Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion Estimation

The comparative study of subnational units is on the rise. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MrP) has become the standard method for estimating subnational public opinion. Unfortunately, MrP comes with stringent data demands. As a consequence, scholars cannot apply MrP in countries without detailed census data, and when such data are available, the modeling is restricted to a few variables. This article introduces multilevel regression with synthetic poststratification (MrsP), which relaxes the data requirement of MrP to marginal distributions, substantially increases the prediction precision of the method, and extends its use to countries without census data. The findings of Monte Carlo, U.S., and Swiss analyses show that, using the same predictors, MrsP usually performs in standard applications as well as the currently used standard approach, and it is superior when additional predictors are modeled. The better performance and the more straightforward implementation promise that MrsP will further stimulate subnational research.     

“Un nodo avviluppato”. Rossini’s La Cenerentola as a prototype of multimodal resemiotisation

ABSTRACT

Since its early beginnings in Italy in the sixteenth century, opera has always been a multimodal text, integrating verbal, musical, and stage resources. Verbal resources can be unpacked in lyric verse for vocal pieces in closed form, narrative verse or prose for recitative, and stage directions; musical resources include instrumental and vocal music, whereas stage resources incorporate stage design, singers’ and dancers’ kinesics, and set and costume arrangements. However, opera has been rarely studied in multimodal terms, as it has been mainly explored from musicological standpoints, hence prioritising music and barely taking into account the interplay of other resources. As a case study, epitomising the Golden Age of opera, La Cenerentola by Rossini has been selected, as it exemplifies how the theatrical and compositional conventions of the genre work concurrently with its metatextual components. Stage adaptations will be also analysed in two film operas, that is, Jean-Pierre Ponnelle’s La Cenerentola (Germany, 1981) and Carlo Verdone’s Cenerentola, Una favola in diretta (Italy, 2014). Opera will be interpreted as a prototype of multi-level resemiotisation, also in a critical light, as the libretto is resemiotised (1) as a musical composition; (2) as a mise-en-scène, and (3) as a film opera.     

Blow Flies from Forest Fragments Embedded in Different Land Uses: Implications for Selecting Indicators in Forensic Entomology

Given the general expectation that forest loss can alter biodiversity patterns, we hypothesize that blow fly species abundances differ in a gradient of native vegetation cover. This study was conducted in 17 fragments across different landscapes in central Brazil. Different land cover type proportions were used to represent landscape structure. In total, 2334 specimens of nine species of Calliphoridae were collected. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensionality and multicollinearity of the landscape data. The first component explained 70%, and it represented a gradient of forest‐pasture land uses. Alien species showed a wide distribution in different fragments with no clear relationship between the abundance values and the scores of PCA axes, whereas native species occurred only in areas with a predominance of forest cover. Our study revealed that certain native species may be sensitive to forest loss at the landscape scale, and they represent a bioindicator in forensic entomology.     

Death related to aortic coarctation in a young female during sexual intercourse

Coarctation of the aorta (CA) is diagnosed mainly in pediatric patients, and therapy is conservative if asymptomatic, but surgical treatment is required if advanced arterial hypertension is present. Moderate to severe forms contraindicate any type of physical activity requiring cardiac effort. Here, we describe the first documented death of an apparently healthy 35-year-old woman because of cardiac tamponade by rupture of an aortic aneurysm, possibly related to congenital CA, prolonged use of oxymetazoline hydrochloride, and physical and/or emotional stress during sexual activity. Our patient was asymptomatic for classical CA symptoms. The patient's breathing difficulties likely in hindsight were due not so much to nasal congestion, but rather to an ineffective oxygenation of the blood from the abnormal heart. In an attempt to treat the "nasal disease," the patient ingested chronic and excessive doses of decongestants, aggravating her fatal disease. The danger of inhaling large doses of nasal decongestants without an appropriate medical indication is highlighted here.     

A case of suicidal suffocation simulating homicide

This case concerns an unusual suicidal plastic bag suffocation. An elderly white man was found dead and partially disrobed in his apartment lying supine on a sofa with a plastic bag closed by a rope over the head and the upper and lower extremities tightly tied with two other ropes, the end of both arranged into slipknots (self-rescue mechanism). Police investigations found no pornography in the apartment, and circumstantial data alleged no psychiatric disorders or suicidal intentions. The autopsy excluded signs of struggle and sexual intercourse as well as any type of injury or physical illness. Chemical analyses on the peripheral blood excluded acute drugs and/or alcohol intoxication. A differential diagnosis of the manner of death was performed, including scenarios of accidental autoerotic asphyxiation, homicide during either sexual activity or ritualistic, elderly suicide. The collected data most strongly supported the hypothesis of a suicidal asphyxiation simulating homicide to devolve a life insurance to the victim's sons because of economic difficulties.     

Identification of two cannabimimetic compounds WIN48098 and AM679 in illegal products

Two synthetic cannabinoids have been identified, during a survey, as new adulterants; they might have been intended to be used as ingredients for smart drugs. The characterization of these compounds has been made by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS), Orbitrap high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), leading to the identification of WIN48098, a compound disclosed as a new adulterant in herbal and powder products, and AM679, identified in Italy for the first time.Taking into account the high number of synthetic cannabinoids seized during the last year in Italy, how quickly they appear on the illegal market and the rapidity required for analytical results, a method was developed for the simultaneous quantitation of several synthetic cannabinoids, using gas chromatography–flame ionization detection (GC–FID).     

Statutory discretion and procedural control of the European commission's executive functions

By delegating powers and designing administrative procedures, ministers of the Council, the legislators of the European Union, shape the boundaries of the EU administration. This article uses theories of executive politics to test the factors that affect the degree of statutory discretion delegated by the Council to the Commission in secondary legislation. It suggests that discretion increases with (1) the uncertainty facing legislators, (2) the convergence of preferences between the Commission and the pivotal legislator, (3) the use of qualified majority, and (4) policies that require limited involvement of national administrations. It also tests whether discretion is positively correlated with the stringency of procedural control. The article employs regression analysis and co‐graduation tests on a sample of legislation and concludes that uncertainty, policy types and informal decision rules are statistically and substantively relevant in explaining discretion. Discretion is also significantly correlated with the stringency of control.     

Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in the analysis of political competition?

This presidential address assesses the crisis of the Downsian model of political competition in light of the mounting evidence on policy divergence and evaluates the possibility that the new theories of politicians’ quality and political selection provide an alternative theoretical conceptualization of political competition. Based on a critical review of the literature and on the author’s works on content analysis of policy speeches, income redistribution, politicians’ quality, and political legislation cycles, this address concludes that multidimensional Downsian models of political competition are adequate to explain policy divergence and points out the serious theoretical and empirical problems that models of political selection have to solve.     

New forms of industrial policy in the age of regulation: A comparison of electricity and telecommunications in Italy and Spain

Relying on insights from the comparative capitalism debate, this article compares the industrial policy strategies implemented by the Italian and Spanish governments to favor the internationalization of domestic electricity and telecommunications incumbents. It is shown how the cross‐sectoral and cross‐country variation in the outcome of their industrial policy efforts—that is, successful or unsuccessful internationalization—is explained by the reciprocal power relationship between governments and domestic large shareholders (“blockholders”). Successful internationalization is conditional on the availability of two power resources the government can use to influence blockholders' behavior: ownership power and regulatory power. When these resources were available, governments were able to impose a stable ownership structure on national champions, leading to successful internationalization. When they were not available, ownership instability led to failure. The findings presented here contribute to the debate on new forms of state involvement in the economy in the neoliberal era.