Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations in 1996: The End of an Era

On 30 September 1996 the U.S. Advisory Commission on IntergovernmentalRelations (ACIR) closed its doors, ending thirty-seven yearsof advocacy for federalism and intergovernmental relations.A majority of members in the Congress felt that A CIR had becomeirrelevant to the issues facing them and agreed that littlewould be lost by terminating the commission. The Clinton administration,although supportive until near the end, withdrew its'supportout of displeasure with the commission's handling of the unfundedfederal mandates issue. The national associations representingstate and local governments were ambivalent. ACIR was no longerlooked to for solutions to the nation's intergovernmental relationsproblems. With the exit of ACIR, the federal government's lastresource for addressing broad intergovernmental issues—beyondthe confines of individual programs—is gone.     

On Correcting Biases in Self-Reports of Age at First Substance Use with Repeated Cross-Section Analysis

Household survey data on age at first use of alcohol, tobacco, marijuana,and hard drugs can be biased due to sample selection and inaccuraterecall. One potential concern is attrition, whereby individuals who getinvolved with substance use at an early age become increasingly less likelyto be surveyed in successive years. A comparison of data from the NationalHousehold Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) with data from a longitudinal studysuggested that attrition might have caused substantially less bias thandid forward telescoping, the inflating of age at first useover time. The evidence of forward telescoping was particularly pronouncedwith respect to age at first use of alcohol. This paper presents a procedurefor correcting the distribution of age at first use for forward telescoping(but not attrition) by viewing a portion of the NHSDA data collected insuccessive years as constituting a cohort study. Results are presented fromapplying this procedure with NHSDA data collected from 1982 to 1995 forrespondents born 1968–1973. The findings suggest that preventionprograms need to be introduced at an earlier age than would be indicatedby uncorrected retrospective data. Other implications are alsohighlighted.     

The Microbial Rosetta Stone database: A common structure for microbial biosecurity threat agents

Infectious microorganisms are important to multiple communities engaged in biodefense and biosecurity, including the agencies responsible for health, defense, law enforcement, agriculture, and drug and food safety. Many agencies have created lists of high priority infectious microorganisms to prioritize research efforts or to formally control the possession and distribution of specific organisms or toxins. However, the biological classification of infectious microorganisms is often complex and ambiguous, leading to uncertainty and confusion for scientists involved in biosecurity work. To address this problem, we created a database, known as the Microbial Rosetta Stone, which resolves many of these ambiguities and includes links to additional information on the microbes, such as gene sequence data and scientific literature. Here we discuss the efforts to coordinate organism names from pathogen lists from various governmental agencies according to biological relatedness and show the overlap of high-priority organisms from multiple agencies. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive coordination of pathogens, synonyms, and correct taxonomic names. The organized tables and visual aids are freely available at http://www.microbialrosettastone.com. This website provides a single location where access to information on a broad range of disease-causing organisms and toxins is available to members of the biosecurity community.     

Suspect/Foil Identification in Actual Crimes and in the Laboratory: A Reality Monitoring Analysis

Four reality monitoring variables were used to discriminate suspect from foil identifications in 183 actual criminal cases. Four hundred sixty-one identification attempts based on five and six-person lineups were analyzed. These identification attempts resulted in 238 suspect identifications and 68 foil identifications. Confidence, automatic processing, eliminative processing and feature use comprised the set of reality monitoring variables. Thirty-five verbal confidence phrases taken from police reports were assigned numerical values on a 10-point confidence scale. Automatic processing identifications were those that occurred “immediately” or “without hesitation.” Eliminative processing identifications occurred when witnesses compared or eliminated persons in the lineups. Confidence, automatic processing and eliminative processing were significant predictors, but feature use was not. Confidence was the most effective discriminator. In cases that involved substantial evidence extrinsic to the identification 43% of the suspect identifications were made with high confidence, whereas only 10% of the foil identifications were made with high confidence. The results of a laboratory study using the same predictors generally paralleled the archival results. Forensic implications are discussed.     

Mobile phase influence on electrospray ionization for the analysis of smokeless powders by gradient reversed phase high-performance liquid chromatography-ESIMS

The solution parameters associated with gradient elution reversed phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) were characterized by evaluating the electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESIMS) response of selected smokeless powder additives. Using direct liquid infusion, the positive ion ESIMS responses were determined for three general classes of powder constituents: dialkylphthalate acid esters, N,N'-dialkyl-N,N'-diphenyl urea based stabilizers and nitroso-, nitro-, and dinitro- derivatives of diphenylamine. The relative ESIMS intensities of the powder components were investigated as a function of three solution parameters: ammonium acetate concentration, pH, and percent methanol. The effect of the ammonium acetate concentration demonstrates that the electrolyte is required for efficient ionization and the ESIMS intensity was optimal at a concentration of 2mM for the selected compounds, except 2,4'-dinitrodiphenylamine. The aqueous solution pH, corresponding to the available protons in solution, did not have a significant effect on the ESIMS intensity of the analytes. The percent methanol was evaluated with both decreasing and constant electrolyte concentrations to demonstrate the effects of droplet stability and ion transfer into the gas phase. These findings were applied to the analysis of the selected smokeless powder additives using HPLC-ESIMS to illustrate increased sensitivity for the protonated molecules.     

Potential role of the MNC as an agent of technology transfer for economic development

There is evidence that the multinational corporation (MNC) and a developing nation may have a set of mutually beneficial goals. This article investigates the goals of the multinational corporation and the goals of a developing nation. It then illustrates the mutual benefits in terms of resource identification, and technology selection and development. A planning mechanism is suggested. Finally, some guide lines are offered that should enhance the probability of cooperation.     

A Bayesian Change Point Model for Historical Time Series Analysis

Political relationships often vary over time, but standard modelsignore temporal variation in regression relationships. We describea Bayesian model that treats the change point in a time seriesas a parameter to be estimated. In this model, inference forthe regression coefficients reflects prior uncertainty aboutthe location of the change point. Inferences about regressioncoefficients, unconditional on the change-point location, canbe obtained by simulation methods. The model is illustratedin an analysis of real wage growth in 18 OECD countries from1965–1992.