Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Did the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Improve Compliance? Three Studies of Pre- and Post-TRA Compliance Attitudes*

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 rewrote the federal income tax code, bringing it closer to policy professionals' vision of what constitutes an equitable and efficient income tax. Research on tax compliance suggests the law might have affected taxpayer compliance in three ways: by reducing opportunities to overstate deductions, by changing perceptions of fairness, and by altering tax liabilities. Changes in taxpayer perceptions, attitudes, and noncompliance intentions were examined in three bodies of survey data, each containing pre-and post-reform data from independent samples of the same population. The results show an improved normative climate for taxpayer compliance and point to both the feasibility and the importance of examining the effects of substantive tax policies on taxpayer perceptions, attitudes, and behavioral intentions.     

Prison mental health services: results of a national survey of standards, resources, administrative structure, and litigation

The formation of adequate mental health systems within prisons has accelerated as a result of successful class action lawsuits. Our recent national survey questioned all state correctional departments about the existence of standards in each system, compliance with such standards, prevalence of class action lawsuits involving the issue of providing adequate mental health services for inmates, issues related to consent decrees, available mental health resources within the correctional system, and the administrative structure of the mental health system. Our purpose was to identify those factors correlated with certified class action lawsuits involving issues related to mental health services. Twenty-one states were involved in such litigation. Only the presence of psychiatric hospitals operated by the department of corrections correlated with the presence of certified class action lawsuits involving mental health services. Prison systems larger than 15,000 inmates were at higher risk for such litigation. Smaller systems having psychiatric hospitals run by the state mental health agency appeared to be at less risk for such litigation.     

Recovery of decomposed and skeletal human remains in the "Green River Murder" Investigation. Implications for medical examiner/coroner and police

The Green River Murder Investigation in King County, Washington, is currently the longest active serial murder investigation in U.S. history. During its course, over 26 separate scenes with from one to five victims each have been processed. The experience of the authors is presented in order to acquaint other agencies with techniques of outdoor scene processing that have evolved during recovery of remains from Green River and other skeletal cases.     

Managing the Environment: Rhetoric, Policy and Reality

This article argues that, despite environmental issues climbing higher on the political agenda and considerable recent policy activity, rhetoric is not matched by reality in our efforts to manage the Australian environment. We integrate the imperatives emerging from the policy and sustainability literatures and from actual policy, with detailed work on wildlife conservation in Victoria's Central Highlands. Our analysis demonstrates that, rather than undertaking the more intensive policy and 'adaptive management' that is needed, governments are often doing less and may actually be 'taking their hands of their wheel'. Some public policy and administration implications of the emerging policy field of sustainability are illustrated.     

Site of discovery in the bath tub. Evaluation of a fatality after four years using postmortem roentgen diagnosis]

On the one hand the following case demonstrates the problems of finding a dead body in the bathroom and on the other hand the importance of postmortem x-ray examinations. The corpse of an 65-year-old woman was discovered in her bath tub. At the body's feet there was a hair dryer. Investigations concerning murder were negative, circumstances appeared to be unsuspicious. That was why a postmortem examination was not performed. -4 years later murder had to be considered. After manual strangling the deceased and the hair dryer were layed into the bath tub. The corpse was exhumed and taken to a forensic autopsy. It was found that the hyoid bone and the superior horn of the thyroid cartilage were both fractured on the right. Damages caused by the preparation itself were excluded by using serial roentgenographs. These observations in combination with histological findings and the results of further investigations convincingly supported the suspicion of strangling by hand.     

Dangerousness of the delusional misidentification of children.

Misidentification syndromes have been studied from a variety of perspectives, including phenomenological, biological, and nosological approaches. More recently, misidentification syndromes have been studied from a psychiatric-legal perspective, especially with regards to the problem of dangerousness. Capgras syndrome and other syndromes of misidentification can lead to hostile mood and subsequent physical violence. Little attention has so far been devoted to children as the objects of the psychotic person's misidentification delusion(s). We provide a review of cases from the anglophonic literature that have children as the misidentified objects, add three new cases, and then discuss the relationship between misidentification and potential harm to these children.