Die personalisierte Verhältniswahl unter den Bedingungen des gesamtdeutschen Parteiensystems. Eine Analyse der Entstehungsursachen von Überhangmandaten seit der Wiedervereinigung

Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, internationally known as the ‘German model’, has been recently criticized, since the 1994 Bundestag elections saw the genesis of several surplus mandates giving the CDU-FDP-government a safer majority in parliament. Due to this institutional effect, a lot of political scientists and lawyers have argued that the electoral system is no longer in conformity with the constitutional principle of electoral equality. From the perspective of empirical political analysis, two important aspects have not been taken into account in this debate. First, the complex relationship between different factors causing surplus mandates have not been analysed in a systematic-comparative manner. Second, the literature does not explain why so many surplus mandates have appeared in all national elections since 1990 whereas almost none were produced in Bundestag elections before the reunification. This study analyses the genesis of surplus mandates having appeared in the three German Bundestag elections since reunification (1990–1998). In contrast to monocausal explanations it confirms the hypothesis that in the present political context almost all surplus mandates result from complex relationships between generally known explanatory variables. Furthermore, the empirical analysis shows that the genesis of surplus mandates is not only caused by particularities of electoral districting in certain Bundesländer, but also by politico-structural differences between East and West Germany.     

Implementing transition management as policy reforms: a case study of the Dutch energy sector

Proposals to alter large-scale socio-technical systems through government actions in order to promote goals such as sustainability are highly uncertain policy projects. What is being proposed is the replacement of specific elements of existing policy ‘mixes’—the goals and means—by others, in the expectation of avoiding counterproductive or sub-optimal policy outcomes. While laudable, such efforts are fraught with risks; including the possibility of the creation of sub-optimal policy mixes or of failed reform efforts with resulting poor outcomes. This article develops a model and typology of policy regime change processes and outcomes following Thelen and others in arguing that complex policy mixes typically emerge through one or more of four processes, ‘drift’, ‘conversion’, ‘layering’ and ‘replacement’, and that the expected outcomes of these different processes in terms of their ability to meet initial expectations are linked to the manner in which policy goals and means are (or are not) combined in a consistent, coherent and congruent fashion. This propensity is illustrated through examination of the case of energy transition management as practiced in the Netherlands.     

Extreme value theory applied to police performance analysis

Extreme value theory is used to provide, according to one reviewer, a quantitative measure of the probability of a police dispatch operation going “haywire” under pressure. Convensional queuing theory that concentrates on measures of average performance is not readily adaptable to this application. In a major police department, average values of delay response were found to be acceptable, and preliminary analysis showed that sufficient resources were available to avoid excessive queuing at peak loads. Nevertheless, reports of occasional excessively delayed responses indicated the existence of serious problems. Extreme value theory concentrates on the statistically rare long delays that, because of the many repetitions of requests for service, can occur more frequently in time than is acceptable to police management. In the example discussed, the predicted magnitudes and frequencies of these long delays provided the justification for an immediate improvement program. In general, the straightforward methodology described would appear to have broad applications and great practical value. The subsequent analysis to identify causal factors is not a part of the discussion.     

Forensic sciences and medicine. The clinical or living aspects

This presentation of information regarding the application of the forensic sciences and medicine to the evaluation of living persons and its related problems is based on the case experience of a private practitioner of forensic medicine and pathology. Lawyers, law-enforcement personnel, and fellow physicians must be educated regarding the potential role of the forensic physician in the examination of living people. Many examples of the application of forensic expertise to the solution of crimes and civil problems involving living persons are included.     

The pathology and medicolegal aspects of sexual activity

The pathology of injury and its complications related to sexual activities has changed remarkably when compared with that of the past, which usually involved assaults or murders of female victims of varying ages, with moderate to serve beatings that may have accidentally resulted in the victim's death. Serial murderers, serial rapists, and molesters of both boys and girls have become much more prevalent in the last two decades in the United States. Unorthodox sexual behavior, such as "fisting," has increased in frequency, as has sexual violence related to cults, such as satanism. All of these present many challenges to medicolegal investigators. This report describes general and specific pathological sexual activities and injuries, some characteristics and methods of the perpetrators, and some specific cases as examples.     

Clinical forensic examination findings in assault cases among adolescents

Child and youth criminality has risen markedly over the past 25 years and causes increasing concern to the general public. The clinical forensic examination cases of youth violence victims examined at the Institute of Legal Medicine of the Hanover Medical School and its Oldenburg Branch between 1999 and 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. In all, 55 adolescents (37 females, 18 males; median age 15.5 years) were examined. In most cases the suspect was a close (40.0%) or passing (23.6%) acquaintance. 16 assaults were committed by two or more adolescents jointly. Most of the juveniles were victims of sexual assaults (56.4%). In 15 victims of sexual offences (51.7%) diagnostic findings were obtained on the basis of anogenital injuries and/or the presence of sperm. In summary, the analysis shows that adolescents frequently become victims of sexual assault. In addition, youth violence is often committed in a group.     

Charles Norris (1868-1935) and Thomas A. Gonzales (1878-1956), New York's forensic pioneers

American forensic medicine is forever indebted to pioneers like George Magrath of Boston, Milton Helpern of New York, LeMoyne Snyder of Michigan, and others, but the organizing of forensic medicine in the formal sense is due to the efforts of Charles Norris (Figure 1) and his successor Thomas A. Gonzales (Figure 2). These men were instrumental in developing the subspecialty as an extension of clinical medicine in which information derived from study of the dead was applied to benefit the living. Their combined efforts between 1918 and 1954 represent the epitome of the application of scientific expertise to medicolegal investigation of deaths in America. Their collaboration from 1918 to 1935 was particularly fruitful. The support of Dr. Alexander Gettler and, in 1938, the addition of Dr. Wiener to the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner made this period a golden era for forensic medicine.     

Comparison of the battles at the Little Bighorn and at Isandhlwana. Medicolegal and forensic aspects.

Compared are two great and remarkably similar battles that occurred less than 3 years apart: the U.S. Cavalry versus the Plains Indians in the battle at the Little Bighorn in Montana Territory of the United States, and the British-Zulu battle at Isandhlwana in the Natal Province of South Africa. Computer evaluation, which was especially helpful in evaluating artifacts at the Montana site, could be an excellent tool to use in other such large-scale investigations.     

The Ripper Project. Modern science solving mysteries of history

Modern scientific techniques may be applied to solve historical--even ancient--mysteries. Many such mysteries have been studied by forensic scientists, including anthropologists. One example is the recent examination of the artifacts and grave sites at the Little Bighorn in Montana, the scene of the battle between General George A. Custer's troops and the Northern Plains Indian tribes. Similarly, skeleton remains of the Indian tribes of the Pre-Columbian and Columbian periods have been studied to answer many questions regarding life and death in those early civilizations. The Ripper Project began as a research activity of the Milton Helpern International Center for the Forensic Sciences at Wichita State University Wichita, Kansas, in 1981, after the concept had been discussed in a night session during the annual meeting of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences in Los Angeles. These century-old serial murders of five prostitutes--The Whitechapel Murders--in London in 1888 were discussed in great detail from the standpoints of the forensic pathologist, the forensic psychiatrist, the criminalist, the forensic historian, and the forensic dentist. The information gained during this phase of the project plus the advances made possible by the development of criminal personality profiling by the FBI led to the present status of this project, which was recently discussed in a live telecast, and which is the subject of this article.