Firearm examination: Examiner judgments and computer‐based comparisons

Forensic firearm examination provides the court of law with information about the source of fired cartridge cases. We assessed the validity of source decisions of a computer‐based method and of 73 firearm examiners who compared breechface and firing pin impressions of 48 comparison sets. We also compared the computer‐based method's comparison scores with the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments and assessed the validity of the latter. The true‐positive rate (sensitivity) and true‐negative rate (specificity) of the computer‐based method (for the comparison of both the breechface and firing pin impressions) were 94.4% and at least 91.7%, respectively. For the examiners, the true‐positive rate was at least 95.3% and the true‐negative rate was at least 86.2%. The validity of the source decisions improved when the evaluations of breechface and firing pin impressions were combined and for the examiners also when the perceived difficulty of the comparison decreased. The examiners were reluctant to provide source decisions for "difficult" comparisons even though their source decisions were mostly correct. The correlation between the computer‐based method's comparison scores and the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments was low for the same‐source comparisons to negligible for the different‐source comparisons. Combining the outcomes of computer‐based methods with the judgments of examiners could increase the validity of firearm examinations. The examiners' numerical degree‐of‐support judgments for their source decisions were not well‐calibrated and showed clear signs of overconfidence. We suggest studying the merits of performance feedback to calibrate these judgments.     

The post-Lisbon high representatives: an introduction

ABSTRACT

The Lisbon Treaty recently celebrated its 10th anniversary. The 2009 legal text was an attempt to enhance the unity, consistency and effectiveness of the EU’s action in an increasingly volatile world. And yet, the post-Lisbon time period has been characterised by multiple crises coming from the West, the East, the South, and even from within the EU. Against this backdrop, our Special Issue makes a systematic assessment of the EU's foreign policy post-Lisbon and of its evolution by focusing on the role of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR/VP). Assessing the post-Lisbon HR/VPs provides important insights on EU foreign policy processes over the past decade. In this introduction, we discuss the three research questions that guide our collection of articles, as well as our theoretical and empirical contribution to existing scholarly literature.     

Study of the brainstem, particularly the arcuate nucleus, in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) and sudden intrauterine unexplained death (SIUD)

Complete examination of the brainstem involves transverse serial 5-microm sections made throughout the entire brainstem. The number of serial sections varies from 360 in sudden intrauterine unexplained death (SIUD) to 600 in term fetuses to over 1400 sections in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) victims. The procedure is not applicable in all histopathological laboratories, owing to the need for additional technical personnel. The simplified procedure allows a remarkable reduction of the number of sections. The brainstem is divided into 3 blocks. The first, cranial block, extends from the border between the medulla oblongata and pons up to the upper pole of the olivary nucleus. The second, intermediate block, corresponding to the submedian area of the inferior olivary nucleus, has as reference point the obex and extends 2 to 3 mm above and below the obex itself. The third, caudal block, includes the lower pole of the inferior olivary nucleus and the lower adjacent area of the medulla oblongata. Examinations of the brainstems from 106 SIDS victims, 30 controls, and 51 stillborns underlined a remarkable variability, particularly of the arcuate nucleus. The simplified examination of the brainstem makes it possible to evaluate the structures, examining 3 specific levels, defined by morphologic reference points.     

The Shapley value analyzed under the Felsenthal and Machover bargaining model

In 1996, Felsenthal and Machover proposed a bargaining procedure for a valuable payoff in cooperative and simple games. They proved that the value underlying their bargaining scheme was the Shapley value by showing that it verifies the axioms that Shapley proposed for characterizing his value. They remarked that a direct proof of the result involves rather formidable combinatorial difficulties, but that it has some independent interest. In this paper, we prove such a combinatorial result and obtain a formula for the Shapley value that has a great potential to be extended to more general classes of games.     

Assessing the High Representative’s Role in Egypt during the Arab Spring

The 2009 Lisbon Treaty institutionalised an intergovernmental constitution for managing policies traditionally a matter of national sovereignty, such as foreign and defence policies. However, important innovations were introduced in the foreign policymaking structure to limit its intergovernmental logic, in particular, with regard to the role of the High Representative (HR). It was generally assumed that those innovations would have made development of a coherent EU foreign policy possible. Yet, in one of the most significant tests for the EU’s foreign and defence policies in the post-Lisbon era, namely the Egyptian crisis (2011-14), those reforms did not work as expected. Notwithstanding the innovations, the HR’s role was diminished by the European Council’s strict control over foreign policy toward Egypt. The lack of clear policy guidelines towards the issue of democratisation in the Arab world in the 2003 European Security Strategy, although partially mitigated by the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Barcelona Process/Union for the Mediterranean, made it even more difficult for the HR to bring a European perspective into the largely intergovernmental setting.     

Science and technology parks in Italy: main features and analysis of their effects on the firms hosted

We analyse the results of a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy in the spring of 2012 on Italian science and technology parks. First we describe the main features of science parks in Italy. Then we investigate whether they have been effective in improving the economic performance and innovative capacity of the firms located within them. We find a pronounced heterogeneity between science and technology parks, whose cooperation with public research institutions is characterized by physical proximity. Although the business situation of firms located in science and technology parks tends on average to be better than that of similar “non-park” firms, a difference-in-differences estimation shows that entering a science and technology park did not generally improve firms’ business performance and their propensity to innovate compared with external counterparts.     

The detection of clandestine graves in an arid environment using thermal imaging deployed from an unmanned aerial vehicle

The Middle East is one of the world regions that has frequently suffered from armed conflicts that resulted in mass burials. However, the detection of clandestine graves in such an arid environment by deploying remote sensing payload on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has received little attention. The present study used a UAV equipped with a thermal sensor aimed at narrowing down the search area of possible gravesites in the arid climate of Kuwait. The enclosed research area, which includes both control and experimental mass graves, was imaged for 18 months. The variation in topsoil temperature and soil moisture between the graves and their surroundings was evaluated. The results of the analysis demonstrated the effectiveness of thermal imaging techniques in detecting heat produced from buried sheep carcasses and detecting the change in grave soil moisture for our research environment for 7 and 10 months, respectively. The buried animals significantly influenced the topsoil temperature (p = 0.044), while the height from which the images were captured had an insignificant effect on the measured temperature within the range tested (p = 0.985). Furthermore, there was a negative correlation (−0.359) between grave temperature and the calculated soil moisture. The results from these cost- and time-effective search methods presented in this study confirm their potential for the detection of burial sites in an arid environment.     

Determination of vehicle speed from recorded video using the open-source software Kinovea

Video devices of different kind often record traffic accidents, including vehicle-pedestrian collisions and hit-and-run accidents. In these cases, the vehicle speed is valuable information because it can assist the investigators in an accident reconstruction. This paper examines the use of Kinovea, an open-source video annotation tool designed for sport analysis, to estimate vehicle speed in forensic videos. Kinovea does not require a complex methodology, and it can be used to make the calculation easily. A series of vehicle driving experiments using an appropriately calibrated speed radar system (so called Scout Speed) were carried out, and measurements were compared with the estimated speed. In controlled conditions, the comparison of Scout reference speed and calculated average vehicle speed by means of Kinovea found an average difference of 0.43 km/h, with a margin of error of ±0.64 km/h. In addition, further preliminary tests were carried out to check the reliability of the measurements under lower resolution conditions. Also, in these cases the calculations were in line with the ground truth. Therefore, in the tested conditions, Kinovea demonstrated to be an easy and reliable tool available for forensic video examiners. Further tests need to be conducted in order to address the applicability of the measurement technique with true CCTV/surveillance video recordings.