Proposed fiscal year 1997 budgets for social and behavioral science research

COSSA is the advocate in Washington for the social and behavioral sciences. He also chairs the Coalition for National Science Funding. He has testified before Congress many times and has written and spoken extensively on legislative-executive relations, the federal budget process and science policy, particularly as it affects the social and behavioral sciences. This report was prepared by the author with the assistance of the COSSA staff.     

The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916–1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.     

Risk compensation and the effectiveness of safety belt use laws: a case study of New Jersey

This paper investigates the effectiveness of New Jersey's mandatory belt use law (MUL) by testing specifically for: (1) a safety effect, and (2) a risk-compensation effect that could offset (in part) any safety impact. The main findings are that injury severity declined significantly in the 22 months following implementation of the MUL; but that accident frequency increased significantly. The increase in accidents may be explained only partially by increased driving mileage. These findings suggest that the real safety effect of the law may have been diluted by risk-compensating behavior.This paper is based on a study conducted for the New Jersey Office of Highway Traffic Safety by the Rutgers University Bureau of Economic Research. We are grateful to William Ascher and two referees for useful comments.     

Decentralizing water supply services in developing countries: Factors affecting the success of community management

This article examines the problem of extending access to potable water through conventionally controlled government services and describes the roles of non-governmental organizations and community management associations in improving service delivery and maintaining local water systems. Six sets of factors that are crucial to the success of community management are identified: adequate incentives, sufficient skills and resources, appropriate processes for water systems operations and maintenance, effective interorganizational relationships, appropriate technology, and effective systems of monitoring, evaluation and feedback. The components that must be taken into consideration in designing and implementing programmes for decentralizing water supply systems through community management are set out.     

Win,lose, or withdraw: A categorical analysis of career patterns in the House of Representatives, 1948–1978

The literature on incumbency advantage has focused on margin as an indicator for electoral security. But while electoral margin is a goodex ante measure, it is a poorex post measure of security. Further, existing work has not integrated the choice of retirement with changes in the level of security. To improve the specification and definition of “marginality”, a multinomial LOGIT model is proposed where the dependent variable is categorical. Account is therefore taken of all the ways a Representative's term in office can end, including reelection, defeat, retirement, or pursuit of other office. The sample includes all U.S. Representatives elected for the first time between 1948 and 1978. The results indicate that (1) margin in the previous election is a significantex ante proxy for the probability of electoral defeat, and (2) while the electoral safety of all incumbents in the House has been increased, the increases are greater for members elected for the first time in the period since 1965.     

The Distributional Politics of Fiscal Adjustment: A Case Study of Four Northeastern States

The federal Tax Reform Act of 1986 and an unexpected economic downturn soon thereafter resulted in a divergence between actual and anticipated revenues at the state level. To cope with the resulting budget deficits, states increased taxes, decreased expenditures, or both. This paper looks at the decisions made in four Northeastern States-New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.     

B. Reviews: general

AN INTRODUCTION TO ISLAM. By GERHARD ENDRESS. Translated by CAROLE HILLENBRAND. Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1988. ix + 293pp. H/B £29.95, P/B £9.50.

A HISTORY OF ISLAMIC SOCIETIES. By IRA M. LAPIDUS. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1988. 1002pp. £35.00.

THE GREAT POWERS AND THE MIDDLE EAST 1919–1939. Edited by URIEL DANN. (Collected Papers Series of the Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.) New York and London, Holmes and Meier Publishers, Inc., Africana Publishing Company, 1988. 434pp. $59.50 cloth.

THE RENTIER STATE. Edited by HAZEM BEBLAWI and GIACOMO LUCIANI. London, Croom Helm for Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome, 1987. 240pp.

DEVELOPMENT, ADMINISTRATION AND AID IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By GERD NONNEMAN. London and New York, Routledge, 1988. 203pp. Figures, tables. £25.00.

DOMESTIC POLITICS AND REGIONAL SECURITY: JORDAN, SYRIA AND ISRAEL. THE END OF AN ERA? By VALERIE YORKE. Aldershot, Brookfield ISA, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Gower. 1988. Published for the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 432pp. £35.00

THE BIRTH OF THE PALESTINIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM. By B. MORRIS. Cambridge, Cambridge U.P., 1988. 400pp. £30.00.

ETHNIZITÄT UND MACHTKONKURRENZ IN INTER‐ARABISCHEN BEZIEHUNGEN: DER SYRISCH‐IRAKISCHE KONFLIKT UNTER DEN BA'ATH‐REGIMEN. By EBERHARD KIENLE. Berlin, Verlag Das Arabische Buch, 1988. 63pp.

THE SHATT‐AL‐ARAB BOUNDARY QUESTION: A LEGAL REAPPRAISAL. By KAIYIN HOMA KAIKOBAD. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1988. xix, 142pp. 10 maps and figures, table of legal cases. £25.00.

IRAN AND IRAQ AT WAR. By S. CHUBIN and C. TRIPP. London, I.B. Tauris, 1988. 328pp. £19.50.

THE ARAB GULF AND THE ARAB WORLD. Edited by BRIAN R. PRIDHAM. London, Croom Helm, 1988. xv, 302pp. £35.00.

THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL: RECORD AND ANALYSIS. By R.K. RAMAZANI. Charlottesville, University Press of Virginia, 1988. 256pp. $45.00.

SAUDI ARABIA IN THE OIL ERA—REGIME AND ELITES: CONFLICT AND COLLABORATION. By MORDECHAI ABIR. London, Croom Helm, 1988. xix, 247pp. £25.00.

THE IMAMATE TRADITION OF OMAN. By J.C. WILKINSON. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1987. xii, 415pp. £40.00.

MUSADDIQ, IRANIAN NATIONALISM AND OIL. Edited by JAMES A. BILL and ROGER LOUIS. Austin, University of Texas Press & London, Tauris, 1988. 358pp.

STATE, DEMOCRACY AND THE MILITARY: TURKEY IN THE 1980s. Edited by METIN HEPER and AHMET EVIN. Berlin and New York, Walter de Gruyter, 1988. 265pp.

WHAT IS TO BE DONE: THE ENLIGHTENED THINKERS AND AN ISLAMIC RENAISSANCE. By ALI SHARI'ATI. Edited and annotated by FARHANG RAJAEE; Foreword by JOHN L. ESPOSITO. Houston, Texas, Institute for Research and Islamic Studies, 1986. xix, 181pp. $25.95 (hardback), $11.95 (paperback).

THE QUR'AN IN ISLAM: ITS IMPACT AND INFLUENCE ON THE LIFE OF MUSLIMS. By ‘ALLAMAH SAYYID M.H. TABATABA'I. Translated by ASSADULLAH AD‐DHAAKIR YATE; Foreword by SEYYED HOSSEIN NASR. London and Blanco, Texas, Zahra Publications, 1987. 118pp. $14.95.

ISLAMIC SPIRITUALITY: 1. FOUNDATIONS. Edited by SEYYED HOSSEIN NASR. (World Spirituality; an Encyclopedic History of the Religious Quest, vol. 19.) London, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1987. xxix, 450pp. 35 monochrome illustrations. £39.50.

THE MANTLE OF THE PROPHET: RELIGION AND POLITICS IN IRAN. By ROY MOTTAHEDEH. Harmondsworth, Middlesex, Peregrine Books, 1987. 418pp. £6.95.

EL PALACIO OMEYA DE AMMAN I. LA ARQUITECTURA. By ANTONIO ALMAGRO GORBEA. Madrid, Instituto Hispano‐Arabe de Cultura, 1983. 207pp., including an English and an Arabic summary (30pp., unnumbered), 63 plates, 52 figures, 39 loose‐leaf drawings.