Die politischen Konsequenzen der niedrigen Wahlbeteiligung bei der Europawahl 2009

If electoral abstention is linked to party preferences, low turnout—as witnessed in European Parliament elections—may hurt some parties and benefit others. In order to assess this possibility, we compare, in the member states of the EU, parties’ vote shares in the 2009 European Parliament elections with the results that would have been obtained had turnout reached the level of national general elections. We find that the effects of low turnout are minimal, and that—except for a single seat—higher turnout would not have resulted in a different composition of the European Parliament.     

Influences of accent and ethnic background on perceptions of eyewitness testimony

Abstract

The purpose of the present work was to investigate the effect two eyewitness factors, accent and ethnic background, have on the perceived favorability of eyewitness testimony and case disposition in criminal trials. Six variations of testimony were created and videotaped. The videotapes varied by accent and ethnic background of the eyewitness; the testimony text was identical. Four eyewitness favorability variables, (a) credibility, (b) judgment of accuracy, (c) deceptiveness, and (d) prestige, as well as their relationship to case disposition, were measured. One hundred and seventy-four undergraduate participants viewed one of the six videotapes. Results indicate that there was a significant main effect of accent for the four eyewitness favorability variables. Accent by ethnic background interactions also yielded significant findings for the four variables as well as for the defendant's degree of guilt. Results were interpreted using the Elaboration Likelihood Model. The potential importance of these results for judicial settings is discussed.     

美国国会议员访台现象研究(1997～2008)

台湾地区是美国国会议员访问最频繁的地区之一。本文分析了从1997年到2008年的美国国会议员访台记录分布及其决定因素,获得了如下主要发现:第一,美国国会议员访台频次变动受台湾岛内政治变动和美国国会选举周期影响,但以前者更为重要;第二,《与台湾关系法》赋予美国国会及其议员干预台湾问题的权力,是造成美国国会议员、特别是外交事务、军事、情报等委员会成员频繁访台的根本原因;第三,意识形态、选区利益、经贸关系等对美国国会议员访台也产生了一定的影响。     

地区间主义研究:成就与缺失

地区间主义是国际关系的新实践,同时也正在成为国际关系研究的新领域。国外学术界围绕地区间主义的内涵与外延、动力与功能以及其与地区主义和多边主义的关系进行了初步的研究。尽管国内学者在该领域的研究仍在相当程度上延续着西方的议程,然而也有部分学者试图在研究对象、研究方法和研究取向上做出超越。就该议题的未来发展而言,比较分析和理论化应当是两大基本趋势。而对中国学者来说,面临的最大挑战在于把握地区间主义研究的共性与个性,并善于从已有的研究议程中提炼出符合中国国家利益和国际战略需求的新的议程。     

The Effect of Ministerial Instability on Government's Mandate Fulfilment: Evidence from the Portuguese Case

Research on the fulfilment of electoral promises has been particularly fruitful over the past decades. Most of it focused on examining pledge fulfilment at the cabinet level, and little emphasis was placed on the reasons underlying the level of compliance. As a consequence, core factors in explaining pledge fulfilment have not yet been explored. One such factor might be instability in a government's internal functioning. We argue that ministerial instability is relevant for explaining a government's broken promises, and that its importance increases at the junior minister level and among the most salient ministries. Relying on data on the fulfilment of electoral promises and ministerial instability in Portugal between 1995 and 2019, backed by interviews with former ministers and junior ministers, we provide evidence that the fulfilment of electoral promises is significantly influenced by portfolio volatility, particularly at the junior ministerial level and in the most important ministries.     

Challenging Bipolarity: The Socialist International and the ‘Chilean Democratic Cause’ during the Cold War

This article analyses, the Socialist International's (SI) new international positioning strategies from a transnational perspective, through its relationship with the Chilean cause in the context of the Cold War détente. Focus will be placed on the SI's strong commitment to the Chilean democratic cause after the coup and its sustained activism during the military regime. Drawing from primary sources in various international archives, this article's main goal is to shed light on the SI's positioning regarding Latin America as a way to challenge the bipolar order.