击，各方基本认为不应将生死决定权让渡给机器，但对机器是否作为道德主体等问题存在分歧；法律层面，主要关注LAWS对现有国际人道法的冲击，各方基本同意现有国际人道法依旧适用于LAWS管控，但在是否需要除现有国际法之外增加监管机制等问题上存在分歧；军事层面，主要探讨了LAWS扩散风险对战略稳定性的冲击及存在的局限性等问题，各方基本同意研发部署LAWS的责任在于国家和指挥官，但在预防性禁止还是暂时放任，甚至鼓励发展LAWS等问题上存在分歧。展望未来，这一军控机制可能推动制定各方接受的LAWS工作定义，探索将伦理道德嵌入LAWS的可能性与方法，建立LAWS的法律审查机制，拟定暂停部署LAWS的政治宣言或法律文书。由此，中国应继续积极参与CCW框架下LAWS军控探讨，推动管控相关战略风险及伦理法律挑战，以维护自身国家利益和人类安全福祉。     

论当前国际军备控制与裁军形势

长期以来,国际军备控制机制得到国际上的广泛参与和普遍遵守,但由于种种原因,军控机制存在着严重的脆弱性和执行的复杂性。当前在军备控制领域,一方面是美国总统奥巴马"无核武器"的倡议在国际上引起强烈反应,另一方面是朝核、伊核问题前景扑朔迷离,核武器、核材料、核技术扩散形势严峻。此时,美俄两个核大国重启核裁军进程,促使其他核国家也为核裁军、保证核安全采取积极行动,形势有了转变。联合国安理会在促进国际军控、防止核扩散方面也可以有所作为。人们期待2010年的核不扩散条约取得成果。     

无人武器变革及其对非对称安全关系的影响

新军事变革以来,无人武器在作战体系中发挥越来越显著的作用,得到各国的高度重视。历经百年演进,无人武器已具备侦察跟踪、试探诱骗、精确打击和支援保障四大功能。现有无人武器存在依赖遥控和自主水平低下等问题,这是制约其军事潜力发挥的主要瓶颈。未来,“网络式自主化”将成为无人武器变革的突破方向,带来“全体系”“广覆盖”“快反应”和“强协同”四大优势。叠加无人武器“零伤亡”特性所蕴含的政治影响力,弱者基于“抵消与杀伤”策略的抗争能力将受到质变挑战,同时原有差距会发生量变增大。假如缺乏科技和政治上的有力制衡,在技术垄断与社会变迁的双重影响下,非对称安全关系发生恶性演变的风险将显著增加。在“市场化战争”中,伤亡成本降低导致强权政治缺乏约束,低风险优势鼓励政客做出冒险决策,战争伦理的沦丧扭曲公众对非对称战争的认知,而弱者的极限求生手段还可能造成核扩散等“次生危害”。在西方主导的军备控制合作逐渐式微的背景下,中国需要以总体设计统筹无人武器的研发与实践,积极开发反制技术,并争取主导相关军控提议。     

“泛安全化”倾向与东亚军备安全风险

伴随着世界格局的更迭与国际形势的变化，安全问题在国家间交往中被关注的程度愈益加深，新的地缘环境和国际背景催生了“泛安全化”倾向。近年来，以地缘热点问题为中心，东亚地缘环境发生了一系列的新变化，南海问题博弈加剧、朝鲜半岛安全威胁增大、域内领土争端难以解决、日本政治军事大国战略提速、台海两岸关系微妙紧张起来、域外国家频繁插手东亚事务等，致使整个东亚地区在传统安全和非传统安全领域呈现“泛安全化”的不良倾向。这种状况在影响东亚地缘格局走势的同时，也给该地区带来了多层次、多领域的地缘安全风险，并触及敏感的军备安全问题。从东亚地区具有代表性国家的军费及防务支出占国内生产总值的比重来看，目前东亚部分国家军备发展状况相对合理。不过，由于域内复杂多样化的不确定因素、域外势力介入的不可测性以及东亚军备安全的整体庞杂和结构复杂的突出状况，致使整个地区的军备安全前景面临着多种可能性。东亚国家应开展“去安全化”的新型地区合作，推动建立地区性的军备安全风险管控机制，构建新型军备发展与军备安全关系，共同增进东亚地区的安全与和平。     

21世纪初军控的制约因素及其发展趋势

国际军控受到政治、军事等诸多因素的制约,在21世纪初,这些因素呈现出新的特点,深刻地影响国际军控的发展。从总体上来说,本世纪初国际军控形势相当严峻,很难有较大的突破,军控的重点是防止大规模杀伤性武器的扩散,“强制军控”会继续发展。此外,大国争夺军备技术制高点日趋激烈,地区军备竞赛有加强的趋势。     

美国军控政策的演变

美国的军控政策,冷战时期,是以苏联为对手,谋求通过军控协议,制约对方,发展自己,取得对美有利的战略态势;冷战后,美国国家安全政策从对付苏联的全球威胁转向对付重要地区冲突,在军控领域则把防止大规模毁灭性武器及其运载工具的扩散提高到国家安全战略的高度。     

国际军控与裁军的发展趋向

国际军控与裁军的发展趋向汪徐和近年来，随着国际战略形势和世界战略格局的变化，国际军控与裁军进程加快，参加国日益增多，有效性增强，在国际事务和各国安全战略中的地位迅速上升，已成为国际政治和军事斗争的热点。它不仅是大国之间调整关系的重要内容，而且也是影响...     

网络军控：倡议、问题与前景

随着网络空间安全问题的日趋突出,推动网络空间军备控制的呼声渐高。但是达成网络军控条约面临着政治、技术和法律等一系列难题,自愿性、合作性的透明和建立信任措施将成为可能的选择。目前正是网络空间国际规则形成的关键期,一些国家主导网络空间领域规则制定权的意图明显,某些倾向值得注意。     

美苏裁减军备的原因和90年代发展趋向

80年代下半期,美苏军控谈判由控制军备步入裁减军备的新时期。这是战后40多年来推动美苏进行军备竞赛的经济、政治、军事和科技因素发生重大变化的结果。90年代美苏裁减军备的势头可能会加强,但裁减有一定限度。军备竞赛将在低水平上进行。谈判因受各种因素的制约仍会步履艰难。     

国际军备控制向何处去?

军控与裁军始终是国际安全与战略稳定的“晴雨表”,20世纪 80年代末至 90年代中期,军控领域取得了长足进展。近年来,这方面却出现了一系列消极事态的发展,不但使该领域停滞不前,反而在某些方面出现了倒退,致使国际安全和军控体系受到严重冲击和损害。究其原因主要出自布什政府奉行的单边主义和实用主义政策。新世纪国际军控向何处去,值得人们深思。     

International Convention for the Peaceful Use of Cyberspace

Cyber weapons now are an extension of state power. In hopes of gaining a strategic advantage, many countries including the United States, Russia and China are developing offensive cyber capabilities to disrupt political, economic, and social institutions in competitor nations. These activities have led to a cyber arms race that is spiraling out of control. This imminent global threat challenges the international community to be proactive. The purpose of this article is to propose an international convention to throttle the development, proliferation and use of cyber weapons before they cause electronic Armageddon. We begin by examining three successful efforts in arms control and use the lessons learned to draft a convention that can serve as a starting point for formal multilateral negotiations.     

War Games redux? Cyberthreats,US–Russian strategic stability,and new challenges for nuclear security and arms control

Some 30 years since the release of the Hollywood blockbuster War Games, the possibility that hackers might break into nuclear command and control facilities, compromise early warning or firing systems, or even cause the launch of a nuclear weapon has become disturbingly real. While this challenge will impact all nuclear-armed states, it appears particularly acute for the USA and Russia given their large, diverse, and highly alerted nuclear forces. The fact that east–west relations have deteriorated to a nadir perhaps not seen since the 1980s, strategic instability has increased – particularly in the wake of the Ukraine and now Syria crises – and that the nuclear arms reductions agenda appears to have reached a standstill makes this challenge particularly pressing. In this discouraging milieu, new cyberthreats are both exacerbating the already strained US–Russia strategic balance – particularly the perceived safety and security of nuclear forces – and at the same time creating new vulnerabilities and problems that might be exploited by a third party. Taken together, these dynamics add another major complication for current arms control agreements and possible future nuclear cuts, and also seem likely to increase the possibility of accidents, miscalculation, and potential unauthorised nuclear use, especially given the large number of nuclear weapons that remain on “hair-trigger” alert.     

The enemy within: rethinking arms availability in sub-Saharan Africa

Over the past decade small arms and light weapons availability has been singled out as one of sub-Saharan Africa's highest profile challenges. Yet the construction of the threat of arms availability as one of authorised trade and illicit trafficking across international borders has resulted in a narrow focus on regulating lawful exports and imports and brokers. While these are real and legitimate concerns, the authors contend that small arms and light weapons availability should be re-evaluated as a complex social phenomenon involving dynamic supply and demand dimensions. A limited emphasis on controlling authorised transfers to war zones glosses over the challenges of illegal markets, the gradual emergence of national arms production capacities across Africa and the systematic diversion of weapons and ammunition surplus from the domestic stocks of security services into civilian hands. It also obscures a more dynamic landscape of armed violence across the continent which extends beyond war zones. Whilst the conventional interpretation of arms availability is favoured by African diplomats and international arms control experts, such a reading potentially obscures the weaknesses of security governance and the myriad motivations and means shaping small arms and light weapons acquisition and misuse amongst armed groups and civilians.     

太空安全秩序构建中的体系压力与战略指向

在当前“一超多强”的国际体系中,美国加大太空威慑不仅直接给对手带来清晰的威胁,还导致国际太空安全日益滑向军备竞赛和安全困境。这种由美国追求太空霸权所导致的国际体系层面的变化又反过来塑造着当前太空安全关系,促使其他各国在体系压力下作出包含反威慑在内的复杂应对。除了来自国际体系层面的安全压力,各国的太空安全战略选择还受到太空力量功效、太空法规意识、战略协调、国家互动情势、政治过程等中介变量的影响。这些中介变量不但影响国家对太空安全的认知,而且一段时间内会导致国家间太空安全决策的效率竞争型社会化。不过,随着国际社会过程不断延伸发展,太空力量功效和太空法规意识增强使相关国家安全决策更为谨慎和规范。全球化曲折推进中的战略沟通和政策协调使国家间太空安全互动情势由进化冲突向进化合作转变。在各国保持战略审慎的前提下,太空力量的多元化有助于构建包容、普惠、和谐的新太空安全秩序。太空全球性实质引领的共同利益观念又将助推人类命运共同体的构建。     

NATO,ballistic missile defense and the future of US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe

Abstract

Within the next few years, NATO will need to make a collective decision about the future of US tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Europe. While opinion about the value of these weapons is not as split as conventional wisdom might suggest, and while NATO will remain a nuclear alliance irrespective of this decision, balancing politics and strategy looks likely to be a difficult task. This decision is made far more complex by the determination of NATO officials to link the withdrawal of these weapons to reciprocal reductions in Russian TNW in Europe, and by the possibility of substituting the key strategic and political link they provide with a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. This article shows how we have arrived at this position, highlights the potential benefits to NATO Europe of BMD, and considers the key questions that the Alliance will face in achieving this. Ultimately, this article shows how the future of TNW in Europe is likely to be linked to whether NATO values arms cuts with Russia, or the deployment of missile defenses, as its central priority.     

Weapons Transfers as a Soft Security Issue in Eastern Europe: Legal and Illicit Aspects

The article looks into the problem of weapons transfers in Europe from the perspective of soft security. While the military security dimension of the issue has traditionally received sufficient coverage, weapons transfers also have important implications for soft security of the European states, both in terms of the issues they are linked to, and policy measures designed to control the proliferation of weapons. The soft security aspects of arms transfers are outlined in the introduction, while the subsequent sections look into the trends of both legal and illegal movement of weapons in and from Europe, and policy measures controlling the spread of both major conventional weapons, and light weapons and small arms at the global, regional (European), and national levels. The conclusion assesses the effectiveness of these measures, and implications thereof for European security.     

‘Non-lethal’ weapons and the occupation of Iraq: technology,ethics and law

The occupation of Iraq is a challenging task for the United States (US) military, which is considering resort to options other than lethal force as a possible just response. From the outset, the notion that a weapon can be deemed ‘non-lethal’ is problematic. Some weapons intended to leave their target alive often have lethal consequences and other weapons intended to have lethal effects often do not kill their target. This article explores ethical and legal challenges that arise from the potential use by US forces in Iraq of two classes of so-called ‘non-lethal’ weapons: incapacitating chemical agents and dazzling laser devices. Such challenges are highly relevant to questions about the role of Just War theory in the context of modern warfare. In particular, they beg the question whether the use of non-lethal weapons supports or subverts the jus in bello requirement that war be waged in a discriminate and proportionate fashion.     

Strategic defense without star wars: The case for a defense‐emphasis arms control regime 1

This paper challenges two prevalent assumptions of the mainstream U.S. arms control community: first, that strategic nuclear disarmament? should be regarded as beyond the scope of serious superpower dialogue; second, that strategic defense (especially population defense) is inherently incompatible with the goals of arms control. It does so first by analyzing the events surrounding the Reykjavik summit—the occasion of the first direct negotiations on disarmament between the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union. Next, while identifying grave flaws in the current design of the Strategic Defense Initiative, it will be argued that a defense‐emphasis arms control regime can provide the best long‐term means for addressing the problem of security in the nuclear age.     

俄罗斯安全战略全面转向“以攻为守”

美国推动北约东扩、决意在东欧部署导弹防御系统以及挑起新一轮军备竞赛等一系列举措，使俄罗斯战略安全环境持续恶化。为应对美国和北约咄咄逼人的攻势，俄罗斯将“以攻为守”作为安全战略的核心，加快军事改革以迎接未来挑战。     

U.S.-Russian Strategic Arms Reductions: Nonlinear Challenges,Practical Opportunities

The Obama Administration's desire to push forward with strategic nuclear arms reductions during the President's second term requires the navigation of numerous shoals and reefs. U.S. and Russian negotiators will have to overcome both political and military obstacles to accomplish post-New START reductions in long-range nuclear weapons. For example, efforts to reduce offensive nuclear weapons are complicated by U.S. and NATO plans for missile defenses deployed in Europe and by exigencies in U.S. and Russian domestic politics. In addition, the military-technical aspects of cyber war and nuclear deterrence can no longer be treated, analytically or practically, as isolated compartments. This article considers several aspects of the relationships among possible post-START offensive force reductions, advanced conventional weapons including missile defenses, and emerging cyber capabilities.