Strategic Latency and World Order

This article examines “strategic latency,” a condition in which technologies that could provide military (or economic) advantage remain untapped. As difficult as it is to explain why certain ideas and technologies flourish and find rapid acceptance, it is equally hard to understand why some good ideas languish, only to be rediscovered and exploited under other circumstances. Why is latent capacity so often dormant? What are the indicators that latent capacity is on the verge of being weaponized?

History is merely a list of surprises. . . . It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.Kurt Vonnegut, Slapstick

     

China, the German Analogy, and the New AirSea Operational Concept

This article examines the assumptions that lead China alarmists to dismiss America's ability to impose a distant blockade as an inadequate counter to Chinese A2/AD systems. It argues that distant blockade is indeed a viable, lower cost strategy that capitalizes on America's strengths and China's weaknesses.     

On the Trail of the ‘Lions of Islam’: Foreign Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1980-2010

This article provides a review of the history of jihadi foreign fighters in Afghanistan over the last 30 years. It details the post-9/11 period and the invasion of Afghanistan by U.S. forces, focusing on the ethnic origin of the foreign fighters and how different groups engaged in different aspects of the conflict. Additionally, the piece explains that while the foreign fighters who came to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan included, among others, Uzbekistanis (not Afghan Uzbeks), Turks, and Arabs, there was also a significant force of Pakistanis—of both Pashtun and Punjabi origins—that joined, bolstering the Taliban army.     

Harvey Sicherman: A Celebration

The Pulitzer Prize-winning historian reflects on the rich intellectual fare enjoyed over weekly lunches with Harvey Sicherman. McDougall describes Harvey's mastery of traditional geopolitical analysis, as well as his deftness in adapting strategy to the late-Cold War and post-Cold War eras.     

Communication Breakdown: Strategic Communications and Defeat in Afghanistan

The author reflects on our decade long conflict in Afghanistan and identifies what he considers a main contributor to the malaise. He believes it is a failure to communicate: a message of purpose which answers the oft-asked “why are we there?” question amongst Western audiences; a message of resolve on which Afghans can bet their lives that ISAF will remain there until the Taliban is beaten or compelled to reasonable compromise; and, a message of what success will look like which is accompanied by a compelling rationalization of the cost.     

China and India: Awkward Ascents

This article surveys the key loci of Sino-Indian tension, situating them within the context of a classical if uneven security dilemma. It then examines the sources of stability within the relationship, arguing that the scope and intensity of conflict is attenuated by a series of military, political, economic and other factors. Lastly, the essay discusses the implications of the analysis for external powers, and the possible trajectories of the relationship.     

Motives and methods for leaving the gang: Understanding the process of gang desistance

Purpose

This study examined the process of leaving the gang. Gang membership was conceptualized in a life course framework and the motives for why and methods for how one leaves the gang were analyzed.

Methods

Data were gathered from a sample of 84 juvenile arrestees in Arizona, all of whom left their gang. Motives for leaving the gang were organized into factors internal (push) and external (pull) to the gang, while methods for leaving the gang were organized into hostile and non-hostile modes of departure. Motives and methods were cross-classified and their correlates were examined, notably in relation to gang ties—persisting social and emotional attachments to the gang.

Results

Push motives and non-hostile methods were the modal responses for leaving the gang. While it was not uncommon to experience a hostile departure from the gang, most former gang members reported walking away without ritual violence or ceremony. This method was conditional on the motive for departure, however. None of the individuals leaving the gang for pull or external reasons experienced a hostile departure. While gang ties persisted regardless of motive or method, retaining such ties corresponded with serious consequences.

Conclusions

A life course framework is capable of organizing similarities between leaving the gang and desistance from other forms of crime and deviant groups. The process of gang desistance is consistent with asymmetrical causation. Due to limited attention to this process, a typology is introduced as a basis for understanding leaving the gang in relation to desisting from crime.     

Evidence on the Effectiveness of Juvenile Court Sanctions

Purpose

The past decade has been witness to a proliferation of calls for evidence-based juvenile court sanctions—including various programs, interventions, services, and strategies or approaches—that reduce recidivism and improve mental health, drug dependency, and education outcomes. At the same time, an emerging body of work has identified “proven,” “evidence-based,” “best practice,” or, more generally, “effective” efforts to achieve these outcomes. Even so, grounds for concern exist regarding the evidence-base for these and other sanctions.

Methods

This paper describes the heterogeneity of sanctioning within juvenile justice and argues that, despite substantial advances in research, the heterogeneity severely delimits the generalizability of evaluations to date. It also raises questions about how much is in fact known about the effectiveness of many juvenile justice sanctions.

Conclusion

Extant research offers grounds for optimism. Even so, explicit articulation of the limitations of this research and the need for studies that examine external validity is important for developing evidence about “what works” in juvenile justice. Implications for research and policy are discussed.     

Bioinformatics and genetic privacy: The impact of the Personal Data Protection Act 2010

Bioinformatics refers to the practise of creation and management of genetic data using computational and statistical techniques. In Malaysia, data obtained from genomic studies, particularly for the purpose of disease identification produces a tremendous amount of information related to molecular biology. These data are created from DNA samples obtained from diagnostic and research purposes in genomic research institutes in Malaysia. As these data are processed, stored, managed and profiled using computer applications, an issue arises as to whether the principles of personal data privacy would be applicable to these activities. This paper commences with an illustration of the salient features of the Personal Data Protection Act 2010. The second part analyses the impact of the newly passed Personal Data Protection Act 2010 on the collection of DNA sample, the processing of data obtained from it and the profiling of such data. The third part of the paper considers whether the various personal data protection principles are applicable to the act of DNA profiling and the creation of bioinformatics.