The political economy of IMF forecasts

We investigate the political economy of IMF forecasts with data for 157 countries (1999–2005). Generally, we find evidence of forecast bias in growth and inflation. Specifically, we find that countries voting with the United States in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts as domestic elections approach. Countries with large loans outstanding from the IMF also receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting that the IMF engages in “defensive forecasting.” Finally, countries with fixed exchange rate regimes receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting the IMF desires to preserve stability as inflation can have detrimental effects under such an exchange rate regime.     

Does US aid buy UN general assembly votes? A disaggregated analysis

Using panel data for 143 countries over the period 1973–2002, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of US aid on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. We use disaggregated aid data to account for the fact that various forms of aid may differ in their ability to induce political support by recipients. We obtain strong evidence that US aid buys voting compliance in the Assembly. More specifically, our results suggest that general budget support and grants are the major aid categories by which recipients have been induced to vote in line with the United States. When replicating the analysis for other G7 donors, no comparable patterns emerge.     

Female family size ideals as population policy objectives for Latin America: Demographic and methodological considerations

This paper discusses the use of female family size ideals in the formulation of population policies in Latin America and the demographic implications of and barriers to the attainment of this objective. Using a specially developed cohort projection model that incorporates contraceptive activity and resource limitations, the authors empirically analyze El Salvador, Mexico and Venezuela.Results indicate that in the next two decades most cohorts of women now in the reproductive ages will experience completed family size at levels that far exceed stated ideal family size. Using data based on optimistic assumptions concerning the effectiveness of family planning services, the authors feel that achieving ideal family size could be possible. Despite the apparent difficulties involved in reducing the high fertility of these populations, the authors conclude that family size ideals as stated by women deserve further attention as a policy alternative.This is a revised version of a paper given at the 1975 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Seattle, Washington, April 1975. Research for this paper was funded by Population Council Grant T73.54.     

Does terror increase aid?

This article investigates empirically whether, and in what ways, donors in the Development Assistance Committee respond to transnational terrorist incidents and the onset of the War on Terror by changing aid effort and aid allocation. First, an analysis of 22 donor countries shows that aid effort increased during the War on Terror period, but did not respond to the actual number of terror events. Second, using aid allocation equations, we find that countries where terror originates are not more likely to receive aid as a consequence, but if they are selected, they receive larger amounts of aid. Our results imply that politicians may still have to learn from economic research. To the extent that development aid can effectively combat terror across the world, as recent research suggests it does, politicians would be well-advised to target aid to those countries where terrorist groups exist in abundance.     

Measurement of Postmortem Pupil Size: A New Method with Excellent Reliability and Its Application to Pupil Changes in the Early Postmortem Period

Measurement of postmortem pupil width is a potential component of death time estimation. However, no standardized measurement method has been described. We analyzed a total of 71 digital images for pupil–iris ratio using the software ImageJ. Images were analyzed three times by four different examiners. In addition, serial images from 10 cases were taken between 2 and 50 h postmortem to detect spontaneous pupil changes. Intra‐ and inter‐rater reliability of the method was excellent (ICC > 0.95). The method is observer independent and yields consistent results, and images can be digitally stored and re‐evaluated. The method seems highly eligible for forensic and scientific purposes. While statistical analysis of spontaneous pupil changes revealed a significant polynomial of quartic degree for postmortem time (p = 0.001), an obvious pattern was not detected. These results do not indicate suitability of spontaneous pupil changes for forensic death time estimation, as formerly suggested.