Organised crime threat assessments: a critical review

Since the beginning of the 21st century, several national and international government agencies have initiated organised crime threat assessments. Additionally, a few scholars have published methods to assess the risks and threats of organised crime. These governmental bodies and scholars claim that their reports and methods can demonstrate that certain forms of organised crime are more threatening than others and thus help policy-makers set strategic priorities. In this article I discuss these claims by examining the reliability and validity of the operational definitions of the key concepts used, such as organised crime, threat and risk. This examination reveals that most reports and methods provide insufficient detail—and sometimes even no details at all—to guarantee the reliability and validity of their operational definitions. The search for validity is made particularly difficult by the ambiguity surrounding the concepts of organised crime, threat and risk, while the concept of cost is less problematic. Moreover, establishing what constitutes a threat is at its core a normative decision that cannot be left to intelligence analysts or scientists alone. The challenge ahead lies in acknowledging the normative framework of organised crime threat assessments and within that framework maximising the reliability and validity of the operational definitions of key concepts and related measuring instruments.     

The Economic Leverage of International Organizations in Interstate Disputes

Addressing a long-standing debate in international relations scholarship, this study shows that international governmental organizations (IGOs) with high economic leverage over their member states, such as some development banks, substantially lower the risk that political disputes experience the use of military force. Empirical tests covering cases of disputatious claims and international crises since 1946 make use of a new classification of IGOs that have economic leverage and use it toward increasing states’ cost of using force in disputes. When pairs of states are subject to the economic leverage of IGOs, they are substantially less likely to use force. For the understanding and practice of interstate dispute resolution and international conflict more generally, the study suggests a specific linkage between institutionalized economic interdependence and conflict escalation.     

Policy Reform and the Problem of Private Investment: Evidence from the Power Sector

Development economists frequently emphasize the importance of good infrastructure for economic growth. Can governments attract private capital in infrastructural investments through policy reform? We address this question by showing that, in the case of electricity generation, a simple legislation enabling independent power production increases private investment in electricity generation by more than an order of magnitude. Contrary to the conventional wisdom on the importance of constraints on executive power for credible commitment, we find that such constraints neither draw private capital nor condition the effectiveness of policy reform. We also find that both domestic and foreign investment increase with IPP reform. Evidence for these claims comes from an instrumental variable analysis of power sector reforms and private electricity generation in all developing countries for the years 1982 to 2008. Simple and politically uncontroversial policies can generate positive results in developing countries.     

“Glory to Breivik!”: The Russian Far Right and the 2011 Norway Attacks

This article documents Anders Behring Breivik's reception on the Russian far Right, with a comparative view to Western Europe. On July 22, 2011, Breivik carried out two terrorist attacks in Norway, killing 77 people. Based on a variety of open sources, the article finds that Breivik has received much more open support in Russia than in Western Europe. I suggest there are three main reasons why Russia stands out. First, a weaker social stigma attached to Right-Wing extremism reduces the cost of publicly embracing Right-Wing terrorists. Second, higher levels of violence in Russian society increase desensitization and violence acceptance. Third, the embrace of Breivik fits into a vibrant tradition of iconizing Right-Wing militants on the Russian far Right. The article highlights Russia as a hotspot of Right-Wing extremist activism in Europe. It also provides insights that may prove useful in future comparative research on cross-national variation in Right-Wing violence and terrorism.     

Wachsende Lohnungleichheit in Deutschland

Based on the thesis of growing overall inequality in the German society, this paper discusses changes in the inequality of wages for the period between 1998 and 2006. Our objective is to identify differences in real wage growth for various occupational classes. The theoretical foundation of the article is based on economic as well as sociological concepts. With regard to recent findings of labor economists, one could postulate that market forces driven by technological changes and the corresponding growth in the relative demand for highly-skilled labor have led to an increase in wage inequality (skill-biased technological change, SBTC). In contrast, a structural theory approach, based on the work of Aage B. Sørensen, would argue that increasing wage inequality is due to changes in the extent to which certain labor market groups are able to generate rents. For the empirical analysis, data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and data from the BIBB/IAB-Survey are used. Our results show that people in lower occupational classes belong to the losers of the general income dynamics in Germany between 1998 and 2006. Moreover, the inclusion of a broad variety of characteristics of the occupational position reveals that the growth of wage inequality in Germany can be explained by skill-biased technological changes, but also by changes in rent generating processes.     

Eisenhower, the British and the security of Hong Kong, 1953-60

This article is an examination of Hong Kong's importance within British-American security arrangements in the Far East during the presidency of Dwight D. Eisenhower. Archival evidence indicates that the Eisenhower Administration accepted a greater deal of commitment to the defence of Hong Kong during the 1950s — a period of significant hostility between the United States and the People's Republic of China. To understand this policy evolution in the broader context, this study evaluates the differences in British and American attitudes towards China during the 1950s and the effect of this on US policy towards Hong Kong.     

Publics and biobanks in China and Europe: a comparative perspective

We compare public perceptions of biobanks in China and in Europe, reporting similarities and differences in how publics in Europe and China view key issues in the realm of biobank research. Despite many differences in perception, the similarity in the perception of biobanks in China and in Europe is striking. Our research finds that Chinese with lower education levels are less concerned about privacy, while those with higher education levels have preferences in privacy protection that are similar to those in Europe. Transnational research is perceived positively in both regions, but specific historical experiences shape how people approach these issues. While Chinese publics focus on certain effects of international research on the Chinese state, Europeans are mainly concerned about data security and impacts on research. The study is based on 66 focus groups conducted in China (6) and Europe (60), with approximately 700 participants.