The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

Medellín: Body and Territory

International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue internationale de Sémiotique juridique - Medellín has been a privileged subject in Colombian cinema. In films whose stories take...     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

Y-STRs in forensic medicine: DNA analysis in semen samples of azoospermic individuals

ABSTRACT: The incidence of rape has increased, especially in metropolitan areas, such as the city of São Paulo. In Brazil, studies about it have shown that the majority of this type of crime is committed by the relatives and persons close to the victim. This has made the crime more difficult to be denounced, as only 10% of the cases are reported to competent police authorities. Usually, cytological exams are carried out in sex crime investigations. The difficulty in showing the presence of spermatozoa is frequent, but it does not exclude the presence of male DNA. The absence of spermatozoa in material collected from rape victims can be due to several factors, including the fact that the agressor suffers from azoospermia. This condition can be the result of a successful vasectomy. As the majority of DNA in the ejaculation sample is from spermatozoa, there is much less DNA to be analyzed. This study presents the application of Y‐STRs (DYS19, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, and DYS393) in DNA analysis of sperm samples from 105 vasectomized men. The study demonstrated a great variation in DNA concentration. DNA extraction and amplification was possible in all sperm samples even in the absence of spermatozoa. The same profile was observed, for each individual, from DNA extracted from blood, pre‐ and postvasectomy semen samples. The use of markers specific for Y chromosome in sex crime cases, especially in the absence of spermatozoa, is very important, mainly because in most situations there is a small quantity of the agressor's DNA in the medium and a large quantity of the victim's DNA.     

Treatment of Concurrent Substance Dependence,Child Neglect and Domestic Violence: A Single Case Examination Involving Family Behavior Therapy

Although child neglect and substance abuse co-occur in greater than 60% of child protective service cases, intervention outcome studies are deplorably lacking. Therefore, a home-based Family Behavior Therapy is described in the treatment of a woman evidencing child neglect, substance dependence, domestic violence and other co-occurring problems. Treatment included contingency management, self control, stimulus control, communication and child management skills training exercises, and financial management components. Results indicated improvements in child abuse potential, home hazards, domestic violence, and drug use, which were substantiated by objective urinalysis testing, and tours of her home. Validity checks indicated the participant was being truthful in her responses to standardized questionnaires, and assessors were “blind” to study intent. Limitations (i.e., lack of experimental control and follow-up data collection) of this case example are discussed in light of these results.     

Re-Defining Defamation: Psychological Sense of Community in the Age of the Internet

In the era of traditional media, courts typically relied upon geographic constraints, including where a plaintiff lived or worked, to determine the appropriate community in defamation cases. The rise of the Internet has dramatically changed society – easily and immediately linking users across geography while allowing the rapid spread of information through a variety of channels that pose a challenge to the traditional media model centered around editorial judgment and professional ethics. Thanks in part to its global reach, the Internet has allowed users to engage in both business and social relationships around the world. Because of this, a person's need for a good reputation can no longer be confined solely to location. As a result, this article argues that courts must begin to evaluate other factors when determining relevant community in online defamation cases, positing that courts should utilize factors associated with psychological sense of community theory.     

Defining A Product Market for Spanish-Language Broadcast Media: Lessons from United States v. Univision Communications,Inc. and Hispanic Broadcasting

In 2003, a media merger with dramatic content and policy implications went largely unnoticed. Little attention was paid to the transaction because it did not affect the majority; it affected the largest minority population in the United States: Hispanics. Although up to 65% of Hispanics prefer Spanish-language media, most broadcast media now come from one corporation, Univision. In approving the consolidation of Univision and Hispanic Broadcasting, the FCC ignored product market findings by the Department of Justice as well as its own policy precedent, which includes numerous exceptions for Spanish programming to promote content and ownership diversity. Consistent with the FCC's mandate to protect the public interest, a demand-side analysis is undertaken, positioning the audience as consumer. Industry evidence, product market thresholds, and ownership rules are applied to United States v. Univision, Inc. and Hispanic Broadcasting, with the conclusion that a separate product market must exist for Spanish language broadcast media.     

Is anyone listening? Mass and elite opinion cueing in the EU

The paper analyses the connections between elite and mass opinion in the European Union. It considers both the ways in which mass publics use heuristics supplied by political elites to form their EU opinions, and the ways in which political elites respond to the opinions of the mass publics they represent. The paper employs data from simultaneously-conducted elite and mass surveys carried out in sixteen European countries in 2007. The results show that masses and elites in Europe do appear to take cues from one another in forming their EU opinions. Political elites base their individual-level opinions on the average position taken by their respective (national) party supporters. Mass respondents base their opinions on the average position taken by elite members of the (national) party with which they identify.