Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

Motivations for Social Media Use: Associations with Social Media Engagement and Body Satisfaction and Well-Being among Adolescents

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Adolescents are spending considerable time on social media, yet it is unclear whether motivations for social media use drive different forms of social media...     

The effect of valence and ideology in campaign conversion: panel evidence from three Spanish general elections

This paper studies changes in voting preferences over election campaigns. Building on the literature on spatial models and valence issues, we study whether (1) ideological distance to political parties, (2) assessments of party competence to handle different policy issues, and (3) voter-updated candidate evaluations are factors that explain shifts in voter choices in the weeks preceding the election. To test our hypotheses, we use data from three survey panels conducted for the 2008, 2011 and 2015 Spanish general elections. Our findings show that valence factors are more influential than ideological indifference to account for campaign conversion.     

Doing gender in Spanish same-sex couples. The distribution of housework and childcare

Housework and childcare have been considered mechanisms for ‘doing gender’ through the allocation of different functions to women and to men. Women continue to devote more time and effort to this type of work, in spite of their progressive incorporation into the labour market. Same-sex couples escape this gender binarism, and so this study set out to learn the distribution criteria work, as well as the influence of gender socialization when it comes to establishing this distribution. A qualitative investigation was carried out with 21 Spanish same-sex families. The results indicate that the majority of couples position themselves in an egalitarian discourse based on the absence of differentiated gender roles and a low level of specialization. No differences were found between male and female couples. Nevertheless, the female couples show higher levels of discontent when the distribution was not egalitarian. In conclusion, it is proposed that the effects of gender socialization are perpetuated beyond heterosexual relationships and also affect same-sex couples.