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81.
82.
Raymond B. Firehock John A. Gentry Julia W. Rogers James M. Simon Jr 《Intelligence & National Security》2018,33(5):774-783
The literature on intelligence analysis contains many references to the ‘review process’, the mechanism by which analysts’ drafts are converted into corporate products. Analysts whose drafts consistently navigate the process quickly and smoothly are regarded as star performers. Divining the practical meaning of organizational definitions of ‘good’ analysis and the personal preferences of specific senior reviewers is not easy, however. Analysts occasionally commit their understanding of reviewers’ stylistic preferences to paper, effectively providing style guides to help others. This essay presents and explains the development and implications of one such guide, which was designed to help analysts in CIA’s Office of Strategic Research in the early 1970s. 相似文献
83.
Raymond Cohen 《国际研究展望》2001,2(2):151-160
As long as one lives within the confines of a single culture it is difficult to achieve cross-cultural awareness. Multiculturalism is often simply the tolerance of a dominant culture for minority cultures. Cross-cultural awareness is a state of mind in which one is alert to alternity , the existence of others possessing different and equally valid world views and ways of life. This can be acquired living within or alongside other cultures, when one's own and others' strangeness become readily apparent. Culture shock involves just such a realization. The challenge for the teacher of international relations is to convey the possibility of alternity to students in the classroom. After all, international relations is above all about the interaction between communities possessing separate identities and autonomous wills. The article discusses ways of cultivating cross-cultural awareness, comparing the difficulties of doing so in a society under siege—Israel—with the greater scope available in the cosmopolitan setting of an elite American university. 相似文献
84.
This article examines the well-documented relationship between early initiation or onset of criminal behavior and a heightened
risk of involvement in offending. Previous research examining this question conducted by Nagin and Farrington (Criminology
30:235–260, 1992a; Criminology 30:501–523, 1992b) used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development and found that: (1) onset age was correlated with offending
involvement; and (2) the correlation could be explained by stable individual differences in the propensity to offend rather
than a causal effect of early onset age. In this study, similar analytic methods are applied to data from the Second Philadelphia
Birth Cohort. This data set consists of all 13,160 males born in Philadelphia in 1958 who resided in the city continuously
from ages 10 to 18, slightly more than half of whom were non-white. Information from each of the youths was collected from
schools, juvenile justice agencies, other official sources and surveys. In a model that mimics previous analyses, we initially
found that an early age of onset is associated with greater subsequent involvement in delinquent behavior. When unobserved
criminal propensity was controlled, however, we found that a late rather than an early onset of delinquency was related to
future offending. In finding a state dependent effect for age of onset, our findings are contrary to propensity theory in
criminology. In finding that it is late rather early onset which puts youth at risk for future offending, our findings are
contrary to developmental/life course theory. Our results are more compatible with traditional criminological theory that
is friendly to state dependence processes, though they too have not to date articulated why a late onsetting of offending
might be particularly criminogenic.
Sarah Bacon is an Assistant Professor in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. Her research interests focus on quantitative methods, testing criminological theory, and capital punishment. This paper is an extension of work conducted for her M.A. thesis at the University of Maryland. Raymond Paternoster is Professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Maryland and Faculty Affiliate of the Maryland Population Research Center, College Park, Maryland. He received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. His research interests focus on testing criminological theory, the relationship between events in adolescence and delinquency, and capital punishment. Robert Brame is Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. His current research interests focus on domestic violence, the use of criminal records for screening purposes, linkages between adolescent employment and criminal behavior, and capital punishment. 相似文献
Raymond PaternosterEmail: |
Sarah Bacon is an Assistant Professor in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. Her research interests focus on quantitative methods, testing criminological theory, and capital punishment. This paper is an extension of work conducted for her M.A. thesis at the University of Maryland. Raymond Paternoster is Professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Maryland and Faculty Affiliate of the Maryland Population Research Center, College Park, Maryland. He received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. His research interests focus on testing criminological theory, the relationship between events in adolescence and delinquency, and capital punishment. Robert Brame is Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of North Carolina Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland. His current research interests focus on domestic violence, the use of criminal records for screening purposes, linkages between adolescent employment and criminal behavior, and capital punishment. 相似文献
85.
We investigate the political economy of IMF forecasts with data for 157 countries (1999–2005). Generally, we find evidence of forecast bias in growth and inflation. Specifically, we find that countries voting with the United States in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts as domestic elections approach. Countries with large loans outstanding from the IMF also receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting that the IMF engages in “defensive forecasting.” Finally, countries with fixed exchange rate regimes receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting the IMF desires to preserve stability as inflation can have detrimental effects under such an exchange rate regime. 相似文献
86.
87.
This paper presents a scale designed for the measurement of attitudes toward handgun control. A review of the literature was undertaken in order to identify salient questions used in previous surveys measuring attitudes toward gun control in general and, more specifically, toward handgun control. Subsequently, thirteen items were developed and included in a statewide survey of 1,442 Texas residents. The thirteen items were then examined using the Guttman scaling evaluation procedure, and nine items were retained on the final scale. The coefficient of scalability for the nine-item scale was .698, and the coefficient of reproducability was .915. This scale represents the first multi-item instrument available for the measurement of attitudes toward handgun control and, therefore, presents a means for more advanced statistical analysis of the factors influencing these attitudes. 相似文献
88.
89.
David M Cutler Jonathan Gruber Raymond S Hartman Mary Beth Landrum Joseph P Newhouse Meredith B Rosenthal 《Journal of policy analysis and management》2002,21(1):1-19
Recent litigation against the major tobacco companies culminated in a master settlement agreement (MSA) under which the participating companies agreed to compensate most states for Medicaid expenses. Here the terms of the settlement are outlined and its economic implications analyzed using data from Massachusetts. The financial compensation to Massachusetts (and other states) under the MSA is substantial. However, this compensation is dwarfed by the value of the health impacts induced by the settlement. Specifically, Medicaid spending will fall, but only by a modest amount. More importantly, the value of health benefits ($65 billion through 2025 in 1999 dollars) from increased longevity is an order of magnitude greater than any other impacts or payments. The net efficiency implications of the settlement turn mainly on a comparison of the value of these health benefits relative to a valuation of the foregone pleasure of smoking. To the extent that the value of the health benefits is not offset by the value of the pleasure foregone, the economic impacts of the MSA will include a share of these health benefits. 相似文献
90.