VAAs as sources of volatility and fragmentation: self-selection effects and genuine effects

ABSTRACT

Recent studies show that using Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) affects party preferences of voters, and hence leads to party switching. Party switching is a necessary but insufficient condition for volatility (a net switch of voters to other parties) and fragmentation (more parties gaining seats) at the aggregate level of electoral constituencies. The research question addressed here is whether the availability of VAAs in electoral constituencies weakens or strengthens trends towards greater volatility and fragmentation as observed in western democracies in the last decades. The data come from 380 Dutch municipalities during the 2014 Dutch municipal council elections. In 133 of them a VAA was available. Using a moderated mediation model that controls for the municipal self-selection of a VAA, we find that a VAA by itself leads to higher levels of volatility and fragmentation. However, VAA availability has a dampening effect in municipal constituencies with characteristics (e.g. population size, ethnic diversity, young average age) that would otherwise make them more susceptible and prone to volatility and fragmentation.     

Fostering agency and wellbeing in women: an evaluation of the IMAGINE Initiative

There is growing evidence that fostering individual agency for women is important for effective economic development and well-being. This article assesses the outcomes of the IMAGINE Initiative in Kenya, a programme intended to empower individuals through a four-day interactive workshop. Routine de-identified programme data from 213 individuals who applied to participate were used. Data included socio-demographic measures, psychometric scales, and interviews of changes in education, health, economics, and relationships. Programmatic data showed significant changes in the level of intrinsic motivation and agency for those who underwent the training and as well as substantial behavioural changes in core areas of their lives.     

The nature, origin and impact of legally binding consequences: the case of the climate regime

The Marrakesh Accords provide a detailed compliance system for the Kyoto Protocol. An innovative feature of this system is an Enforcement Branch authorized to apply punitive measures or “consequences” in the second commitment period to Annex I Parties that have been found to be in non-compliance in the first commitment period. However, even after the latest Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), COP-11, and the first COP serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, COP/MOP-1, it is not yet clear whether these consequences will be legally binding. The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, we examine the legal nature of the punitive consequences embedded in the Marrakesh Accords. Second, we discuss potential motives for making these consequences legally binding. We point out that one such motive is that their implementation requires cooperation by the Party that is in non-compliance. In this regard, Kyotoȁ9s compliance system differs from other international compliance systems equipped with punitive consequences, such as those of the WTO and the UN. Finally, we consider whether making the punitive consequences legally binding is likely to make a difference. The conclusion, which should be of interest to both academic researchers and the policy community, is that the legal status of the consequences is likely to have only a modest effect on compliance levels. A country that deliberately fails to abide by other legally binding commitments under the Kyoto Protocol is also likely to resist the application of punitive consequences, regardless of whether these consequences are made legally binding or not.     

The role of personnel migration in the introduction of innovations

The study examined the extent of transfer of aerospace management techniques that accompanied the movement of personnel. Sixty individuals who were formerly employed in aerospace were questioned regarding the management techniques they had introduced into their current workplace. In some instances, the information given by the respondent was validated by nonaerospace colleagues. The results clearly demonstrated that the movement of personnel may act as a mechanism for transfer. For all respondents, the mean number of techniques introduced was greater than five. In 13 cases, 100 per cent of the aerospace management techniques currently used were introduced by the respondent; in 15 cases, at least 50 per cent currently in use were introduced by the respondent. The process of introduction was also examined. The managers reported using several steps to encourage transfer including familiarization with the environment, introduction of new goals, adaptation of the technique, persuasion, coercion, and the hiring of co-workers with similar attitudes. The results also indicated that successful innovators were self-confident, had a detailed knowledge of the innovation, were convinced of its value, and were frequently in positions of authority. Finally, results indicated that the introduction was more likely to be adopted in smaller and/or newer institutions, where “discipline” and a team concept existed in management, and when superiors were supportive. Recommendations were made for future research.