A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model

Time series of event counts are common in political scienceand other social science applications. Presently, there arefew satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in suchdata and accounting for the dynamic processes in event countsregression. We address this issue by building on earlier workfor persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weightedmoving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journalof Political Science 44(4):823–843, 2000). We developan alternative model for stationary mean reverting data, thePoisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model. Issuesof identification and model selection are also considered. Wethen evaluate the properties of this model and present bothMonte Carlo evidence and applications to illustrate.     

The Department Secretaries:A Profile of a Changing Profession

The position of departmental secretaries has been under debate. There are claims they have been politicised; they have been placed on term appointments. This article examines the careers of departmental secretaries for the last 50 years. It illustrates the changes in their length of tenure, age of departure, mobility and qualifications. The recent profile shows the need for debate about the position and the future of departmental secretaries.     

Mixed electoral systems in Britain and the Jenkins Commission on electoral reform

Mixed electoral systems seek to combine elements from different voting methods so as to maximise the numbers of individually accountable constituency MPs, while achieving more proportional outcomes in terms of parties' representation. This paper looks in detail at two kinds of mixed systems: variants of the Additional Member System; and AV Plus (or SV Plus). We examine how they would have operated in British conditions during the 1990s—how ballot papers would be structured, how voters respond to them and what electoral outcomes would have resulted. Both approaches offer good prospects for achieving a consensus amongst electoral reformers on an alternative to first-past-the-post elections. We also show how the Jenkins Commission's proposals can be located within the broader development of 'British AMS' by the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. In addition, we quantify the main impacts of the policy choices which the Commission made in designing the proposed system to be submitted to a referendum. The British case will be a key one for the wider debate in political science about the endogenisation of voting system changes within party systems.     

Adolescent discipline: Different family members' perception

Adolescence is perhaps the most difficult period of child rearing for parents. This study attempted to identify disciplinary techniques used by parents as perceived by mothers, fathers, and their adolescent children. Results indicated several significant areas of intrafamilial disagreement in regard to disciplinary techniques utilized, although all subjects tended to agree that some form of verbal reasoning was the primary disciplinary technique utilized with these adolescents.This study was funded, in part, by the Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center (H-644) and the School of Home Economics, The University of Georgia.Received his Ph.D. in child and family studies from the University of Tennessee. Current interests include adolescent development, family influences on sex-role development, and dual-work families.Received her Ph.D. in sociology from Iowa State University. Major interests include family research methodology, assessment of family power, and marital dissolution.Received her Ph.D. in educational psychology from the University of Texas. Current research interests include parenting, sex roles, and socialization across the life-span.     

Adolescents and television

This study was divided into two parts. The first part consisted of an investigation of the frequency of television viewing among a sample of 2302 15-year-olds in 12 comprehensive schools. Subjects were divided into two groups, high and low frequency viewers, according to their own estimate of viewing time. The general picture which emerged (with some overlap of scores) was that high frequency viewers tended to be more neurotic and introverted; less intelligent; had less favorable attitudes to school; were less likely to think sport was important; were more likely to be bored in their leisure time; and possessed different social attitudes than low frequency viewers. The second part of the study investigated the program preferences of a subsample of over 900 subjects drawn from the main study. Little difference was found in the program preferences of high and low frequency viewers, but clear differences of preference were found between the sexes.Received his Ph.D. from the University of Aberdeen. Main research interests include social factors influencing education, adolescence, sports psychology, community education, and social psychology.Received her M.Ed. from the University of Aberdeen. Main research interests include community education and television.     

Subjective Invulnerability,Optimism Bias and Adjustment in Emerging Adulthood

The relationship between subjective invulnerability and optimism bias in risk appraisal, and their comparative association with indices of risk activity, substance use and college adjustment problems was assessed in a sample of 350 (M _age = 20.17; 73% female; 93% White/European American) emerging adults. Subjective invulnerability was measured with the newly devised adolescent invulnerability scale (AIS). Optimism bias in decision-making was assessed with a standard comparative-conditional risk appraisal task. Results showed that the danger- and psychological invulnerability subscales of the AIS demonstrated strong internal consistency and evidence of predictive validity. Subjective invulnerability and optimism bias were also shown to be empirically distinct constructs with differential ability to predict risk and adjustment. Danger invulnerability and psychological invulnerability were more pervasively associated with risk behavior than was optimism bias; and psychological invulnerability counter-indicated depression, self-esteem and interpersonal problems. Results support recent claims regarding the “two faces” of adolescent invulnerability. Implications for future research are drawn.     

Chrik Poortman: A World Bank Professional

Chrik Poortman, an international civil servant, worked for the World Bank for more than three decades. This profile uses his career and experiences to illustrate the functions and roles played by World Bank staff at each level of its "flat" hierarchy and the capacities needed to face challenges that are unique to their ilk. Each section explores a different range of functions, including working as a country director, working as a vice president, and working as a member of the World Bank's senior management team.     

The Relation of Antisocial Behavior Patterns and Changes in Internalizing Symptoms for a Sample of Inner-city Youth: Comorbidity within a Developmental Framework

Research examining the relationship between internalizing symptoms and antisocial behaviors has generally been cross-sectional in design. Thus, although extant data have substantiated a strong correlation between internalizing symptoms and antisocial behaviors, few studies have focused on describing the nature of the co-occurrence over time. This study examined the relation between growth in internalizing symptoms and longitudinal patterns of antisocial behavior in a sample of 283 inner-city males and their caregivers assessed as part of a longitudinal developmental risk study. Participants were assessed annually in four waves. Non-offenders and escalating offenders had lower levels of internalizing problems at wave 1 than did chronic minor and serious-chronic-violent offenders. Results revealed a developmental trend of decreasing internalizing problems across study years for most participants, as would be expected, with adolescents participating in serious, chronic, and violent patterns of antisocial behavior displaying greater internalizing problems than those participating in stable patterns of less serious or no antisocial behavior. Further, when there was escalation of seriousness and frequency of antisocial behavior, there also was increased internalizing problems relative to non-escalating juveniles. Results are discussed in the context of developmental psychopathology.