Weighted Content Analysis of Political Advertisements

This article proposes weighted content analysis as a methodological extension of traditional (unweighted) content analysis of political advertising. Weighted content analysis distinguishes between political ads that were produced but not aired and ads that actually aired in a particular media market. To illustrate the advantages of weighted content analysis, this article examines the 1996 presidential campaign in Columbus, Ohio. The tone of 132 presidential campaign ads produced by both candidates is compared with the tone of the 2,522 ads that aired on the three major network affiliates in Columbus. The price of the ad buy is used as an alternative weight that takes into account audience size and thus allows a further distinction between aired and watched ads. Both weighting procedures show that Republican advertising in 1996 in Columbus was more negative than Democratic advertising during the fall campaign, a result that remains undetected by unweighted content analysis. The article concludes by describing three different ways to obtain weighting data: political files kept by television stations and cable providers, commercial tracking data, and internal campaign records.     

Who Cuts Back and When? The Politics of Delays in Social Expenditure Cutbacks, 1980–2005

This article investigates the politics of delays in social spending cutbacks in OECD democracies. In the context of fiscal austerity, policymakers are assumed to have a strong incentive to manipulate the timing of cutbacks strategically. Applying event history analysis to small and large cutbacks in 21 mature welfare states, the authors test whether partisanship, electioneering and institutional constraints contribute to explain the timing of cutbacks. Macro-economic determinants such as worker productivity, economic growth and unemployment are found to be more important than these political variables. However, left-wing governments and welfare states with more institutional rigidity or a greater degree of contribution financing do tend to delay welfare cutbacks, while cabinets that have recently changed their party composition implement cutbacks earlier.     

Diagnosis of a captive-bolt injury in a skull extremely destroyed by fire

The authors report on a combined suicide of a 71-year-old farmer who fired a shot to his forehead with a livestock stunner before burning himself. As the fire was fueled by a pile of firewood it burnt for many hours, thus, causing subtotal incineration of the body. The remaining bones were calcined and reduced to a residual mass of only 3 kg. In spite of the extreme destruction, a circular bone defect corresponding to the site where the captive-bolt had entered the skull could be identified in the frontal squama. The example of this suicide is used to illustrate the problems of distinguishing between mechanical and thermal fractures. As expected, the attempted isolation and amplification of both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA for the purpose of identification was not successful.     

Vaccine alliance building blocks: a conjoint experiment on popular support for international COVID-19 cooperation formats

The design principles of institutions that visibly and significantly affect citizens’ lives are likely to be politically salient. Popular support for these principles is in turn crucial for institutional viability and effectiveness. Transboundary pandemics are a case in point. Understanding citizens’ preferences regarding the design of international alliances set up to mass-produce and distribute vaccines is likely to determine citizens’ subsequent cooperation with vaccination campaigns. This study explores Germans’ preferences for international COVID-19 vaccine alliance design principles. We conducted a conjoint experiment at a recurring cognitive moment in many pandemics’ cycles, between the initial outbreak and a more devastating but still-unknown second wave, when infection rates were very low, yet no policy solutions had been developed. We analyzed preferences regarding four building blocks: (1) alliance composition (size; EU-centrism), (2) alliance distribution rules (joining cost; vaccine allocation), (3) vaccine nationalism (cost per German household; coverage in Germany) and (4) vaccine producer confidence (origin; type). Distribution rules, political ideology and personal perceptions of pandemic threat matter little. But a larger alliance size and dominant EU-country composition increase alliance support. And vaccine nationalism is key: support increases with both lower costs and larger coverage for own-nation citizens. Moreover, support goes down for Chinese and American producers and increases for Swiss and especially own-nation producers. In sum, a realist and technocratic outlook is warranted at the cognitive stage in pandemic cycles when no solutions have been found, yet the worst already seems to be over, as national self-interest reigns supreme in popular attitudes.

     

Forensic analysis of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) by HPLC--statistics and extreme CDT values

Background

Carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) is the most specific serum marker of chronic alcohol abuse so far. There is little knowledge about extreme CDT values of >20% and the more >30% CDT.

Methods

Serum CDT/transferrin ratios from 19,236 serum samples sent to our laboratory for routine CDT analysis were determined by HPLC. About 75% of these serum samples were from traffic or employment medicine investigations. A CDT value frequency histogram was computed and extreme CDT values were clinically validated.

Results

Fourteen thousand four hundred and sixty-one CDT results were normal (≤1.7%) and 4775 increased (1.8–36.9% CDT). Most frequent normal and increased results were 0.9% CDT (n = 1964) and 1.8% CDT (n = 356). CA. 70% of the pathological results were between 1.8% and 5.0% CDT, ca. 88% between 1.8% and 10.0% CDT, and 98% between 1.8% and 20.0%. CDT values >20.0% appeared in 79 cases and results >30.0% in two cases (33.8% and 36.9%). In each case of CDT values >20%, chronic alcohol abuse was the underlying cause as confirmed by anamnestic exploration.

Conclusions

CDT/transferrin ratios are usually <20%. Higher values can appear in rare cases. CDT results >30% can be due to alcohol abuse but should be considered as remarkable single observations. Visualization of the transferrin isoform patterns by HPLC allows the detection of pathological transferrin isoform patterns and of genetic transferrin variants. This is essential for a reliable interpretation of (extreme) CDT values. CDT analysis by immunoassays without physico-chemical confirmatory analysis is no longer acceptable.     

Why football players may benefit from the ‘shadow of the transfer system’

Transfer restrictions have a long tradition in professional sports but came under heavy attack in recent years (e.g. Bosman ruling, Monti system). Based on a bargaining model with stochastic player productivity, we show that less restrictive transfer rules reallocate ex post bargaining power from players to clubs. This reallocation is efficient and in the ex ante self-interest of players. The right to charge transfer fees enables clubs to insure their players. The players, in turn, benefit by converting risky future income into riskless current income. Overall, player utility is higher under more than under less restrictive transfer rules.

Effects of Insurance on Child Labour: Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Behavioural Changes

In this paper we analyse possible effects of insurance on child labour. First, we develop a theoretical model that separates effects of insurance with and without a shock taking place. We then empirically test the hypotheses derived from the model by analysing the extension of a health insurance product in urban Hyderabad in Pakistan. Consistent with the theoretical model we develop in this paper, the reduction in child labour caused by the extension is largely due to an ex-ante feeling of protection as opposed to an ex-post shock-mitigation effect.     

Town twinning and political support

Does town twinning foster citizens’ political support of the European Union? This study investigates the relation, which is maintained in politics and academics but still calls for empirical evidence. We distinguish between two levels of analysis, namely individual and context level, and differentiate in accordance with David Easton’s modes of political support specific from diffuse support. The corresponding hypotheses are tested with a unique dataset, which embraces survey findings of more than 12,000 respondents from 28 randomly selected municipalities in Germany. The main conclusions that emerge from the analysis are: First, town twinning does promote political support of the European Union on the individual level. Second, there are positive effects on specific and diffuse support. Thirdly, there is no relationship between local activity in twinning affairs and political support.