The cumulation problem

Nomination: A note on the cumulation problem by Dag Anckar, p.73
Reflections: The cumulation problem revisited by Gunnar Sjöblom, p.78     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) Predicts Violent Recidivism Among Criminal Offenders with Personality Disorders in Sweden

Psychopathy as conceptualized with Hare's Psychopathy Checklist Revised, PCL-R, has attracted much research during the 1990s. In the Scandinavian countries, few studies that empirically support the validity of North American risk assessment techniques in our regional context have been published. The purpose of this paper is to explore the predictive power of the PCL-R in a population of personality-disordered violent offenders subjected to forensic psychiatric evaluation in Sweden. Following release from prison (n = 172), discharge from forensic psychiatric treatment (n = 129), or probation (n = 51), a total of 352 individuals were followed for up to 8 years (mean = 3.7 years) with reconviction for violent crime as endpoint variable (base rate 34%). As the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic (AUC of ROC) analysis was calculated. For PCL-R scores to predict 2-year violent recidivism, AUC of ROC was .72 (95% CI: .66–.78). In addition, the personality dimension of psychopathy (Factor 1) and the behavioral component (Factor 2) both predicted 2-year recidivism significantly better than random: AUC of ROC .64 (95% CI: .57–.70) and .71 (95% CI: .65–.77), respectively. We conclude that psychopathy is probably as valid a predictor of violent recidivism in Swedish forensic settings as seen in previous North American studies.     

Swedish Bureaucracy in an Era of Change

Swedish bureaucracy combines some structural peculiarities founded on constitutional traits from the 17^th century with a clear formal division of labor between the national and local levels from the late 19^th century. These structures have mainly remained unchanged during periods of strong expansion in the first post-WWII decades and preconditions for shrinking during the 1980s and 1990s. In this article, we highlight how these changes have put stress on the bureaucracy and the public sector in general, and how demands for reform and adapting have been managed and viewed by the administrative and political camps, respectively. Social, educational, and political changes among Swedish bureaucrats and their roles are presented and analyzed. The national bureaucracy has "muddled through" and has not been subjected to radical reforms. Its working is still approved—though by no means regarded as sacred—by its administrative agents and its political principals.     

Measuring Political Competence: An Analysis with Reference to the Gender Gap*

Political alienation has been an important concept in theories of participation and democratic policies. Subjective political competence (‘internal political efficacy’) is considered to be a main element within the broader concept of political alienation, and an important determinant of political participation. The main purpose of this article is to test statistically the assumption of similarity in model structure for men and women, i. e. the relation between political competence and voting turnout. Our findings, generated on the basis of a common survey questionnaire item, show that subjective competence has different significance for men and women. For men, it has an expected substantive meaning. For women, it seems to be irrelevant with respect to expected sources and consequences. Given this apparent incomparability in measurement, we conclude that it is inappropriate to use identical models for men and women. It is also argued that political competence should be conceived of as containing a cognitive element, ‘objective political competence’. Empirical analysis shows that this concept is gender neutral with respect to political involvement.     

The ecological context of interpersonal violence: from culture to collective efficacy

This brief essay outlines the progression over the last 20 years of ecological theories of interpersonal violence. The period between the present and the early 1980s began with a revival of cultural explanations of violence that paralleled the introduction of the neo-conservative social science and then witnessed a rediscovery of deficits based structural explanations of interpersonal violence under the broad rubric of social disorganization theory. The essay concludes with a more optimistic appraisal of recent refinements of social disorganization theory that consider the mediating effects of collective efficacy on urban crime and interpersonal violence.     

Does public criticism Erode trust in the police? The case of Jari Aarnio in the Finnish news media and its effects on the public’s attitudes towards the police

A significant part of the general public’s observations and image concerning the police comes through the mass media. It has been assumed that one factor affecting the level of trust is the way the media handles the police. This article describes the media uproar that arose in Finland in November 2013 about police misconduct, and its effects on the public trust in the police. Two hypotheses were tested in the study: (a) negative publicity always decreases trust, and so, too, in this case; and (b) a change in trust is affected by the public’s independent interpretation of the publicity battle, in which case criticism might also increase trust. The study materials comprise the news coverage concerning the uproar and four opinion surveys collected after it occurred. The first survey was conducted immediately after the press conference of the case in week 48/2013 and the other ones in three-week intervals. The results show that following the uproar, compared to the earlier results of the European Social Survey, trust in the police did not decrease—on the contrary, it increased slightly. Our results suggest that in this case a large part of the audience has taken, to use the term of Stuart Hall, the oppositional position when interpreting negative news about the police.