Environmental Affordances and Children in Post-conflict Belfast

This paper examines the experiences of children in post-conflict Belfast as peace and social change afford new opportunities at the same time as they regulate behaviours and spatial practices. Theoretically and empirically it draws on the concept of environmental affordances in order to map the experiences of 11-year-old children in separate inner-city segregated and middle-class communities. Whilst the recession has affected the pace of urban restructuring, children in the expanding mixed and largely middle-class city extract multiple advantages from their area in ways not available to segregated communities. The paper concludes by highlighting the implications for effective listening strategies in the management of divided communities.     

Deforestation in the Postwar Philippines,by David M. Kummer,Power from the Forest,by Marites Danguilan Vitug; Hope for the Seeds,by Vincent Busch

Abstract

During the second half of the twentieth century, the forests of the Philippines have been destroyed at an unprecedented rate. In 1934, 57.3 percent of the total land area of the Philippines was classified as forest land. Sixty years later that figure had dropped to only 13.5 percent. Many observers believe that parts of the country are on the brink of ecological collapse and that, if the country is to remain habitable, drastic action is needed to protect the remaining forests and rehabilitate the ones that have been destroyed. Furthermore, the destruction of the forests has been highly detrimental to many of the country's indigenous people, whose way of life depends on access to forest resources.     

Towards a new aid paradigm: South Africa as African development partner

As the largest African economy and the leading African aid-provider, with plans to establish an aid agency, South Africa is often ranked among the developing world's ‘emerging donors’. However, the country's development cooperation commitments are smaller in scope, scale and ambition than the aid regimes of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) or Gulf state donors. Given its limited resources and domestic socioeconomic challenges, South Africa prefers the role of ‘development partner’. In this role, South Africa's development cooperation in Africa has ranged from peacekeeping, electoral reform and post-conflict reconstruction to support for strengthening regional and continental institutions, implementing the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and improving bilateral political and economic relations through dialogue and cooperation. This article seeks to determine whether Pretoria's development cooperation offers an alternative perspective to the aid policies and practices of the traditional and large rising donors. We conclude that South Africa does not fit neatly the ‘donor’ category of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD's) Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and neither is Pretoria's aid-spending typically ‘ODA’ (official development assistance). Instead, with its new aid agency, South Africa occupies a unique space in Africa's development cooperation landscape. With fewer aid resources, but a ‘comparative advantage’ in understanding Africa's security/governance/development nexus, South Africa can play an instrumental role in facilitating trilateral partnerships, especially in Southern Africa.     

An exploratory study of women prisoners’ attitudes towards their self-harm and the use of medical skin camouflage

Self-harm is a growing problem in UK prisons with women self-harming more than men. Self-harm can leave permanent scarring. Research on scarring suggests that living with scars can lead to psychological difficulties; however, there is little research on the specific effects of self-harm scars. Medical skin camouflage (MSC) can be used to cover numerous skin conditions. The use of MSC for women in prison with self-harm scars has not been examined previously. A focus group involving 10 women prisoners aimed to (1) explore feelings about self-harm scars, (2) examine effects that scars have on life in prison and (3) examine thoughts on using MSC in prison. This group formed part of a larger project designed to test the feasibility and acceptability of MSC for women who self-harm in prison. A topic guide was created with two service user researchers with experience of self-harm in prison. The results have been divided into three themes: (1) feelings about self-harm scars, (2) covering self-harm scars and (3) attitudes towards MSC. Our findings indicate that women in prison tend to feel embarrassed and self-conscious about their scars, and the presence of scars affects their relationships within prison. The women were enthusiastic about MSC, suggesting that it has the potential to affect women’s well-being and ability to engage with others.     

Stereotypical Hate Crimes and Criminal Justice Processing: A Multi-Dataset Comparison of Bias Crime Arrest Patterns by Offender and Victim Race

Many hate crimes are not reported and even fewer hate crimes result in an arrest. This study investigates patterns of victim reporting and arrest for hate crimes in two parts. First, using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, we find that, controlling for offense severity, hate crimes are less likely than non-bias crimes to be reported to the police and that the police are less likely to take further action for hate crimes, compared to non-hate crimes. Second, we use data from the Pennsylvania Human Relations Commission and the National Incident-Based Reporting System to compare differences between types of hate crimes in the likelihood of crime clearance. We find that those hate crimes most likely to result in arrest are those that fit the profile of a “stereotypical” hate crime: violent incidents, incidents committed by hate groups, and incidents involving white offenders and black victims.     

When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions

An extensive literature addresses citizen ignorance, but very little research focuses on misperceptions. Can these false or unsubstantiated beliefs about politics be corrected? Previous studies have not tested the efficacy of corrections in a realistic format. We conducted four experiments in which subjects read mock news articles that included either a misleading claim from a politician, or a misleading claim and a correction. Results indicate that corrections frequently fail to reduce misperceptions among the targeted ideological group. We also document several instances of a “backfire effect” in which corrections actually increase misperceptions among the group in question.     

How Conditioning on Posttreatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do about It

In principle, experiments offer a straightforward method for social scientists to accurately estimate causal effects. However, scholars often unwittingly distort treatment effect estimates by conditioning on variables that could be affected by their experimental manipulation. Typical examples include controlling for posttreatment variables in statistical models, eliminating observations based on posttreatment criteria, or subsetting the data based on posttreatment variables. Though these modeling choices are intended to address common problems encountered when conducting experiments, they can bias estimates of causal effects. Moreover, problems associated with conditioning on posttreatment variables remain largely unrecognized in the field, which we show frequently publishes experimental studies using these practices in our discipline's most prestigious journals. We demonstrate the severity of experimental posttreatment bias analytically and document the magnitude of the potential distortions it induces using visualizations and reanalyses of real‐world data. We conclude by providing applied researchers with recommendations for best practice.     

When Killers Become Victims: Diversionary War,Human Rights,and Strategic Target Selection

The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, little attention has been given to the characteristics that make for a good target. We argue that US presidents choose targets that repress human rights since they are the easiest to sell to international and domestic audiences. By targeting repressive states US presidents can justify their use of force by cloaking their motivation in the language of human rights, responding to calls for intervention, pointing to the failure of international actors and institutions to resolve these problems, and building upon emerging norms that allow for intervention in repressive states. Updating US Use of Force data, we empirically test and find support for our hypothesis that presidents target human rights abusers when they face trouble at home. This paper contributes to target selection process by offering a complete theory of diversionary conflict accounting for cost/benefit calculation of presidents. Moreover, we believe that our findings reveal human rights practices’ role in international conflict, as well.     

The MAD Who Wasn't There: Soviet Reactions to the Late Cold War Nuclear Balance

What do nuclear weapons mean for the stability of the military balance? Mutually assured destruction (MAD) describes a stalemated balance of power where nuclear adversaries possess survivable retaliatory capabilities that ensure neither side can escape devastation in an all-out nuclear war. Moreover, the strong form of this empirical claim, which one might term “deep MAD,” is that mutual vulnerability is an inalterable and unchangeable condition. Drawing from recently declassified primary sources, we test several of deep MAD's premises and predictions on one of its foundational cases: Soviet nuclear policy during the second half of the Cold War. We find that Soviet leaders remained seriously concerned about the nuclear balance even in an allegedly deep-MAD environment where warheads numbered in the tens of thousands. Indeed, Soviet leaders were uncertain that they could indefinitely maintain a secure second strike despite strenuous efforts. The reason for these discrepancies, we argue, is that the nuclear balance is actually more malleable than commonly admitted. The possibility that MAD might one day be escaped meant that US attempts to manipulate the nuclear balance during the latter part of the Cold War could carry political weight, even while MAD was still possible.