The (Un)predictability of Primaries with Many Candidates: Simulation Evidence

It is common to describe the dynamic processes that generateoutcomes in U.S. primaries as ``unstable'' or ``unpredictable''. In fact, the way we choose candidates may amount to alottery. This paper uses a simulation approach, assuming10,000 voters who vote according to a naive, deterministicproximity rule, but who choose party affiliationprobabilistically. The voters of each party then must choose between twosets of ten randomly chosen candidates, in ``closed'' primaries.Finally, the winners of the two nominations compete in thegeneral election, in which independent voters also participate.The key result of the simulations reported here isthe complete unpredictability of the outcomes of a sequence ofprimaries: the winner of the primary, or the party's nominee,varied as much as two standard deviations from the medianpartisan voter. The reason is that the median, or any othermeasure of the center of the distribution of voters, isof little value in predicting the outcome of multicandidateelections. These results suggest that who runs may havemore to do with who wins than any other consideration. If more than two parties or candidates are expected, then thevote-maximizing position is not close to your opponents, butwell away from them. (Tullock, 1967: 55).     

Grouping of Y-STR haplotypes discloses European geographic clines

Y-STR haplotypes are widely studied in Europe and an extensive databasing effort has been conducted (http://www.ystr.org). The distribution of these haplotypes has been considered to present no evidence for substructure at central and southern European level. This picture contrasts with the one that results from Y haplogroups defined by binary markers. This paradox has been solved by admitting that the high STR mutation rate and corresponding recurrence has erased geographic structuration. This explanation prompted us to reanalyse Y-STR haplotypes distribution bearing in mind the commonly admitted model for the generation of diversity in these markers, namely the stepwise mutation model (SMM) and, thus, taking the molecular distance between haplotypes into consideration. Accordingly, we have studied the European distribution of the two most frequent haplotypes in the Iberian Peninsula and their one step neighbours using the European samples deposited in the Y STR database (http://www.ystr.org). For the first group we found a clear-cut decreasing W-E gradient, while for the second the highest frequencies were found in the Iberian Peninsula (3.98% in Portugal and 3.85% in Spain), dropping to 2.88% in France and showing a less well defined SW-NW gradient. Furthermore, we have tested the agreement between haplotype groups and binary markers haplogroups in a random sample of 292 individuals from Northern Portugal. Our results demonstrate that (a) Y-STR haplotype data can be used for wide-scale anthropological approaches disclosing information that has been considered only available through binary markers and (b) forensic use of continental databases needs careful refinement, due to the macro-geographic pattern now evidenced.     

Morphological Assessment of Ancestry using Cranial Macromorphoscopics,

Ancestry estimation is essential for biological profile estimation in forensic anthropology. Hefner (2009) and Osteoware (Smithsonian Institution, 2011) presented 16 macromorphoscopic traits that can be scored for standardized data collection and can also be used within a statistical framework to estimate ancestry. The primary purpose of this research was to examine the utility of these traits for assessing ancestry. Tests of observer agreement and the range of variation in trait expression were evaluated. A sample of 208 American whites and blacks from the Hamann–Todd Collection were scored, and several classification methods were utilized in accordance with Hefner (2009). Correct classifications for the pooled sex analyses ranged from 73.3% to 86.6% and from 46.7% to 64.3% when the sexes were analyzed independently. Interobserver agreement was variable and was found to be lower than that presented in Hefner (2009). Trait expression was variable in both groups and was generally consistent with Hefner's findings.     

Changes in staff confidence and attributions for challenging behaviour after training in positive behavioural support,within a forensic mental health setting: a replication study with follow-up

Positive behavioural support (PBS) is a proactive approach to managing challenging behaviour. Staff in a forensic mental health service were provided training in PBS. The study aimed to assess the effectiveness of training by measuring changes to staff confidence and attributions for challenging behaviour before training, post training and at six-month follow-up. Qualified and unqualified staff were compared, as were male and female staff. Confidence was measured using an adapted version of the Confidence in Coping with Patient Aggression Instrument. The Challenging Behaviour Attributions Scale and the Causal Dimension Scale II assessed staff attributions. Staff confidence levels in working with challenging behaviour increased following PBS training, and this increase was maintained at six-month follow-up, for unqualified, qualified, male and female staff. Changes in attributions for challenging behaviour were observed post training; however changes were not maintained at follow-up. Limitations and clinical implications were outlined.     

Correction to: Beyond Performance: Racial Prejudice and Whites’ Mistrust of Government

Political Behavior -     

State-led bricolage and the extension of collective governance: Hybridity in the Swiss skill formation system

This paper explores the extension of collective governance to sectors without collective governance tradition. We introduce the concept of state-led bricolage to analyze the expansion of the Swiss apprenticeship training system – in which employer associations fulfill core collective governance tasks – to economic sectors in which training had previously followed a school-based and state-oriented logic. In deindustrializing societies, these sectors are key for the survival of collectively governed training systems. Through a mixed-methods analysis, we examine the reform process that led to the creation of new intermediary organizations that enable collective governance in these sectors. In addition, we compare the organizational features of these organizations with the respective organizations in the traditional crafts and industry sectors. We find that the new organizations result from state-led bricolage. They are hybrid organizations that reflect some of the bricoleur's core policy goals and critically build on the combination of associational and state-oriented institutional logics.     

Business model–dynamic capabilities and open innovation initiatives in research-intensive organisations: A case of Australia's national science agency

Publicly funded national science agencies create value as innovation catalysts and through their scientific and research missions, they tackle wicked problems. Understanding how dynamic capabilities and business model innovation enable research-intensive organisations to seize the market in the mission is key to translating bold new science that has impact. We qualitatively explore how Australia's national science agency—the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)—has pursued open innovation to support business model–dynamic capabilities in an evolving publicly funded landscape. We reflect on the value of open innovation initiatives that have allowed the CSIRO to ambidextrously pursue world-class science while achieving impact.

Points for practitioners

• Dynamic capabilities and business model innovation are strategic tools for publicly funded national science agencies seeking to seize the market in the mission.
• We examine a case of business model–dynamic capabilities in CSIRO.
• Open innovation has been important for CSIRO as part of an ambidextrous approach.