The dynamics of candidate evaluations and vote choice in 2008: looking to the past or future?

In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.     

Book Excerpt

Knowing Too Much: Why the American Jewish Love Affair with Israel Is Coming to an End (forthcoming, 2011), Chapter 3, “A Conspiracy So Immense”     

Mutual Best Friendship Involvement, Best Friends�� Rejection Sensitivity, and Psychological Maladaptation

Rejection sensitivity (RS) refers to the tendency to anxiously expect, readily perceive, and overreact to experiences of possible rejection. RS is a clear risk factor for psychological maladaptation during early adolescence. However, there is growing evidence of significant heterogeneity in the psychological correlates of RS. To investigate when RS poses the greatest psychological risk during early adolescence, this study examines mutual best friendship involvement (or lack thereof) and the best friends?? RS as potential moderators of the associations between RS and psychological difficulties. Participants were 150 7th grade students (58 boys; M age = 13.05 years) who nominated their best friends, and reported on their RS, social anxiety, and self-esteem. Results from a series of hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that mutual best friendship involvement and best friends?? RS were both significant moderators when fear of negative evaluation (a type of social anxiety) served as the dependent variable. The association between RS and fear of negative evaluation was stronger for adolescents without mutual best friends than adolescents with mutual best friends. In addition, the association between RS and fear of negative evaluation was the strongest for adolescents whose best friends were highly rejection sensitive (relative to adolescents whose best friends were moderately or low in RS). Findings highlight the importance of considering best friendships in studies of RS and strongly suggest that, although having mutual best friendships may be protective for rejection sensitive adolescents, having a rejection sensitive best friend may exacerbate difficulties. The significance of friends in the lives of rejection sensitive adolescents is discussed as well as possible applied implications of the findings and study limitations.     

Leaders, voters and activists in the elections in Great Britain 2005 and 2010

Discussion of the relationship between parties and the electorate is often based on the notion of partisan constituencies, that parties adopt policy positions that correspond to the average position of the party supporters. In contrast, the Downsian “spatial model” assumes that parties are purely opportunistic and maneuver to gain as many votes as possible. A third, more empirical model, based on the early work of Stokes, assumes that voter choice is based on the evaluation of each of the party leader’s competence or ability to deliver policy success. Such an evaluation can be provided by individual voter overall assessment in terms of the leaders’ character traits.This paper attempts to relate these three classes of models by examining the elections in Great Britain in 2005 and 2010. Using the British Election Study, we construct spatial models of these elections in Great Britain as well as in the three regions of England, Scotland and Wales. The models incorporate the electoral perceptions of character traits. We compare the equilibrium vote maximizing positions with the partisan positions, estimated by taking the mean of each of the parties voters’ preferred positions. We define an equilibrium to be a stable attractor if the vote share at the equilibrium exceeds the share at the partisan position by a significant proportion (determined by the implicit error of the stochastic model). We infer that none of the equilibria are stable attractors, and suggest that the partisan positions are also preferred by the party activists, the key supporters of each party.     

Evaluation of the use of pharmacological treatment with prisoners experiencing high levels of hypersexual disorder

This paper presents an evaluation of the impact of pharmacological treatment in reducing hypersexual disorder in adult males who have been incarcerated following conviction for a sexual offence. The evaluation compares two types of pharmacological treatment, one of which is part of the current NICE guidance for treatment of hypersexuality (Antiandrogens), whilst the other type (SSRIs) is off-label use in the UK for hypersexuality. The participant pool comprised 127 adult male prisoners serving sentences for sexual offences in a UK prison. Participants had been voluntarily referred for pharmacological treatment to manage hypersexual disorder. The results demonstrated a significant reduction of hypersexual disorder pre- and post-medication and contribute to the evidence base for the use of pharmacological treatment with individuals for whom hypersexual disorder may be a salient factor in their offending. Limitations of the current research are discussed.     

From peasant community to production co‐operative: An analysis of recent government policy in Peru

Discussions concerning rural development in Peru since the military coup of 1968 have focused mainly on the large‐scale land reform programme under which the coastal estates and many of the livestock and agricultural haciendas in the highlands have been expropriated [Petras and Rimensnyder, 1970, Quijano, 1971, and Hobsbawm, 1971]. This has tended to deflect interest from other important aspects of rural development policy. It would be wrong to assume that, prior to the latest reforms, the Peruvian scene consisted almost entirely of latifundia agriculture, for a substantial proportion of the productive agricultural land in both the highlands and coastal valleys was, and remains, in the control of smallholder farmers, or is held under communal ownership by peasant communities. In an attempt to incorporate these non‐hacienda zones into the plan for national development [Plan del Peru: 1971–1975], the government is encouraging the expansion of smallholder commercial production, the establishment of new, or the improvement of existing, marketing and servicing co‐operatives, and is promoting a re‐organisation of peasant communities with the long‐term objective of transforming them into modern production or multipurpose co‐operatives. This paper outlines recent legislation aimed at reforming these peasant communities and examines the social consequences of the new policy, particularly as it affects smallholder regions. We address ourselves mainly to two problems: Firstly, we wish to assess the effectiveness of the policy in transferring the benefits of community resources to the poorer strata of the rural population, a central aim of the reforms; and secondly, we want to isolate the factors which inhibit the emergence of viable modes of co‐operative organisation and which limit the role that community institutions can play in promoting local development. It is necessary in a paper of this length to confine ourselves mainly to an analysis of the situation in one district of the Mantaro Valley of Central Peru—that of Matahuasi—for which we have detailed data; although many of our conclusions, we believe, raise problems of general significance for interpreting the types of development strategies and priorities favoured by the present government.     

Muted criticism in Egypt (Part 2)

Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, is the dominant player in Arab‐Israeli and inter‐Arab affairs. Close scrutiny of political and intellectual trends in Egypt tells us much about these trends throughout the Arab world. Reporting from a country such as Egypt, which has an authoritarian form of government, presents problems for journalists and researchers. There is much criticism of the government, but it is muted, often lying just below the surface. One must try to discern the underlying political reality without seeming to criticize the government. Journalists who are considered pro‐Israel are viewed with suspicion. Journalists who ask probing questions may be classified as pro‐Israel. This study examines the complex fabric of Egyptian political reality through interviews with prominent intellectuals and government leaders. The interviews focus on crucial areas of foreign policy.     

Civil society and trust building in Cyprus

Civil society in Cyprus has a key role to play in creating spaces for dialogue and cooperation between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities. Recent research by the International NGO Training and Research Centre (INTRAC) has identified how these processes have contributed to trust and peacebuilding on the island, the challenges facing organisations engaged in this work, and how these were being addressed. It demonstrates that important steps are being taken by civil society organisations to overcome prejudices and break down barriers, and that by further developing links with local and international policymakers and institutions, civil society could be a stronger player in the peace process.

Renforcement de la société civile et de la confiance à Chypre

La société civile chypriote a un rôle clé à jouer dans la création d'espaces propices au dialogue et à la coopération entre les communautés turque et gréco-chypriote. Des recherches récemment menées par l'International Training and Research Centre (INTRAC) ont identifié la manière dont ces processus ont contribué au renforcement de la confiance et de la paix sur l'île, les défis auxquels sont confrontées les organisations actives dans ce travail, et la manière dont ces défis étaient relevés. Les résultats de ces recherches montrent que des mesures importantes sont prises par les organisations de la société civile pour venir à bout des préjugés et éradiquer les barrières, et qu'en mettant au point des liens avec des décideurs et des institutions internationaux, la société civile pourrait être un protagoniste plus puissant dans le processus de paix.

La sociedad civil y la construcción de confianza en Chipre

En Chipre, la sociedad civil desempeña un rol importante en la creación de espacios para el diálogo y en la cooperación entre las comunidades turca y griega chipriota. Investigaciones recientes, realizadas por el Centro Internacional para la Capacitación y la Investigación (intrac por sus siglas en inglés), han identificado cómo estos procesos han aportado confianza logrando construir paz en la isla, cuáles son los retos enfrentados por las organizaciones que participan en este trabajo, y cómo fueron abordados dichos retos. Asimismo, dichas investigaciones demuestran que las organizaciones de la sociedad civil han dado pasos importantes para superar prejuicios y barreras y que, al desarrollar relaciones adicionales con los formadores de políticas y con las instituciones, la sociedad civil podría convertirse en un actor más fuerte en el proceso de paz.

Sociedade civil e construção da confiança em Chipre

A sociedade civil em Chipre possui um papel-chave na criação de espaços para diálogo e cooperação entre as comunidades cipriotas turcas e gregas. Pesquisa recente do Centro de Treinamento e Pesquisa Internacional (INTRAC) identificou como estes processos têm contribuído para a construção da confiança e paz na ilha, os desafios que as organizações enfrentam neste trabalho e como eles estão sendo abordados. Ela demonstra que passos importantes estão sendo dados pelas organizações da sociedade civil para superar preconceitos e destruir barreiras e, ao desenvolver mais as ligações com formuladores de políticas locais e internacionais e com instituições, a sociedade civil pode ser um agente mais forte no processo de paz.     

The variable choice set logit model applied to the 2004 Canadian election

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties should locate at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain non-convergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including a competence and sociodemographic valance in a country where regional and national parties compete in the election. That is, the model allows voters to face different sets of parties in different regions. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c for regional and national parties and show that when c is high there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. An electoral survey of the 2004 election in Canada is used to construct a stochastic electoral model of the election with two regions: Québec and the rest of Canada. The survey allows us to estimate voter positions in the policy space. The variable choice set logit model is used to built a relationship between party position and vote share. We find that in the local Nash equilibrium for the election the two main parties with high competence valence, the Liberals and Conservatives, locate at the national electoral mean and the Bloc Québécois, with the highest competence valence, locates at the Québec electoral mean. The New Democratic Party has a low competence valence but remains at the national mean. The Greens, with lowest competence valence, locate away from the national mean to increase its vote share.