Modeling SSI financial eligibility and simulating the effect of policy options

This article simulates eligibility for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) among the elderly, analyzes factors affecting participation, and looks at the potential effects of various options to modify financial eligibility standards for the federal SSI program. We find that in the estimated noninstitutional elderly population of 30.2 million in the United States in 1991, approximately 2 million individuals aged 65 or older were eligible for SSI (a 6.6 percent rate of eligibility). Our overall estimate of the rate of participation among eligible elderly is approximately 63 percent, suggesting that more than a third of those who are eligible do not participate in the program. The results of our analysis of factors affecting participation among the eligible elderly show that expected SSI benefits and a number of demographic and socioeconomic variables are associated with the probability of participation. We also simulate the effects of various policy options on the poverty rate, poverty gap, annual program cost, the number of participants, and the average estimated benefits among participants. The simulations consider the potential effects of five policy alternatives: Increase the general income exclusion (GIE) from $20 to $80. Increase the earned income exclusion (EIE) from $65 to $260. Increase the federal benefit rate (FBR) by $50 for individuals and $75 for couples and eliminate the GIE. Increase the asset threshold to $3,000 for individuals and $4,500 for couples. Increase the asset threshold to $6,000 for individuals and $9,000 for couples. Using 1991 microdata from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to Social Security Administration administrative records and making adjustments reflecting aggregate program statistics, we present the results of our simulations for December 1999. The results show substantial variation in the simulated effects of the five policy alternatives along the various outcome dimensions considered. The simulated effects on the poverty gap of the elderly population range from a 7.9 percent reduction ("Increase the GIE from $20 to $80") to a 0.1 percent reduction ("Increase the EIE from $65 to $260"). All simulated interventions are expected to increase the rate of SSI participation among the elderly from a high of 20.3 percent ("Increase the GIE from $20 to $80") to a low of 0.5 percent ("Increase the EIE from $65 to $260"). We also find that the interventions that have greater estimated effects in terms of increased participation and reduced poverty tend to cost more. At the high end, we estimate that increasing the GIE from $20 to $80 could raise annual federal SSI cash benefit outlays by about 46 percent, compared with only 0.9 percent for increasing the EIE from $65 to $260. Similar to the EIE intervention, raising the resource thresholds by 50 percent would reduce the overall poverty gap of the elderly by only 0.2 percent, would increase SSI participation only modestly (by 1.3 percent), but would entail slightly higher program costs (by 1.4 percent). Increasing the asset threshold by 200 percent would have higher estimated effects on all three outcomes, but it would still be associated with relatively low increases in both costs and benefits. Finally, the simulated effects on the three key outcomes of increasing the FBR by $50 for individuals and $75 for couples, combined with eliminating the GIE, are relatively large but are clearly less substantial than increasing the GIE from $20 to $80. This work relies on data from the SIPP matched to administrative data on federal SSI benefits that provide a more accurate picture of SSI participation than has been feasible for previous studies. We simulate eligibility for federal SSI benefits by applying the program rules to detailed information on the characteristics of individuals and couples based on the rich array of demographic and socioeconomic data in the SIPP, particularly the comprehensive information SIPP provides on assets and monthly income. A probit model is estimated to analyze factors affecting participation among the eligible elderly. Finally, we conduct the policy simulations using altered program rules represented by the policy alternatives and predicted participation probabilities to estimate outcomes under simulated program rules. We compare those simulated outcomes to observed outcomes under current program rules. The results of our simulations are conditional on the characteristics of participants and eligibles in 1991, but they also reflect aggregate adjustments capturing substantial changes in overall participation and program benefit levels between 1991 and 1999.     

An Evaluation of the Use of Videotaped Evidence for Juvenile Witnesses in Criminal Courts in England and Wales

For the first time, the UK Criminal Justice Act (1991) allowed the videotaped evidence of a child to be substituted for the child's evidence-in-chief in a criminal court. The present study is an evaluation of that legislation. One hundred and fifty children were observed testifying in a criminal court in the UK. The use of the videotaped evidence and subsequent cross-examination of the child witness (usually via the closed circuit television system) was also observed. The data base from the Lord Chancellor's Department of all trials involving child witnesses in England and Wales was also analysed. The results showed that the introduction of the video technology into the criminal courts reduced the levels of stress of child witnesses but did not increase the conviction rates.     

A cross‐Canada analysis of the efficiency of residential recycling services

Abstract: The primary purpose of this article is to investigate the factors that predict the efficiency of residential recycling collection services in Canadian local governments. The findings are based on a survey of 128 residential recycling producers from all regions of Canada. One of the most significant findings is the lack of a relationship between private‐sector companies collecting recyclables and the overall efficiency of collection operations. The dominance of the private‐sector collection of recyclables (over seventy‐seven per cent of all producers were contracted companies) does not translate into greater efficiencies. The most important variables in the model are amenable to local control. They include tonnes collected per vehicle per year, requiring full bins, inclusion of composting operations in the overall recycling program, the number of different kinds of materials recycled, participation rate, and reliance on side‐loading collection vehicles. Among the direct predictors of unit costs, the key underlying factor is the productivity of residential recycling operations. Because recyclables are marketed, handling them takes time, reduces the weights that collection vehicles can carry, and generally reduces productivity. Even diligent efforts to improve productivity will not bring recycling costs down to the levels for residential solid‐waste collection. Sommaire: L'objectif principal du présent article est d'examiner les facteurs qui prévoient l'efficacité des services de collecte de produits recyclables résidentiels dans les municipalités canadiennes. Les résultats reposent sur un sondage réalisé auprès de 128 producteurs de collecte de produits recyclables résidentiels opérant dans toutes les régions du Canada. L'un des résultats les plus notoires est le manque de relations entre les sociétés du secteur privé qui récupèrent les produits recyclables et l'efficacité d'ensemble des opérations de collecte. La prédominance de la collecte de produits recyclables par le secteur privé (plus de soixante‐dix‐sept pour cent de tous les producteurs étaient des sociétés contractuelles) ne se traduit pas par une plus grande efficacité. Les variables les plus importantes du modèle peuvent faire l'objet d'un contrôle local. Elles comprennent les tonnes récupérées par véhicule par an, l'exigence de poubelles pleines, l'inclusion d'opérations de compostage au programme général de recyclage, le nombre de différentes sortes de matériaux recyclés, le taux de participation, et le recours à des camions de collecte à chargement latéral. Parmi les variables explicatives directes des coûts unitaires, le principal facteur sous‐jacent est la productivité des opérations de recyclage résidentiel. Comme les produits recyclables sont commercialisés, leur manutention prend du temps, réduit le poids que les camions de collecte peuvent transporter, et réduit d'une manière générale la productivité. Même des efforts diligents pour améliorer la productivité ne feront pas baisser les coûts du recyclage aux niveaux de ceux de la collecte des déchets solides résidentiels.