Zum mietrechtlichen Inflationslinderungsgesetz

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Assessment of an attempt at a system of social indicators

Following the publication in 1968 ofIndicators of Social Change, a relatively large number of papers and books have appeared. This review-article systematically assesses some first attempts at the development of comprehensive systems of social indicators.     

Analyse von heroinproben mit der Kapillargaschromatographie. Vergleich von Glaskapillartrennsäule und gepackter Säule

In forensic examination of illicit heroin samples high-resolution capillary gas chromatography is compared with gas chromatography with packed columns. Separation efficiency, reproducibility of qualitative and quantitative determinations and stability of the columns are examined.A practical method with silylation of the samples is presented which allows safe identification and quantification of many various compounds contained in illicit heroin samples. The gas chromatographic data of 35 substances (opium alkaloids and synthetic derivatives, adulterants and diluents) are listed. The method also allows the quantification of morphine, opium, and cocaine samples.     

Party mandate theory and time-series analysis: a methodological comment

In 1990 Ian Budge and Richard Hofferbert published an article in support of “the doctrine of the party mandate”, using evidence from regression analyses relating the content of postwar US party platforms and governmental outputs in terms of yearly expenditure rates. Their approach was severely criticized by Gary King and Michael Laver (1993) but has been maintained by the authors in a subsequent extension of their analysis to include data from Australia, Canada and seven European States. The present article takes issue with both the approach followed by Budge and Hofferbert and the alternative approach recommended by King and Laver. It is argued that the trend problem has not been adequately dealt with and the formalization of the mandate model lacks conceptual consistency. Three major suggestions emerge from the discussion: (1) the formal mandate model should be extended to include a “divergence term” designed to separate positive from negative mandate effects; (2) the analysis should pay closer attention to the parameter restrictions that follow from the theoretical model; and (3) the regression equations should be interpreted heuristically in terms of “cointegration” or “causal-trends” models.     

Nationalstolz zwischen Patriotismus und Nationalismus?

In contemporary political sociology, a distinction is often made between “positive” and “negative” national pride (patriotism and nationalism). In this article, we examine whether this theoretical distinction can be verified empirically using data of the International Social Survey Programme 2003. In a first step, statistical tests of criterion validity and construct validity of the “nationalism” and “patriotism” scale are carried out. Thereafter, we present results of a qualitative pilot study in which respondents after having filled out the ISSP-questionnaire were asked to explain their answers and how they understood the questions. Finally, we tried to identify additional aspects of the topic which are, as a rule, not considered in conventional analyses, and to clarify parts of its conceptual logic by using prose fiction as a relevant source. Considering the inconsistencies both in the quantitative and in the qualitative analyses, the question arises whether a strict distinction between nationalism and patriotism is theoretically meaningful and whether the customary way of measuring these constructs is empirically valid.     

Carbon monoxide poisoning from indoor barbecues--incidents reported to the German-speaking Poison Information Centers and the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) in Berlin

From 2008 to the end of 2009 the Joint Poison Information Center (PIC) in Erfurt observed 7 incidents involving 17 persons (1 fatality) with signs of carbon monoxide poisoning from indoor barbecues (COFIB). To find out whether COFIB is a regional or a general phenomenon in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, all information about COFIBs recorded by the 11 German-speaking Poison Information Centers and the BfR Berlin were retrospectively analyzed for the period 2000 to 2009. In all, 60 COFIBs (accidental: 90.0 %, suicidal: 8.3%, reason unknown: 1.7%) involving 146 individuals were reported. The number of incidents increased from one case with 2 persons in 2000 to 18 cases involving 34 persons in 2009. The 146 victims (female 26.7%, male 27.4%, gender unknown 45.9%; adults 58.2%, children 24.7%, age unknown 17.1%) lived in 15 of the 16 federal states of Germany and in Switzerland. The highest number of victims was found in Bavaria (23), Brandenburg (18), and Baden-Wuerttemberg (18). The symptoms according to the Poisoning Severity Score were none to mild in 60.3%, moderate in 13.7%, severe in 11.6%, fatal in 6.9% and unratable in 7.5%. No clear correlation was found between the carboxyhemoglobin concentration and the severity of the symptoms. As a rising number of COFIBs often involving several individuals was observed from 2000 to 2009, the general public was informed about the risks of indoor barbecues.     

Economics,politics, and the cycle of presidential popularity

Does the economy hold the key to the ups and downs of the popularity of American presidents? This study, which is based on quarterly data from 1961 to 1980, employs stochastic models for time series (Box-Jenkins). For inflation, though not for unemployment, the findings confirm a significant effect at a lag of one quarter. The worries of political leaders about the inflation side of macroeconomic performance appear to be justified. Nevertheless, the influence of noneconomic factors such as international events, the Vietnam War, and Watergate proves even more potent. Moreover, presidential popularity is subject to a cycle whereby each president begins his service with an unearned popularity bonus that subsequently erodes. Economic performance is not found to be responsible for this inauguration-erosion cycle, but neither are rallies, wars, or scandal.