The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

Rethinking ‘Crowding Out’ and the Return of ‘Private Affluence and Public Squalor’

This article traces the history of ‘crowding out’, and its use as a justification for austerity and state deflation from its origins in the 1920s to its latest post-2010 incarnation. It examines why governments have kept turning to austerity and continue to justify it on the grounds that public sector activity crowds out more productive private activity, despite the accumulated evidence that this traditional pro-market formulation has failed to deliver its stated goals. It examines three other embedded forms of crowding out that have been highly damaging—leading to weakened social resilience and more fragile economies—but which have been ignored by both governments and mainstream political economists.     

A method for calculating the strength of evidence associated with an earwitness's claimed recognition of a familiar speaker

The present paper proposes and demonstrates a method for assessing strength of evidence when an earwitness claims to recognize the voice of a speaker who is familiar to them. The method calculates a Bayes factor that answers the question: What is the probability that the earwitness would claim to recognize the offender as the suspect if the offender was the suspect versus what is the probability that the earwitness would claim to recognize the offender as the suspect if the offender was not the suspect but some other speaker from the relevant population? By “claim” we mean a claim made by a cooperative earwitness not a claim made by an earwitness who is intentionally deceptive. Relevant data are derived from naïve listeners' responses to recordings of familiar speakers presented in a speaker lineup. The method is demonstrated under recording conditions that broadly reflect those of a real case.     

Expanding the Borders of Common Article 3 in Non-International Armed Conflicts: Amending Its Geographical Application Through Subsequent Practice?

The geographic footprint of contemporary warfare often challenges the existing understanding of the term ‘non-international armed conflict’, a term not defined in international humanitarian treaty law. This article examines whether the opening lines of Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions include a geographical requirement. Controversy surrounds this question which until recently has received little attention. The customary interpretation of Common Article 3 is that it has a geographical scope of application limited to non-international armed conflicts which take place exclusively within the borders of a single member state (internal armed conflict). The 2016 ICRC Commentaries to the First Geneva Conventions challenges this traditional view and argues in favour of a broader interpretation of the scope of application of Common Article 3. This re-interpretation recently has gained traction in scholarship. The ICRC’s position serves as a possible solution to prevent a lacuna in humanitarian protection in situations where conflicts fit neither the understanding of ‘international armed conflict’ nor ‘internal armed conflict’. By evaluating the merits of the arguments posed by the ICRC, the article assesses whether the phrase ‘conflict not of an international character’, as included in Common Article 3, conclusively limits its geographical application to an armed conflict occurring within the boundaries of a single state.

     

Rapid screening for the detection and differentiation of γ-hydroxybutyrate using ion chromatography

The analysis of gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) is problematic because it is hygroscopic, it lacks a good UV chromophore, and it undergoes heat-induced cyclization. This paper presents a new method utilizing ion-exchange chromatography (IC) with conductivity detection. The simple sample preparation, rapid analysis time, and inorganic anion detection capabilities are all advantages over the current methods. The detection of inorganic salts (formed during GHB synthesis) gives insight into the synthetic route utilized and can aid in drug seizure comparison. The developed method has a detection limit for GHB anions of 0.57 mg/L and chloride of 0.22 mg/L. A comparison of this technique with a current gas chromatography-mass spectrometry technique is presented, and a t-test found that the two methods' results are not statistically different at the 99.9% confidence level demonstrating the merits of this fast, simple, and informative IC method as a routine screening tool.     

Public Administration as an Interdisciplinary Field: Assessing Its Relationship with the Fields of Law,Management, and Political Science

Public administration is an interdisciplinary field, building on a variety of disciplinary approaches and values. But how well does the field of public administration reflect those values and processes? In contrast to previous arguments regarding the degree to which the field does or should incorporate values and lessons from other academic disciplines, this study provides a systematic assessment of the field’s reliance on research and theory from the fields of law, management, and political science. An analysis of journal citations across these fields suggests that research in public administration is largely isolated from the three disciplines that are commonly believed to form its foundation.     

Depressive symptoms among working women in rural North Carolina: a comparison of women in poultry processing and other low-wage jobs

We report on the prevalence of self-reported depressive symptoms and associated factors among women employed in a poultry processing plant and a community comparison group of other employed women in northeastern North Carolina in the southern United States. The rural area is poor and sparsely populated with an African American majority. The largest employer of women in the area is a poultry processing plant. The goals of the analyses were 1) to evaluate whether women employed in poultry processing had a higher prevalence of depressive symptoms than other working women from the same geographic area, and 2) to evaluate factors which might be associated with depression among all of these working women, including specific characteristics of their work environment. Recruitment of participants (n=590) and data collection were by community-based staff who were also African American women. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Work organization factors were measured with the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ). Log-binomial regression was used to calculate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios. The prevalence of depressive symptoms, based on a CES-D measure of sixteen or more, was 47.8% among the poultry workers and 19.7% among the other working women (prevalence ratio=2.3). After adjusting for socioeconomic variables, health-related quality of life and coping style, the prevalence of depressive symptoms remained 80% higher among the poultry workers. The prevalence of symptoms was also higher among those who perceived low social support at work, hazardous work conditions, job insecurity, and high levels of isometric load. These factors were all more common among the women employed in the poultry plant. The concentration of this low-wage industry in economically depressed rural areas illuminates how class exploitation and racial discrimination may influence disparities in health among working women.     

Methyl 3-[3',4'-(methylenedioxy)phenyl]-2-methyl glycidate: an ecstasy precursor seized in Sydney, Australia

Five 44 gallon drums labeled as glycidyl methacrylate were seized by the Australian Customs Service and the Australian Federal Police at Port Botany, Sydney, Australia, in December 2004. Each drum contained a white, semisolid substance that was initially suspected to be 3,4-methylenedioxymethylamphetamine (MDMA). Gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC/MS) analysis demonstrated that the material was neither glycidyl methacrylate nor MDMA. Because intelligence sources employed by federal agents indicated that this material was in some way connected to MDMA production, suspicion fell on the various MDMA precursor chemicals. Using a number of techniques including proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H NMR), carbon nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((13)C NMR), GC/MS, infrared spectroscopy, and total synthesis, the unknown substance was eventually identified as methyl 3-[3',4'(methylenedioxy)phenyl]-2-methyl glycidate. The substance was also subjected to a published hydrolysis and decarboxylation procedure and gave a high yield of the MDMA precursor chemical, 3,4-methylenedioxyphenyl-2-propanone, thereby establishing this material as a "precursor to a precursor."     

Interracial contact and fear of crime

Despite a large literature on public views about crime, the racialization of crime, and the contact hypothesis, surprisingly little is known about how interracial friendships may influence Whites’ fear of crime. At the same time, and perhaps because no counterpart stereotype to that of “Blacks as criminals” exists, there has been little exploration of how such contact may influence Blacks’ fear of crime. To address these research gaps, this study built on prior theory and research and used data from an ABC News and Washington Post poll to test competing hypotheses about the effect of interracial contact on Whites’ and Blacks’ fear of crime, respectively. The analyses revealed that close interracial friendships are associated with increased fear of crime among Whites, decreased fear of crime among lower-income Blacks, and increased fear among higher-income Blacks. The implications for theory and research are discussed.