Potato‐led growth: The macroeconomic effects of technological innovations in Bolivian agriculture

Through the use of a Computable General Equilibrium model we measure the economy‐wide effects of improving the production technology of relatively non‐traded staples (potatoes, maize), import crops (wheat), and export crops (soybeans) in Bolivia. The results of the analysis suggest that technological innovations in the production technology of potatoes would benefit the Bolivian economy most. We discuss the reasons for the limited effects of technological innovations in tradeable crops.     

Value of DNA tests: a decision perspective

ABSTRACT: Before a Court of Law testifying in DNA‐evidence cases, scientists are often challenged with the idea that the more markers (loci) the better, i.e., why does the scientist not use 16 or more markers? This paper introduces a new perspective, decision analysis, to deal with the problem of the number of markers to type in a criminal context. The decision‐making process, which plays a key role in the routine work of a forensic scientist, consists of the rational choice, given personal objectives, between two or more possible outcomes when the consequences of the choice are uncertain. Simulated results support the hypothesis that analytical added value does not increase with the number of markers.     

Evaluation of preliminary isotopic analysis (13C and 15N) of explosives A likelihood ratio approach to assess the links between semtex samples

Currently, the use of isotopic ratio as corroborative evidence in criminal trials is explored. Beyond the analytical challenges that have been reported elsewhere, the crucial issue of the interpretation of analytical results in a fair and balanced way remains poorly documented. The aim of this paper is to propose a likelihood ratio approach for the evaluation of stable isotope data acquired from semtex samples. It will also lead to recommendations in relation to the acquisition of normalised international data.     

Handwriting evidence evaluation based on the shape of characters: application of multivariate likelihood ratios

A novel Bayesian methodology has been developed to quantitatively assess handwriting evidence by means of a likelihood ratio (LR) designed for multivariate data. This methodology is presented and its applicability is shown through a simulated case of a threatening anonymous text where a suspect is apprehended. The shape of handwritten characters a, d, o, and q of the threatening text was compared with characters of the true writer, and then with two other writers, one with similar and one with dissimilar characters shape compared to the true writer. In each of these three situations, 100 draws of characters were made and the resulting distributions of LR were established to consider the natural handwriting variation. LR values supported the correct hypothesis in every case. This original Bayesian methodology provides a coherent and rigorous tool for the assessment of handwriting evidence, contributing undoubtedly to integrate the field of handwriting examination into science.     

Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.