Searching for political business cycles in Germany

One reslt of the revitalised literature on political business cycles is that there are signs in German data that elections and ideology have an impact. However, using monthly data for the period 1950-1989, and standard methods of time series analysis, we reject both the Nordhaus hypothesis of opportunistic cycles and the partisan approaches by Hibbs ans Alesina. We show that some results are sensitive to the assumption of stationarity. There are signs of policy cycles in M1. It is hard, though, to bring this in line with the Rogoff hypothesis of rational opportunistic cycles because of the German institutional setting.     

Molecular characterization and Austrian Caucasian population data of the multi-copy Y-chromosomal STR DYS464

DYS464 is a multi-copy STR system with four positions on the Y-chromosome (DYS464a, b, c, and d) which was recently identified and characterized [Forensic Sci. Int. 130 (2002) 97]. The aims of our study were to perform a population study, to estimate the mutation rate and an extensive sequence analysis in order to confirm the nomenclature. Fourteen different alleles were found in an Austrian population sample with an allele length varying from 9 to 19 repeats. All alleles were cloned and sequenced. Alleles 9-19 showed the general repeat structure (CCTT)n...(CCTT)2...(CCTT)3...(CCTT)4...(CCTT)2...(CCTT)2. The nomenclature is based on the number of repeated units of the variable (CCTT)n-stretch only. In 13% of the samples intermediate alleles, namely 14.3A, 14.3B and 15.3 were detected. In these alleles the variable repeat block is interrupted by a CTT motif (14.3A: (CCTT)3CTT(CCTT)11; 14.3B and 15.3: (CCTT)7CTT(CCTT)7/8). A comparison with GenBank entries revealed the existence of a length variant due to a deletion of one cytosine in the 5' flanking region of the first repeat block. We designed an alternative forward primer to circumvent possible ambiguities in the allele designation. A total of 54 different genotypes were identified in 135 men corresponding to a discrimination capacity (DC) of 40% and a gene diversity (GD) of 0.97. These values are much higher than those of other Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs). DYS464 has the same haplotype diversity (HD) as the combination of the five Y-STR loci with the lowest gene diversities of the Y-STR core set. On the other hand, a combination of the three most diverse loci (DYS464, DYS385 and DYS390) has the same capacity to distinguish between paternal lineages than the complete minimal haplotype (minHT) consisting of eight Y-STR loci. In our population sample the addition of DYS464 to the minHT increases the number of different haplotypes from 110 to 122. The mutation-rate estimate based on the 70 meioses analyzed amounts to 2.86 x 10(-2) (95% confidence interval 3.5 x 10(-3) to 9.95 x 10(-2)). This value is approximately 10 times higher than the average mutation-rate estimate for Y-STRs.     

Competency to stand trial: a conceptual model for its proper assessment

The assessment of competency to stand trial is frequently fraught with conceptual confusion resulting from a failure to properly apply the data of the clinical examination to the relevant legal criteria. A basic question scheme that encompasses (1) the defendant's psychiatric status, (2) the effects of that status on his functioning, and (3) his apparent ability to participate in legal proceedings, is introduced to clarify the evaluation of fitness to stand trial. The way in which combinations of answers to three "basic questions" generate a scheme that clarifies the difficulties encountered in most competency evaluations is shown. Eight paradigm cases are generated. Five of these (competence, incompetence, mentally ill but competent, malingering, and impaired but competent) are frequently straightforward. However, the three possibilities in which a defendant meets criteria entailed by two of the three questions are inherently subject to controversy. These situations (circumscribed psychosis related to the charges, malingering in the context of mental illness, and functional deficits in the context of minor mental illness) are discussed in detail and illustrated with case material.     

Health insurance coverage of the unemployed: COBRA and the potential effects of Kassebaum-Kennedy.

We use the April 1993 Current Population Survey to examine the health insurance coverage decisions of the unemployed and to simulate the potential effects of the new Kassebaum-Kennedy legislation. After controlling for demographic characteristics, COBRA eligibility raises the probability of health insurance coverage by 0.095, while eligibility for spouse employer insurance increases the likelihood of coverage by 0.318, and eligibility for both increases the likelihood of coverage by 0.341. In our simulations, we find that had Kassebaum-Kennedy been in effect in April 1993, 9.0 percent of the unemployed would be eligible to take up coverage, and the coverage rate of the unemployed would have been increased by 0.85 percent to 1.5 percent from 41.6 percent. Our estimates of the effect of Kassebaum-Kennedy on health insurance coverage are much lower than those reported by the Government Accounting Office prior to the passage of the legislation.     

The compleat advocate

Recognizing and analyzing a public policy problem is an important first step in impacting on its resolution. However, the more crucial and subtle steps are the subsequent ones of selection of means, implementation, evaluation and termination addressing the multi-phased policy decision process. The translation of knowledge created during the estimation phase of possible policy alternatives is a not very well appreciated activity, and this article sheds clear light on the essentials of how one might go about making this translation. Considered are some practical, hard-won lessons learned about becoming and being a public policy advocate. While the specific focus is on children's legislation, the principles invoked have more widespread applicability.     

Redefining Corporate Social Responsibility in an Era of Globalization and Regulatory Hardening

Globalization and the growth of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have been accompanied by an increasing call for corporations to take responsibility for their environmental and social impacts, and for greater corporate disclosure and transparency with regard to nonfinancial risks (collectively known as corporate social responsibility or CSR). At the same time, governments have increasingly turned to mandatory obligations for formerly voluntary CSR engagement, a trend we call the legalization of CSR. This article analyzes the “hardening” and legalization of CSR, and considers what this process tells us about norms and assumptions regarding the social responsibility of firms in the United States and around the world. Through our analysis of corporate trends, regulations, and case law from the United States, European Union, China, and India, we argue that the process of legalization and redefinition of CSR through a shareholder primacy lens may, troublingly, undermine the very notion of CSR. In the face of these trends, this article concludes with a redefinition of CSR that includes an express commitment to corporations’ social and ethical responsibility to society.     

Public Sector Labour Relations in Western Australia – An Overview

The election of a LiberalNational Coalition government in 1993 heralded a period of significant and sustained change in Western Australian public sector labour relations. As legislator, the Coalition government embarked upon a program to decentralise and deregulate the Western Australian industrial relations system; as an employer, the government has had to respond to the economic imperatives which have faced most employers in recent years. The result has been a period of major change in the public sector – employment levels have declined as services have been privatised or contracted out; the proportion of non-permanent and part-time employees has risen significantly. Individual workplace agreements have been introduced; individualised performance-related management and reward systems have increased; and the scope for union involvement has diminished, as has the level and density of union membership. The experience of the public sector therefore reflects many of the workplace changes that are also found in the private sector. It also brings the government's industrial relations policies into sharper focus.     

Blunders and Blame: How Armed Non-State Actors React to Their Mistakes

Armed non-state actors make mistakes. Why this phenomenon occurs, and how organizations respond to their blunders, has remained understudied. This article draws on interdisciplinary research to examine sources of errors, and offers a public sensitivity argument to explain why groups claim and even apologize for their blunders. The quantitative analysis finds that all armed groups, regardless of ideology and organizational structure, are willing to apologize when there are unintended high casualty rates. A detailed analysis of three Provisional Irish Republican Army incidents reveals that public opinion is sensitive to the nature of the victims, and shows how public condemnation can impact organizational behavior.