Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds

Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.     

Australian Aboriginal Property Rights as Issues of Indigenous Sovereignty and Citizenship

Aboriginal Australians have traditionally enjoyed little protection from the law. The matter of land has been at the heart of white settler/Aboriginal relations since the nation was first founded. It is only recently that recognition has been given to the land rights of Australian indigenous people. This recognition was finally made at the property law level in 1992 through the High Court decision in Mabo v. Queensland (n. 2) ([1992] 175 CLR 1). The 1993 High Court decision in The Wik Peoples v. Queensland ([1996] 71 ALJR 173) reinforced that recognition. It did so through the principle that pastoral lessees' and native title holders' rights might co-exist except that, in the event of any inconsistency, the pastoralists' rights were to prevail, provided pastoral activity was being pursued. The most recent legal change is the parliamentary revision of the Native Title Act so that the Wik co-existence principle was put to rest, mainly through permitting the State governments to upgrade pastoral holdings to a form of freehold, thus immunising them from native title claims, and minimising the payment of compensation. In this paper we argue that the country must consider what has been lost in this about-turn from the recognition of native title to land in Mabo . We argue that the nation must consider the emphases in the Mabo judgments upon the significance of international law and the need for the common law not to be locked into a racist past. From that point, we contend for the need to recognise not only native title to land but what lies beyond that: indigenous political and human rights.     

社会记忆研究:从“集体记忆”到记忆实践的历史社会学

尽管有多个学科和不同背景的学术研究领域做了大量的工作,社会记忆研究仍然是一个缺乏固定范式的、没有中心的、跨学科的事业。要纠正这种相对混乱的局面,我们有必要推进多项工作,将社会记忆视为一个有用的传统和一个可加工的范围,为将来的工作奠定基础。我们需要追溯这项事业的家世,回顾围绕社会记忆之基本定义产生的争论,勾勒出历史的视角,并评价与社会记忆静力学和动力学有关的社会学理论。     

WOMEN, DIVORCE, AND ECONOMIC RISK

This article examines the context of mothers' economic risk postdivorce. Data collected from 212 divorced custodial mothers and 225 divorced noncustodial fathers are used to illustrate income dynamics pre- and postdivorce as well as differences in income distribution between men and women. Findings confirm trends uncovered in other studies: Women's economic decline appears to be more pronounced than men's. Risk factors encompassed by various systemic levels are summarized and discussed as a context for understanding and intervention. Specific recommendations for policy are offered.     

Multiple objectives in environmental protection programs

This research demonstrates the need for and the usefulness of a multi-dimensional approach to the management of environmental programs. While the thrust of the paper is toward environmental quality programs the conceptual development is appropriate for many public sector programs. The paper describes an experiment in the determination of multi-dimensional objectives within three programs in a state environmental quality program. In addition, measures of effectiveness, based on the multi-dimensional objectives, are proposed as relevant measures of program effectiveness.This research was sponsored in part by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources under contract SPC 412070 and in part by the Center for the Study of Environmental Policy, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania.