Elite economic forecasts,economic news,mass economic expectations,and voting intentions in Great Britain

Abstract In order to test the notion that the electorate relies, derivatively, on professional economic forecasts, we consider the entire chain between elite economic expectations, economic news, mass economic expectations, and voter preferences. We find that while elite expectations are based on the objective economy, they are politically biased in the neighborhood of elections. Reports of economic news, while based on the objective economy and on elite expectations, have their own political rhythm in the form of election–related cycles. The pattern in news coverage, in turn, is mirrored by election–related cycles in personal and general expectations formed by the mass public. While the relevance of each of the linkages from elite expectations to news coverage to mass expectations is thus confirmed, our findings challenge the view that the link between mass expectations and voting intentions can be attributed mainly to the dissemination of elite forecasts to the general public. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for an understanding of the ability and functioning of mass electorates.     

Linking coalition attitudes and split-ticket voting: The Scottish Parliament elections of 2007

The Scottish Parliament elections of 2007 were the third to be held under the country’s mixed-member proportional system. As voters continue to adapt to the new system, we explore two aspects of its use: i) preferences for coalitions as opposed to single-party government, and ii) ticket-splitting. The two are considered together for two reasons. First, both can be seen as manifestations of a preference for multiple parties, and as a result they share a number of likely predictors in common. In empirical practice, however, we find that rather different factors predict the two variables: ticket-splitting looks to be based on strategic partisan or ideological calculation, whereas coalition attitudes are less about partisan interests and more about an overall view of the kind of policies and politics delivered by coalitions. Second, there is potential for a causal connection between our two dependent variables, and indeed we do find clear evidence of such an attitude–behaviour link: some voters appear to split their ticket precisely because they would prefer a coalition.     

United we stand: Constituency homogeneity and comparative party polarization

We argue that party polarization is a function of parties' distances, their internal homogeneity, and their relative sizes. While existing measures in political science incorporate the first and last feature, party homogeneity is typically neglected. Since virtually all polarization measures in one way or another incorporate distance, we suggest a simple way to adjust distance measures for party homogeneity. We then examine levels and trends of polarization in nine OECD countries using a newly collected data-set which includes left–right party positions based on both expert and mass surveys.     

The Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians in the Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2001

This article examines the voting motivations of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative party leadership election of 2001. By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary party ballot, this article seeks to test a series of hypotheses relating to the ideological disposition and political characteristics of the candidates vis-à-vis their electorate. The article examines how and why the eliminative parliamentary ballot ensured that the party membership was presented with a face-off between the europhile, Kenneth Clarke, and the eurosceptic, Iain Duncan Smith, and why the modernising and socially liberal Michael Portillo was rejected. It will demonstrate that while arguments based on ideological factors are valid, the political characteristics of age and career status were also significant motivational influences that contributed to the rejection of Portillo and the delaying of the modernisation of the Conservative party.     

Mapping the road to development: a methodology for scaling up participation in policy processes

Understanding local variability in context and mobilising local participation to define development agendas are widely accepted development strategies. There remain, however, significant challenges to the systematic and effective inclusion of local communities and households. Projeto MAPLAN, a pilot project in Ceará, Brazil, is a joint effort of the public sector and civil society designed to create a process of participatory development planning which integrates local-level contextual variations. In this effort, the use of a Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) stimulates the participation of community members in analysing their needs, goals, and priorities. The visualisation of these factors through easily understood maps facilitates communication and contributes to a democratic and transparent planning process, thus permitting the articulation of local priorities with the state-level planning apparatus. MAPLAN represents part of a shifting paradigm for rural development planning in the state and provides the tools for the effective inclusion of citizen voice in development policy.     

Eliciting preferences for land use alternatives: A structured value referendum with approval voting

This article discusses an experimental application of the Structured Value Referendum (SVR) with approval voting. The decision context is selecting the best land use for an undeveloped area of publicly owned suburban land in Richmond, British Columbia. Subjects were a random sample of 200 registered voters, selected in a "mall‐intercept" format. Subjects reviewed relevant information, completed a ballot, and then completed a survey about their satisfaction with the approval voting format. The results are of substantive interest for the land use decision, and show a high preference for an approval voting format. The results show ease in understanding the task and information provided, as well as a belief that this approach could be useful in guiding public policy. © 1999 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

MAGNA CARTA 1215: A GLORIOUS FAILURE

Along with the tradition of celebrating the importance of the Charter of 1215, there is a long tradition of skepticism concerning its purpose (which was not to achieve responsible government but to preserve the property of wealthy landowners), its force (it was annulled by the Pope and repudiated by the king within a few weeks), and even its success as a peace treaty (war broke out within a few months). The author will outline the reasons for skepticism, because we can only see what there is to celebrate in 2015, if we understand that the Charter of 1215 was the failed result of a reactionary armed tax rebellion by wealthy and powerful landowners, who were not trying to make a new constitution. What is there to celebrate? The author will address that question by asking why the Charter of 1215 was neither void (as the Pope asserted) for repugnancy to the King’s authority, nor voidable for duress. The author challenges the idea that the Charter of 1215 is the foundation of the rule of law in England, arguing that the rule of law goes back farther, and that the Charter of 1215 was very limited in its impact. But it did promote the rule of law in two ways: by giving new specificity to legal duties and restrictions that the king had already been subject to, and by highlighting the country’s need for effective processes for giving effect to those duties and restrictions.     

March of the chekists: Beria’s secret police patronage network and Soviet crypto-politics

Lavrentii Beria built up one of the most powerful patronage networks in Soviet history. Its success represents a unique case in Soviet history in which a regionally based secret police patron-client network, comprised primarily of representatives of ethnic minorities, took control first of the civilian leadership of one of the major regions of the Union, and then of the most powerful institution in the USSR, the national secret police, and subsequently became one of the main competing factions in the “crypto-politics” of the late-Stalin era. The fact that the Beria network emerged from the secret police gave it certain advantages in the political struggles of the period, but it also held weaknesses that played a role in Beria’s final undoing. The evolution and political struggles of Beria’s network also shed light on the inner workings of the competition among informal networks that made up the crypto-politics of the period. Using recent memoirs, new archival sources and interviews, this article will examine how Beria developed, managed and advanced his informal network, giving particular attention to the specific and unique outcomes that resulted from the rooting of this network in the secret police, at five critical junctures in Beria’s career.