Sizing the government

Is there such a thing as an optimal government size? We investigate the so-called Armey curve, which claims an inverted U-shaped relationship between government size and economic performance, using non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The DEA scores are linked to control variables, such as initial per capita income, openness, population density, urbanization, country size and family size. For 23 OECD-countries we estimate the country specific efficiency scores, which reveal the extent to which a country uses excess public resources to achieve the observed growth rate of GDP.     

Predictive Policing as a New Tool for Law Enforcement? Recent Developments and Challenges

Decision-making processes are increasingly based on intelligence gained from ‘big data’, i.e., extensive but complex datasets. This evolution of analyzing complex data using methods aimed at prediction is also emerging within the field of quantitative criminology. In the context of crime analysis, the large amount of crime data available can be considered an example of big data, which could inform us about current and upcoming crime trends and patterns. A recent development in the analysis of this kind of data is predictive policing, which uses advanced statistical methods to make the most of these data to gain useable new insights and information, allowing police services to predict and anticipate future crime events. This article presents the results of a literature review, supplemented with key informant interviews, to give insight into what predictive policing is, how it can be used and implemented to anticipate crime, and what is known about its effectiveness. It also gives an overview of the currently known applications of predictive policing and their main characteristics.     

Empirical Investigation into Spatial Integration Without Direct Trade: Comparative Analysis Before and After the Establishment of the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the spatial price cointegration of coffee markets in Ethiopia in the pre and post Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) era using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework. The study takes into consideration a market condition in which government policy restricts arbitrage coffee trade between coffee producing areas. Using coffee price data from 1998–2013 and applying a bounds test approach and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test, the study finds that the establishment of ECX has strengthened regional integration rather than a national harmony between producer markets. We also find evidence that, since the establishment of ECX, an opportunity was created for high quality coffee to dominate price formation while also allowing lower quality coffee producing areas to establish themselves. The study underlines the importance of market transparency and exchange of price information between producer markets.     

In a Violent World a Just World Makes Sense: The Case of “Senseless Violence” in The Netherlands

Recent violent incidents in The Netherlands caused nationwide debates about their purported senselessness. Building on Lerner's Just World Theory (Lerner, 1980, The Belief in a Just World. A Fundamental Delusion, Plenum Press, New York), the present experiment sought to delineate the circumstances under which violence is perceived as senseless by outside observers. Participants were more likely to perceive an act of violence as senseless and to identify with the victim when there was no opportunity to blame the victim and when the victim was uninvolved with the perpetrator. These findings suggest that acts of violence are perceived as senseless when attributional strategies fail to uphold observers' belief in a just world.     

Exploring the Association Between Insecure Attachment Styles and Adolescent Autonomy in Family Decision Making: A Differentiated Approach

The present investigation focuses on the associations between adolescents’ insecure attachment styles (i.e., anxiety and avoidance) and their autonomous functioning in family decision making. In line with recent insights in the construct of adolescent autonomy, we combined two perspectives on autonomy, differentiating between the degree of independent versus dependent functioning and the self-endorsed and pressuring motives underlying (in)dependent functioning. A longitudinal sample of 327 adolescents (age range = 13–20 years; 64 % girls) completed questionnaires on attachment to the mother and father and on both autonomy operationalisations on two measurement moments spanning a 1-year interval. Structural equation modeling showed that attachment avoidance generally was unrelated to the degree of independent decision making and the motives underlying independent decision making, but related to more pressuring motives for dependent decision making. Anxiety, on the other hand, was associated with a lower degree of independent decision making as well as with more pressuring motives for both independent and dependent decision making. Cross-lagged paths were generally in line with these findings. Theoretical implications are outlined in the discussion.     

Informal payments for health care services – Corruption or gratitude? A study on public attitudes,perceptions and opinions in six Central and Eastern European countries

In this study we aim to compare the public perceptions towards informal patient payments in six Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Ukraine). Overall, around 35–60% of the general public in each country has ever made informal payments, though informal cash payments are perceived negatively, mostly as corruption. In-kind gifts are often seen as a token of gratitude. However, significant differences among countries are observed. Despite the public support for the eradication of informal payments, there are population groups who favor their existence and this should be taken into account in policy-making.     

An Application of Rating Conjoint Analysis to Study the Importance of Quality-, Access- and Price-attributes to Health Care Consumers

Outside the health care sector, consumer preferences have been effectively studied using rating and ranking conjoint techniques. In the health care sector this technique has received less attention than its choice-based variant. Applications of rating and ranking method to health care issues are few. This paper presents an application of rating conjoint analysis to study the importance of quality, access and price to the health care consumers in Bulgaria. The paper first describes the rating conjoint method and its distinctive features compared to the choice-based and the ranking approach. The method is illustrated by the rating conjoint design applied in the study. Next, the impact of different quality-, access- and price-levels on the rating of physician profiles is analysed and the differences between the socio-demographic groups are examined. The results suggest that similar to other countries, the quality of care is a highly valued characteristic in Bulgaria, whereas access is perceived as less important. The considerable importance of patient payments further implies that Bulgarians are responsive to prices in the health care sector, especially the elderly, the village dwellers and the lowest income groups. The relevance of the results with regards to health policy and planning, as well as with regards to the methodology of rating conjoint analysis is discussed at the end of the paper.