Measuring the Distribution of Crime and Its Concentration

Objectives

Generally speaking, crime is, fortunately, a rare event. As far as modelling is concerned, this sparsity of data means that traditional measures to quantify concentration are not appropriate when applied to crime suffered by a population. Our objective is to develop a new technique to measure the concentration of crime which takes into account its low frequency of occurrence and its high degree of concentration in such a way that this measure is comparable over time and over different populations.

Methods

This article derives an estimate of the distribution of crime suffered by a population based on a mixture model and then evaluates a new and standardised measurement of the concentration of the rates of suffering a crime based on that distribution.

Results

The new measure is successfully applied to the incidence of robbery of a person in Mexico and is able to correctly quantify the concentration crime in such a way that is comparable between different regions and can be tracked over different time periods.

Conclusions

The risk of suffering a crime is not uniformly distributed across a population. There are certain groups which are statistically immune to suffering crime but there are also groups which suffer chronic victimisation. This measure improves our understanding of how patterns of crime can be quantified allowing us to determine if a prevention policy results in a crime reduction rather than target displacement. The method may have applications beyond crime science.

     

The role of valuation and bargaining in optimising transboundary watercourse treaty regimes

In the face of water scarcity, growing water demands, population increase, ecosystem degradation, or climate change, transboundary watercourse states inevitably have to make difficult decisions on how finite quantities of water are distributed. Such waters, and their associated ecosystem services, offer multiple benefits. Valuation and bargaining can play a key role in the sharing of these ecosystems services and their associated benefits across sovereign borders. Ecosystem services in transboundary watercourses essentially constitute a portfolio of assets. While challenging, their commodification, which creates property rights, supports trading. Such trading offers a means by which to resolve conflicts over competing uses and allows states to optimise their ‘portfolios’. However, despite this potential, adoption of appropriate treaty frameworks that might facilitate a market-based approach to the discovery and allocation of water-related ecosystem services at the transboundary level remains both a challenge and a topic worthy of further study. Drawing upon concepts in law and economics, this paper therefore seeks to advance the study of how treaty frameworks might be developed in a way that supports such a market-based approach to ecosystem services and transboundary waters.     

Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.     

Racial Inequality in the Uruguayan Labor Market: An Analysis of Wage Differentials Between Afro‐descendants and Whites

Latin America is a region of sharp ethnic inequalities. Uruguay has usually been considered an exception to this pattern, although no data were available to confirm this assumption until recently. This article uses the Household Survey of 2006 to analyze the wage gap between Afro‐descendants and whites through OLS equations, decompositions, and quantile regressions. The analysis finds that discrimination explains approximately 50 percent of the racial wage gap for men and 20 percent for women. Discrimination operates partly through occupational segregation. Differences in schooling are the most important explanatory factor for the rest of the gap. Quantile regressions show that discrimination declines across percentiles for men.     

Do Changes in the Labour Market Take Families Out of Poverty? Determinants of Exiting Poverty in Brazilian Metropolitan Regions

Abstract

Using survival models, we test whether short-term changes in the labour market affect poverty duration. Data are from the Brazilian Monthly Employment Survey. Such a monthly dataset permits more accurate estimations of events than using annual data, but its panel follows households for a short period. Then methods that control for both right- and left-censoring should be used. The results are as follows: households with zero income are not those with the lowest chances of exiting; changes in aggregate unemployment do not affect poverty duration; and increasing wages in the informal sector has a negative effect on poverty duration.     

Characteristics and performance of Japanese foreign direct investment in latin America

This paper describes the characteristics of Japanese foreign investment in Latin America. In examining FDI patterns, we identify the countries and industries most attractive to Japanese multinational corporations, the preferred modes of entry, and the post-entry performance of these subsidiaries. We find that most Japanese FDI has occurred in Brazil and Mexico, that joint ventures are the most common mode of entry, and that performance varies by country and mode. The observations have implications for three groups of executives: managers of non-Latin American firms, managers of Latin American firms, and public policy makers.     

Set for Instability: Prospects for Conflict and Cooperation between Israel and Jordan

This article argues that since 1949, the relationship between Israel and Jordan has depended primarily on their interactions with a Third Actor--identified as Egypt from 1949 to the mid-1970s, and as the Palestinians thereafter. Conflict between Israel and Jordan always follows conflict one or both nations have with the Third Actor. The analysis suggests a cyclical and hierarchical allegiance condition, in which Jordan switches from an alliance with Israel to an alliance with the Third Actor. Jordan cooperates with Israel--even if it itself engages in conflict with the Third Actor--until Israel engages in conflict with the Third Actor, at which point Jordan realigns with the Third Actor against Israel. This analysis suggests that to avoid an Israeli-Jordanian conflict, Israel must reach an agreement with the Palestinians regarding the existence and borders of a Palestinian state. Such an agreement, however, may not guarantee permanent peace between Israel and Jordan, as regional tensions fueled by controversy regarding the existence and legitimacy of the Jordanian Hashemite monarchy may rise again. Thus, even if a Palestinian state were established, the current peace between Israel and Jordan might be transitory.     

Determination of Herbicides Paraquat,Glyphosate, and Aminomethylphosphonic Acid in Marijuana Samples by Capillary Electrophoresis

In this work, two methods were developed to determine herbicides paraquat, glyphosate, and aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) in marijuana samples by capillary electrophoresis. For paraquat analysis, sample was extracted with aqueous acetic acid solution and analyzed by capillary zone electrophoresis with direct UV detection. The running electrolyte was 50 mmol/L phosphate buffer (pH 2.50). For glyphosate and AMPA, indirect UV/VIS detection was used, as these substances do not present chromophoric groups. Samples were extracted with 5 mmol/L hydrochloric acid. The running electrolyte was 10 mmol/L gallic acid, 6 mmol/L TRIS, and 0.1 mmol/L CTAB (pH = 4.7). The methods presented good linearity, precision, accuracy, and recovery. Paraquat was detected in 12 samples (n = 130), ranging from 0.01 to 25.1 mg/g. Three samples were positive for glyphosate (0.15–0.75 mg/g), and one sample presented AMPA as well. Experimental studies are suggested to evaluate the risks of these concentrations to marijuana user.