防止核扩散的两大难题——以印关核关系为例

全球核不扩散面临着困境，国际社会在目标上的不确定性和体制上的低效性是当今世界核不扩散面临的难题，而各国利益的不一致是其根本原因，它也使这一国际行动的未来充满变数。美国与印度在核关系上的变化以及近年来热议的核合作，也无法回避这些难题。     

美国“海德法案”与美印核合作

美印核合作由来已久,特别是上世纪末以来,印度连续进行核试验而成为事实上有核国家以后,美国通过“海德法案”,继而“核供应国集团”有条件批准美国向印度（至今未加入“核不扩散条约”）提供核技术和核燃料,更为美印两国核合作扫清了法律障碍。美印核合作使国际核管制体制原本存在的许多缺陷得到放大,从而更加削弱了国际核管制体制的功能和相关机构的运转能力,使防止核不扩散陷入困局,给世界持久和平带来了“核阴云”。     

非正式国际机制与全球福利

本文结合精确性程度、合作深度和授权性程度等国际机制的构成要素,对非正式国际机制的有效性进行了讨论。并分析了在集体谈判修订和大国单方面行为引发的事实修正两种情况下,非正式国际机制的修正对全球福利的影响。如果大国在其他方面的利益需求大于在有效地解决全球公共问题方面的利益需求,大国对非正式国际机制发起的事实修正就会损害全球福利。本文以美印核协议对核供应国集团准则的事实修正为案例说明了这一可能情形。     

从印度加入“核供应国集团”问题看美印关系

6月23日＂核供应国集团＂通过禁止向非核不扩散条约国转让核浓缩与再加工技术的＂核转让准则＂,作为非核不扩散条约签约国的印度被挡在了＂核供应国集团＂之外。对此,印度对美国表示强烈不满;美国虽口头重申对印度核合作的相关承诺,但要求印度修改有关核政策的国内法律。美印核合作将陷入僵局,其后续问题不仅影响双方的核合作关系,甚至成为影响美印双边关系的新的复杂因素。     

朝鲜与核不扩散机制关系探析

为了防止核毁灭和核扩散的威胁，国际社会建立了一整套核不扩散机制，其中NFT和IAEA是最重要的组成部分。朝鲜与核不扩散机制的关系经历了一个排斥、参与和退出的过程，而这个过程始终是与朝鲜的自身安全紧密相连的。朝鲜与核不扩散机制的前景取决于美国的选择和国际社会的反应。美国面临着三种选择：和平对话、军事打击、封锁和经济制裁，其中和平对话是解决朝鲜核问题的主要途径，可以使朝鲜重新回到核不扩散机制中来，军事打击、封锁和经济制裁只会使朝鲜与核不扩散关系愈来愈疏远。     

印度在国际核不扩散问题上的立场与政策选择

印度在国际核不扩散问题的立场与政策选择是印度核外交重要组成部分，它不仅仅涉及印度的国家利益以及印度与其他国家关系，它还牵涉到整个国际核秩序以及国际核机制运作。1998年公开核试验后，印度对待国际核不扩散问题的立场与政策历经一些调整。印度对一些国际军控条约的强硬反对立场有所缓和。印度也试图在某种程度与现有国际核机制达成暂时和解。不过，由于各种原因印度在核不扩散问题上与其他多数有核国家依然没有一致的认同，印度在是否应该承担有关防核扩散条约的义务，并承认现行的国际核机制等问题上犹豫踌躇。     

影响印度未来核身份的不确定因素——对印美民用核协议的追踪

印度与美国开展全面民用核合作已成定局,美国国会的最后批准已仅是时间问题。但美国国会围绕该协议的辩论以及若干相关事态的发展,将对核协议的未来实施过程和国际核不扩散机制的走向产生重大影响。美国国会的辩论既表明美国在固守国际核不扩散机制和美国及全球安全利益方面的复杂考量,同时也注定印美在该领域的合作前景不会一帆风顺。对印度而言,该协议带来的利益和风险同时存在,在获取国际先进核技术的同时确保自身的核军备计划不受损害将是一个严峻的挑战。     

核不扩散机制面临危机的根由所在

国际核不扩散机制面临严重挑战和危机,其根本原因在于美国对核不扩散机制采取利己主义做法:一方面,该机制的相关条约在拥有世界上最大核武库的美国未能得到全面签署和履行;另一方面,美国又不断利用核不扩散机制牵制其他国家,维护美在世界各地的主导权。     

国际核不扩散体制的困境与朝核问题

核不扩散机制正面临崩溃局面的原因,除核不扩散机制自身存在未能和国际安全机制有机结合的严重缺陷外,强权政治和霸权主义肆意践踏和推行双重标准为害至巨,而核不扩散机制未顾及地缘政治的复杂性,也在一定程度上失去公正性。朝核问题的演变表明,半岛安全局势早已超出朝核问题本身的意义,正是美国的制裁、威胁和以推动核不扩散谋取战略优势的政策取向迫使朝鲜从主张半岛无核化到正式拥核,也是美国霸权的言而无信导致六方会谈一次又一次陷入僵局。强权政治是催生核扩散的土壤,只有构筑全球安全环境,才是解决核不扩散问题的根本出路。     

联合阵线与美国军事干涉

作为国际体系中的唯一超级大国,美国是冷战后海外用兵最为频繁、进行军事干涉行动次数最多的国家。研究者们通常认为,美国的军事干涉在决策和实施上具有很强的单边主义色彩,其突出特征是动辄使用或威胁使用武力,在决定使用武力时一意孤行,时常将自身意志凌驾于联合国和国际法之上。通过考察冷战后美国在伊拉克战争、阿富汗战争、利比亚战争等重大军事干涉行动中的选择可以发现,尽管美国在使用武力的决策上较少受到国际社会的有效约束,但它在军事干涉行动中既不是纯粹依靠自身力量单干,也不是依靠其缔造的多边或双边军事同盟,而是经常性地采取联合阵线的方式执行军事打击和战后维稳行动。联合阵线的目标确定性及手段灵活性为美国主导军事干涉行动提供了便利,而规避集体行动的困境、让伙伴承担军事行动的负担、为干涉行动寻找合法性以及减少美国的投入和损失等考量,也使得美国具有招募多国参与其军事行动的强烈动机。由于当前国际体系结构的制约,不少国家倾向于加入美国的军事干涉联合阵线,以便在美国主导的等级体系中获取安全保障和经济利益。     

One Belt One Road,New Diplomacy and Public Diplomacy

正President Xi Jinping put forward the term "Silk Road Economic Belt" on September 7th,2013 in Kazakhstan when he proposed in his speech "to forge closer economic ties,deepen cooperation and expand development space in the Eurasian region,we should take an innovative approach and jointly     

防止海上事件与中美海上军事互信机制建设(英文)

This paper seeks to analyze the deficiencies, underlying flaws, and prospects of the Sino-US military maritime safety consultation mechanism, based on maritime incident prevention theories and typical cases. It also on also offers suggestions on the future development of the Sino-US maritime offers maritime confidence-building mechanism.     

乌克兰政局突变原因及影响(英文)

As a geopolitical pivot in the Eurasian grand chess game, Ukraine has As has been vacillating between the West and East, eking out a living amid fierce contest between Europe and the US as one side and Russia as the opposite. The impact of the geopolitical rivalry on Ukrainian domestic politics, The politics,coupled by economic, social and ethnic factors, resulted in the sudden coupled sudden change in the Ukrainian political situation.     

TTCSP Director James G. McGann Visits CIIS

正On October 27,2014,James G.McGann,director of University of Pennsylvania's Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program(TTCSP),paid a visit to the China Institute of International Studies and delivered a speech titled"The Trend of Global Development and Its Influences on China's Think Tanks".CIIS Vice-President Ruan Zongze chaired     

重新认识战略机遇期(英文)

The Eighteenth Party Congress pointed out that China is still in an The an important period of strategic opportunity. Many people cast doubt on important on how to perceive and grasp the future period of strategic opportunity, and there has been a significant increase in controversial issues that need to be discussed. The purpose and focus of this article is to discuss these questions.     

Speech by President Yan Junqi at the 11~(th) Execu tive Council Meeting of CAFIU (Excerpt)

正The meeting of the 11th Executive Council of CAFIU is convened successfully today.We have reviewed the achievements of the 10thExecutive Council,approved the amended Constitution and elected the new leadership.It is a great honor for me to serve as the President of CAFIU.Therefore,I would like to express my thanks for the trust given by all Council members and the colleagues present     

My Thirty-year Friendship with China

正China and My Family History In a gathering of friends who are all devoted to advancing Japan-China friendship,I told a story about my childhood."I went to China for the first time in 1943…"As soon as I uttered those words,others present looked quite surprised and thought I must have been wrong.Actually I wasn’t wrong.I was just 2 or 3 years old when I first came to China,so I was too young to remember everything.     

Promoting People-to-people Exchanges and Building a Favorable Atmosphere——Sidelights on CAFIU Delegation's Visit to Japan and the Philippines

正At the invitation of Japan NPO "the World" and Philippine Center of Young Leaders in Governance(PCYL),a 6-member CAFIU delegation headed by Secretary-General Ni Jian paid a friendly visit to Japan and the Philippines from November 1 to November 8.During the visit,the delegation had extensive contacts and exchanges with politicians,NGOs and ordinary     

China-Europe Cooperation Embraces New Development Opportunities

正Located in the ends of Eurasian Continent,China and Europe have rather far distance but timehonored relationship.China was a heated topic among enlightenment thinkers in the 18thcentury,let alone in the age of Marco Polo.Afterwards,China’s civil service system became the model pursued by European countries,which made Europe step onto the road of modernization.     

Strategic Significance of the 21~(st) Century Maritime Silk Road and Tactics in its Development

正In a speech delivered at the Indonesian Parliament in October 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping said:"we should further strengthen our maritime partnerships and jointly build the 21st century Maritime Silk Road",articulating China’s willingness to beef up maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries.The Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on